저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
버크셔는 '멍청한 짓'을 하는 타인들이 기회를 만든다고 보며, 현재 단기 성과에 쏠린 시장 참여자들 사이에서 장기 투자 기회가 있다고 말함. 일본 5대 상사 투자는 약 14% 수익률 대비 낮은 엔화 조달비용(약 0.5%)을 활용한 사례로, 지분 7.4%를 보유하고 9.9% 이상은 상대 합의 없이 취득하지 않겠다고 밝힘. 일본 투자 이익은 약 40~50억 달러 수준으로 언급됨. 버크셔의 장기 지속성과 국가적 자산으로서의 역할을 강조함.
다듬은 글
what gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things and it's that and I would say that well the 58 years we've been running birkshire I would say there's been a great increase uh in the number of people doing dumb things and they do big dumb things and the reason they do it to some extent is because they they can get money from other people so much easier than when we started so you could start 10 or 15 dumb insurance companies in the last 10 years and you could become rich uh if you were a Droid at it whether the business succeeded or not and the underwriters got paid and the the lawyers got paid and that creates if that's done on a large scale which it couldn't be done what 58 years ago couldn't get the money to do some of the dumb things that we wanted to do fortunately uh and uh so I don't I think that investing has disappeared so much from this huge capitalistic Market that anybody can play in but that the big money is in selling other people ideas that isn't outperforming in outperforming and uh I I think that I think if you don't run too much money which we do but if you're running small amounts of money I think I think the opportunities will be greater but then Charlie and I have always differed on this subject he he likes to tell me how gloomy the world is and and I I like to tell him we'll find something and and so far we've both been kind of right Charlie would wouldn't we budg an itch on that or not there there is there is so much money now in the hands of so many smart people all trying to outsmart one another and out promote one another getting more money out of other people and it's a radically different world from the world we started in and I suppose it will have its opportunities but it's also going to have some Pleasant episodes but they're trying to outsmart each other in arenas that you don't have to play I mean the if you look at that Government Bond Market if you the treasury bill Market I mean you got this one bill that's out of line with the others when we B over three billion of it the other day and and but those are people the world is overwhelmingly short-term focused and if you go to an investor relations call they're all trying to figure out how to fill out a sheet to show the earnings for the year and the management is interested in feeding them expectations that will slightly be beaten I mean that that is a world that's made to order for anybody that's trying to think about what you do that should work over five or 10 or 20 years and uh I I just think that I would love to be born today and go out with not too much money and hopefully turn it into a lot of money but and Charlie would too actually just like he he would find something to do I will just guarantee you uh and it wouldn't be exactly the same as before but he would have a big big big pile I would not like the thrill of losing my big pile into a small pile I like my big pile Just the Way It Is Well I like we agree on that incidentally okay we do you're one of the most extreme lovers of the big pile Charlie well tell them the story of the Japanese investment that that should be told again that that that's that's a nice story you well it was pretty simple I mean I I you know other back when I started other people were going through Playboy and I was going through Moody you know basically and uh uh there's a movie out called Turn every page which which I saw again for the second time a couple of days ago Lizzie gly but I recommend everybody in this world watch that because I turned every page in the past and uh I did it for thousands and thousands of pages in moodies and I did it at the Department of Public Utilities in in Boston I did at the insurance department that you just kept turning Pages well that that goes was on for for a while but now we need big ideas in order to find things and uh and what was your question Charlie you tell them about the Japanese well the Japanese thing was was simple I mean it I know I like looking at companies every I mean I like looking at figures about companies and and here were five very very substantial companies understandable companies most of them uh maybe all of them we've done business with in in a dozen different ways if you go a couple miles from where this place is the our last coal generating plant was built by one of the companies uh so here they were they were sitting as a group where they were earning we'll say 14% uh on what we were going to pay to buy them they were paying decent dividends they were going to repurchase shares in some cases they owned a whole bunch of businesses that we could understand as a group although we didn't mean we had deep understanding on any but we seen them operate and everything there there wasn't anything to it and at the same time we could take out the currency Risk by by financing in in Yen and that was going to cost us a half of one% well if you get 14% on one side and half a percent on the other side and you've got money that you know forever and they're doing intelligent things and they're sizable so we just started buying them I didn't even probably tell Greg until maybe 6 months after we' gotten going and and then when we hit 5% uh in all of them we announced on my birthday and uh 90th at that we owned over 5% and recently went over for the first time to visit with them and we're more than pleasantly surprised delighted with what we find there and now we own 7.4% of it we won't go over 9.9 without their agreeing and we sold another 164 whatever it is uh uh billion of a would have done for us if we only had $5 billion or something and it made $10 billion simply in that way yeah we would look like Heroes now 10 billion just sort of disappears as a a little dot in B's reports but it's fun and uh it is fun and and it is 10 billion doll and Charlie says it keeps and Charlie says it keeps me out of bars whenever I talk to him about and I probably talked to Charlie about this that the year after I started I don't but but who knows I mean I knew he'd like it I mean obviously and uh we try we tried to do every dollar we would do we could only do about 10 billion yeah yeah well not even that quite that much yeah uh but you know we are four or five billion ahead plus dividends and we got a carry that's terrific and and you know uh and they welcome us and they should welcome us and but we we love it the way they're operating we're not there to tell them what to do in the least uh uh so we didn't and but we did say we never go over 9.9 and we mean it and they they know that we'll be true to our word and I went over there partly to introduce Greg to those people because we're going to be with them 10 20 30 40 years from now and they may occasionally find something that we can do jointly and they look they look forward to doing that we look forward to it and uh in addition we have some other operating businesses in Japan so Greg do you have anything the only thing I would add is that um one as warning you went over there it was to um build the build the trust with these Japanese companies because we do hope there's long-term opportunities but fundamentally as you highlighted uh they're an incredible uh they've been a very good investment I'd also highlight the five meetings we had were really quite remarkable I mean these companies the culture and the history around it and how proud they are you know there's just moments of learning from them so it was it was just a great experience to to spend really two days with the five companies and an issue that we intended to be 56 billion of Yen that we were issuing and selling turned out to be over the years to to berkshire's value with very widespread probably four or500 million dollars a year and uh uh you know we'll just keep looking for more opportunities and and Japan we have burer is the largest borrower outside of corporate borrow outside of Japan that that exists and and Y we didn't set out to be that but it's it's turned out that way and and we're not done I mean it uh you know in terms of what may come along there and uh and we have some direct operations there as I mentioned uh uh and we've got some really wonderful Partners working for us and I don't have to do anything I worry that a corporate Raider like kyl icon or a group will buy up enough of these shares to take control of Berkshire and completely disregard Warren's philosophy of holding a lot of cash in US treasury bills and instead be greedy Reckless and highly speculative and ruin berkshire's position as a rock solid Financial Fortress I I think it's fair to say we think about it plenty but I don't I I don't I don't I don't worry enormously if we U it is true that that uh Greg and the directors will have a honey Moon period for a long time because simply because uh of the boats it will still remain I mean it it and and uh uh but it's true that eventually they will get judged based on how well our operation fares versus others now if we don't pay any dividends in 12 or 15 years you're talking a trillion and a half that it would take to take over and and uh uh I think if we can't that that limits the group they like to think about how much they can borrow against and all it doesn't work when you uh and and some of these there's nobody to come close to doing it themselves and I think that the important thing is that b Burkshire regarded be be regarded as a National Asset rather than a national liability we've got to be a plus to the country with our form of operation and we certainly have got a record which will then be 12 or 15 years longer done with much more Capital more companies more things will have happen where our hundreds of billions can work its way into the economy in terms of lots of jobs lots of products lots of behavior and it can be compared with other things so I I I I think we win out if if we deserve to win out and I think uh I think the odds of that happening are very very very very high Charlie well we we I don't spend much time worrying about something going to happen 50 years ago after I'm dead I I think if you sort of take care of each day's responsibilities pretty well and think ahead as well as you can then you just take the results as they fall so I'm I'm philosophical about but I I'm not I think he's Fring unnecessarily okay neither one of us are worded basically uh but we but but we plan we do plan and and and you know I've got a model in my mind of what birkshire has been that model's getting it's been modified plenty of times over 58 years I the one thing I knew initially is or very quickly was it shouldn't be a textile company that was that was an important decision and and we've just played the hand as it as it come along and and we made a few really good decisions and we we'll never make a decision that kills us the only only things that are a threat to the planet we don't have any answer for those but we do we keep ourselves in better shape than anybody else that and and we just aren't going to have big matties of debt that come along we aren't going to have uh insurance policies that be can be cashed in and mass and we will sit with a lar what looks like a huge amount of capital and it is a huge amount of capital but there's a huge amount of earning power there's a huge amount of diversity everything so our business model will be graded and it'll be graded against a lot of a whole lot of people that we'd like to be graded against so uh I I I think we're handing something very secure over to the Future and I think we've got the shareholder base like nobody has I mean there isn't anybody in the country that I know of unless they've had a sharehold an employee owned company prior to going public or something of the sort but but this is the product of of you know of 58 years of of regarding the shareholder as the owner of the company but what does that mean that means having happy customers it means being it means being welcomed by your community rather than having them turn you away it means that the government feels better with you if there's a financial crisis because you're you can provide something that actually the company the country can't under some circumstances and you'll be there and if it and the same time it'll be good for the business uh and we will have crises of one sort or another but if they aren't challenging the planet which worries you in terms of some of the threats that we have we're we'll be a plus to the United States and if we're plus to the United States we we'll survive
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