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everyone's in a blue moon typically every 20 years but more recently a little more frequently than that you have these bubbles that form over several years and dominate everything then they break and once again they dominate everything according to Jeremy Grantham this video will discuss their recession that took out the whole generation Welcome to our Channel like And subscribe to get this video started first things first this is what Jeremy said the bubbles aren't difficult to notice but then again that's where my expertise lies so we can ensure the reliability of his forecast he said that when I consider all the bubbles out there the few that exhibit your rational investment patterns and overwhelming enthusiasm stand out like many Sorcerers 1929 U.S housing bubble of 2007 and a.com boss of 2000 land and housing Bubbles and stock market bubbles in Japan and in 1989 were likely the largest of their kind in the history of mathematics therefore their genuine articles but there was a fascinating near Miss in 1972 with the Nifty 50.
it didn't surge relatively high or get quite as crazy as others but it was on the verge of oil problems so it plummeted precipitously inflation adjusted the 62 percent drop in 1973-74 was still the most significant drop since the 1930s hence my universe and here we are having checked of all the indications unique to those few occurrences and wild Behavior the Bitcoins and cryptocurrencies of the world the variety store AMC meme stocks quantumscape and very rapid Excel generation the year before in 2020.
when the NASDAQ more than doubled in the year 2020 and even from the beginning pre-covered was up almost 60 despite a massive Wipeout from covert rapid acceleration is a characteristic you have to see crazy behavior then there is a unique case and that is on the upside the Blue Chips start to win the stocks with a verifiable track Park are the entire portfolio of 25 growth stocks many of which have yet to generate any profits despite the portfolio manager's conviction that they will do so shortly as a result the decline in the market began pretty early and has continued right into the depths of the seller making the current market environment fail early familiar to that of the.com bubble of the year 2000 between 1900s and 2002 the average price of a vital commodity fell by 70 percent when adjusted for inflation furthermore we maintain our index of the GMO 36 most significant equally weighted Commodities Jeremy added this is a broader assessment of the state of the Commodities Market as a whole not just all and if you recheck the index today you'll see that it's really down only 10 points from its peak in the early 1900s since 2002 it has multiplied by three the price of the specific vital commodity has tripled since 2002.
a significant future issue primarily since we have yet to invest much in capital expenditures despite our dependence on them the world has no large copper lithium Cobalt nickel Etc just waiting to be crushed and released onto the market unless you can find a technological solution the green economy will soon run out of these metals to preserve our current resources we need new batteries that don't rely on recycling procedures as heavily Etc given the prevalence of Bad actors in the world as seen in Ukraine's relationship with Russia it's not surprising that the Region's food supply would be stable another thing to keep in mind is that every developed country in the world except Israel is experiencing a severe population decline China's current overall fertility rate is around 1.6 at the same time it needs to be 2.1 to replace the population meaning that each New Birth Cohort is currently about the quarter smaller than it needs to be this means that the population of 20 year olds starting their lives right now will inevitably decrease over the course of the next two decades metals and food feel inflationary and you've got a complex intricate scenario that can take up an hour as we move from fossil fuels to Green energy squeezing your workers for the occasional 5 or 10 years is one thing but we've been doing it to ourselves since 1975 when we deal with some pretty intractable inflationary challenges that's 25 years 35 years 47 years and a lot of it isn't profitable in any manner people who do that risk losing their ability to participate in the economy as productive healthy adults Enterprises probably a better handful of companies than we have at any time before in terms of their unique ability to move fast and make new ideas but if you look down further in the system you'll find that the level of new and prizes are undertaken in the U.S is way down the number of people working in companies that are only one or two years old is now less than half of what it was in the 1970s and per capita basis we are not as broadly adventurous and capitalistic as in the 1970s although most people are aware of the decline in productivity from 1.8 to 0.9 during the past 15 years the difficulty lies in the fact that when you add to productivity you also add growth and cost is in the workforce and whereas in the 1960s you are adding 1.5 percent a year to the workforce in the the next 20 years we'll be lucky if we only subtract 0.2 so we've had an enormous drop of 1.7 a year in labor and maybe more and we've had a pretty steady drop of 0.9 in productivity which indicates that all is not healthy in addition to that Jeremy added the central poison to the system is a dazzling increase in inequality in 1965 when they returned to Japan they would have been roughly 40 years old no rules on that subject are around 40 years old this is a social contract another thing that occurs as inequality grows is a recession we now complete with New Mexico Brazil and Russia for the lowest genuine ratio a measure of income inequality within the developed world since a high genome ratio is positively associated with the social contract it can affect many things this is because the social contract is defined as the expectation that one can depend on and be responsible to one's neighbor it's big in Japan and not too bad in South Korea and Canada but it's gone to hell in the United States He also commented on this thank goodness we had to fight World War II in the 1930s and 1940s when the social contract was in good shape and people felt they owed the city corporations owned the city and individuals of their country and their city as it should be the federal minimum wage is roughly half what it was in the 1960s after adjusting for inflation this is absurd at the very least the government should raise the minimum wage to keep Pace with Rising living costs which Jeremy supports under both Democratic and Republican administrations the pendulum of power has swung too far in favor of the wealthy it must be shifted back a little bit by taxation inducement and the education of the people learning is the most effective weapon against India Justice and that is what Jeremy has to say about all those inflations that we've experienced before what are your thoughts about his comments let us know in the comment if you find this video helpful hit the like button and if you're new hit the Subscribe button thank you for watching and we'll see you in our next video
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