Howard Marks: How to Invest in a Bull Market Investing Advice from World's Respected Value Investor

요약 보기

결론: 투자 성패는 무엇을 사느냐보다 언제, 어떤 조건과 가격에 사느냐에 달려 있으며, 시장 과열 때 역행하는 것이 핵심이다. [강세장 3단계] 1단계: 소수의 뛰어난 사람만 개선 가능성을 인식하는 시기. 이때 매수하면 싼 가격에 사서 큰 수익을 낼 수 있다. 2단계: 대부분이 개선이 실제로 진행 중임을 이해하는 시기. 공정한 가격에 사는 수준이며 무난한 결과를 기대할 수 있다. 3단계: 모두가 상황이 영원히 좋아질 것이라 믿는 시기. 자산 가격에 낙관이 과도하게 반영되어 높은 가격에 사게 되고 큰 손실로 이어질 수 있다. [사례] 저자가 1970년대 초 시티은행에 입사했을 때 은행은 미국 최고 성장주 'Nifty 50'을 매수했다. 훌륭한 기업이니 가격은 상관없다는 것이 공식 이론이었지만, 이들은 매우 높은 가격에 거래되었고 5년간 보유한 투자자 대부분이 거의 모든 돈을 잃었다. 즉 고품질 자산을 사는 것만으로는 충분하지 않으며 3단계에서 매수했기 때문이라는 설명이다. [핵심 원칙] 대부분의 투자자는 경기 순응적(pro-cyclical)으로 행동하여 시장을 따라 사고판다. 저자는 역행적(counter-cyclical) 행동이 필수라고 본다. 극단적 상황에서는 다른 사람들이 대체로 틀리므로 반대로 행동해야 한다. 즉 남들이 가장 공격적으로 살 때 팔고, 가장 공격적으로 팔 때 사야 한다. [리스크 경고] 모든 것이 잘 되고 있을 때 안전하다고 믿는 것이 세상에서 가장 위험하다. 이런 믿음은 가격을 과도하게 올리고 나쁜 결과의 무대를 만든다. [버핏 인용] 다른 사람들이 자기 일을 덜 신중하게 처리할수록 우리는 우리 일을 더 신중하게 해야 한다. [대상 자산 언급] 특정 종목·지수·환율·금리의 1~3개월 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없음. 시장 전반의 사이클과 밸류에이션 위험에 대한 일반론만 제시됨. [출연자 전망] 현재 시장이 3단계(낙관 과열)에 가까운지에 대한 명시적 판단은 제한적이나, 낙관이 높은 시기의 위험을 강조하고 있어 전반적으로 신중한 입장으로 해석됨.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. it's not what you buy it's when you buy it under what conditions and at what prices so the key to investing is not buying good things it's buying things well you have to understand the difference between a Bueno and bien most investors behave Pro cyclically they follow the cycle rather than anti-cyclical as I will describe and it's essential in my opinion to behave counter-cyclically the cyclical ups and downs do not go on forever usually if they feel like they will they feel like there's either a virtuous circle that will make things go well forever or a harmful Circle that will make them go badly forever but usually that's not the case usually we have ups and downs and 45 years ago somebody did me the favor of explaining to me gave me the the greatest gift the greatest Regal the three stages of the bull market and if you understand this you're almost ready to become a professional the first stage when only a few exceptionally bright people understand that there could be Improvement the second stage when most people understand that Improvement is actually taking place and the third stage when everybody believes that things will get better forever so if you buy in the first stage when most people don't see a better future when there's very little optimism included in asset prices you'll get a bargain and you can make a lot of money if you do it in if you buy in the second stage when everybody understands that Improvement is taking place you don't get a bargain you do okay you follow the cycle you buy in at a fair level but if you buy in the third stage when everybody thinks things will get better forever and when asset prices reflect a great deal of optimism you pay high prices which set you up for substantial losses so it it the interesting thing about investing is it's not what you do it's when you do it it's not what you buy it's when you buy it under what conditions and at what prices so the key to investing is not buying good things it's buying things well you have to understand the difference between a Bueno and bien and it's buying bien that makes for Success when I started at Citibank which was uh uh 50 years ago this month the bank bought the stocks of what were called the nifty 50 the 50 best and fastest growing companies in America companies that were so terrific that it didn't matter what price you paid that was the official Theory and they were selling at very high prices because they were such wonderful companies and if you came in and you held them for five years my first five years in the business you lost almost all your money investing in the best companies in America so buying high quality assets is not the key because they were buying in the third stage the key is to understand where you are and to buy Assets in the first stage and be careful in the third stage that's a big part of today's message so it's important to practice what is called contrarian Behavior and to do the opposite of what others do at the extremes because the others are primarily wrong uh and there's a belief that things are safe when things are going well actually that's the riskiest thing the riskiest thing in the world is the belief that there's no risk since this makes prices very high and sets the stage for bad experiences we must sell when others are buying most aggressively and by when they're selling most aggressively and Buffett says it great as usual he says the less prudence with which others conduct their affairs the greater the Prudence with which we must conduct our own effect