저자: 노블레스Noblesse · 한국인
요약 보기
주식과 부동산 모두 '고점이라 안 산다, 저점이라도 안 산다'는 비투자자 심리를 비판하며, 하락장에서도 과감히 매수해야 한다고 주장한다. 2018~2021 부동산 붐은 비합리적이었다고 인정하면서도, 현재 하락장에서 매수하지 않는 사람들을 지적한다. 과거 20년 전 기준으로 '대출 풀로 강남 아파트, 전 재산 애플·테슬라 매수'를 제안하며 장기 보유의 성과를 강조한다. 동기부여성 메시지(잭 마 인용 등)로 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
go straight to Gangnam, take out a full loan, and buy an apartment? Hello, this is Noblesse. I believe there are characteristics among people who fail to make money from stocks and real estate. When stocks skyrocket, these people say there is too much of a bubble and absolutely refuse to buy. It is quite logical and understandable; in fact, it is not wrong.
However, the problem is that even when stocks crash and become very cheap, they still do not buy, claiming that the bottom is still far off. Well, actually, that might not be entirely wrong either. They argue that further drops are possible, the bear market isn't over yet, and that this might just be a slight cover bounce or a rebound is just around the corner.
They insist that it is still too expensive, that the recession hasn't even started yet, and that compared to what was right in the past, this drop is insignificant. Even if you tell them to buy, they absolutely refuse to buy at this price. So, to summarize in one word, they do not buy when stock prices rise, and they do not buy when stock prices fall.
Now, it is the same with real estate. Shall we be honest and say it again? What the non- homeowners who predict a market crash want is to scoop up properties cheaply during a downturn. These non- homeowners claim they are securing a single home for their own residence... They say that a house is a place to live, not something to buy, yet they buy their own homes low hoping prices will rise later and sell them at a high price.
In other words, while claiming to only think about actual residence, they are revealing a speculative mindset. Because these non-homeowning speculators driven by such desires think only in such one-dimensional, mechanical ways, they absolutely cannot register the title even when a market downturn occurs like this.
This is because they believe the price is still high compared to the past. During a downturn, they think prices will fall further. They believe they will make a greater profit if they buy after the price drops further, so due to the psychology of "let's wait a little longer," they never buy and cannot register the title.
To give a simple example, let's say there is an apartment that skyrocketed from 500 million won to 1 billion won. Doomsday prophets would argue that they will unconditionally buy if apartment prices fall by 30% to 40%. However, even if the apartment that rose to 1 billion won actually drops back down to 600 million won, they absolutely cannot buy it.
This is because these doomsday prophets—so-called investors— possess only a speculative mindset rather than an investment for actual residence; they only think about the price when it was 500 million won, and their entire thoughts and mindset are... They are stuck there. That is why they hope prices will drop to 500 million won or even lower; even when an opportunity arises now, they fail to recognize it, and despite the crash, they are still just looking up at the sky and performing a rain ritual.
Now, these people have absolutely no knowledge of economics. They have no understanding of credit money, the principles of supply and demand, interest rates, liquidity, or fundamental economic principles. They only look at prices—nominal prices, past prices rather than future values—and lack the knowledge and wisdom to recognize opportunities as opportunities.
Of course, I agree with that statement. We experienced a massive boom from 2018 through 2021. It was clearly an irrational boom. Honestly, I could n't quite understand why a single apartment was worth billions of won. I thought the bubble needed to burst a little, and many people probably thought so too.
I certainly understand up to this point. However, the problem is that even though real estate prices and stock prices have actually plummeted, people are saying the exact same thing. As you can see from the news right now, real estate transaction volume has hit rock bottom, and a massive downturn has arrived.
There are quite a few areas where prices have reverted to 2019 levels. Yet, many people, including those around me, still say the bottom is far off, hoping prices will fall further, and absolutely [don't] real estate They aren't buying; they simply can't. The very people who said they would buy unconditionally if prices returned to the past are absolutely not signing up even when those prices do.
Of course, they might be right; prices could fall further. We can never know the exact point. Did anyone expect Nvidia to riot like this? Who knew such a massive surge would occur in May, making the warnings to "sell and leave" for US stocks seem meaningless? So, what is the conclusion? When stocks skyrocket, people don't buy, claiming there is too much of a bubble; when they crash, they don't buy, claiming the bottom is still far off.
When real estate prices surge, people don't buy, saying the bubble will burst soon; and when it crashes like this, they don't buy again, claiming the bottom is still far off. It means they won't buy no matter what. So, the fact is that, whether it's stocks or real estate, those who held onto their investments for a long time have mostly made a lot of money, while those who keep talking about the peak have n't made a single penny and are still testing the waters.
Now, if you imagine going back to the year 2000—20 years ago—what would you do first? Exercise hard, spend time with your family, or spend more time with the people around you... If we set aside obvious and basic things like "I love you" and look at this solely from an economic perspective, shouldn't we head straight to Gangnam, take out a full loan, and buy an apartment?
And shouldn't we buy Apple and Tesla stocks with our entire fortune? For those who think, "Just because the past was like that, does that guarantee it will be the same in the future?", please just quietly press the back button and leave. I believe the idioms " reaping what you sow" and "justice will prevail" are words meant for doomsday prophets and the poor.
It is time to reflect on your own actions. If you are currently living a financially difficult and impoverished life, you must keep in mind that it is not the world's fault, but your own. To those who aspire to become wealthy in the future, I will conclude this video by sharing a snippet of a mentality video that truly impressed me.
It is an excerpt from a lecture by Alibaba founder Jack Ma. "Poor people think more than university professors but do less than blind people. If you give them freedom, they call it a trap; if you talk about small businesses, they say they won't make money; if you talk about big businesses, they say they don't have the money.
If you suggest trying something new, they say they lack experience; if you talk about traditional businesses, they say it is difficult; and if you suggest starting a new business, they say there are no experts." There is a chilling commonality among them. They like to easily ask questions on Google or portal sites and enjoy listening to the opinions of hopeless people.
Their lives end that way. Whether they are busy, have no time, are tired, or are old, they think more than anyone else, but few actually translate those thoughts into action. In their rooms, they are Elon Musk, Steve Jobs, and Marcus Kouberger, but in reality, they have achieved nothing. They waste their precious time criticizing others, yet they are incredibly stingy when it comes to allocating time to develop their own lives.
To justify their own failure to act, they come up with strange excuses again. They say things like, "Someone I know said that isn't good," "It takes a really long time," "You absolutely shouldn't invest that much time," or "I'd rather do something else," or "I'm going to do something else," and so on.
However, what you must keep in mind is that even while they are saying such things, someone else is seizing that opportunity, taking action, developing themselves, and eventually living a successful life. This is a famous quote from a lecture by Chairman Myrin. If you want to succeed, stop making excuses and just take action.
You must minimize thinking and maximize execution. Being born poor is not your fault, but living in poverty and dying in poverty is your responsibility. Now, will you be discouraged and fall in the face of poverty, or will you... and... Whether you overcome it or not depends on your own will. Now, let's all live diligently to become happy and wealthy people, as well as warm-hearted people who know how to give to those around us. I will end the video here. Thank you.
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