저자: Stockology채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라(TSLA)는 적정 가치보다 고평가되어 있다는 결론이다. 주가 급락 전후 시가총액은 500억 달러에서 480억 달러로 줄었다. 밸류에이션 측면: 후행 PER은 63배로 최근 12개월 순이익이 마이너스(적자)임을 의미하고, 선행 PER은 123배로 1달러를 벌기 위해 123달러를 투자해야 해 수익률이 1%에 못 미친다. 발표자는 높은 선행 PER이 성장 또는 고평가를 뜻하는데 테슬라는 둘 다라고 봤다. 수익성 측면: 자기자본이익률(ROE)은 음수이고, 매출 70억 달러 대비 매출총이익은 16억 달러, EBITDA는 3억 2천만 달러에 그쳤다. 매출원가 54억 달러로 이익률이 너무 낮다고 지적했다. 비용 구조: 연구개발비는 많이 쓰고 있으나 판매관리비가 15억 달러로 과다해 경영상 문제로 봤다. 영업손실은 약 5억 4,700만 달러, 이자비용은 2억 달러였다. 법인세는 2,600만 달러로 낮았다. 재무상태: 현금 30억 달러, 재고 20억 달러(전년 대비 2배로 증가, 관리 미흡 우려), 공장·설비 투자 90억 달러 등 인프라 투자가 긍정 요인으로 언급됐다. 장기부채 60억 달러, 자기자본 40억 달러에서 순이익 기준 6억 7,000만 달러 적자가 발생했다. 결론: 인프라 투자와 미래 잠재력은 있지만 경영 문제(비용 관리, 재고, 적자)가 해결되기 전에는 단기·장기 모두 투자 매력이 없다는 판단이다. 발표자는 매수를 권하지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 주가는 현재 높은 수준이며 이익이 뒷받침되지 않는다는 비관적 견해이다.
다듬은 글
What is Tesla's company value? A lot of people think it's overvalued as a company and there isn't a backbone to support the high share price that it has. I'm looking at three reasons why that is shown uh just in their financials page. To get started though, the market cap was 50 billion early in the morning, but the stock price dropped 3% 3.85% uh until close.
Now the market cap is 48 billion. So their share price has an extremely high effect on their market cap and this is because their amount of shares outstanding is really low and their share price is really high. Okay. Now the first reason that people think this is an overvalued stock is because of the price to earnings ratio.
The price to earnings ratio is how much you pay as an investor to earn $1. The trailing 12 months price to earnings ratio is $63. This shows me that their net income has been negative for that trailing 12 months or the last four quarters. The forward price to earnings ratio, which is the next four quarters that analysts estimate, is positive here and it's really high.
This is showing me that I have to spend $123 to make $1. That's less than 1% profit uh per $123 I invest in it. A high forward price to earnings ratio really shows that either a company's growing or a company is overvalued. I think Tesla is in this case both. The price to earnings is calculated by taking the price of the stock to the and divided by the earnings per share.
Earnings per share is taken from the taking the net income and dividing it by the shares outstanding. So the higher the net income, the higher the earnings per share. the higher earnings per share, the lower price to earnings. They're barely earning anything compared to what their stock share price is valued at.
And that's why a lot of people say that it's overvalued. I'm going to be looking at that once I go into their financial page on their income statement. One other thing I can look at on here is their management effectiveness, which I think is a problem with Tesla. Their return on equity is negative. That means that the shareholders equity is getting a negative return.
Tesla's net income last year was over 600 million that they lost negative 600 million. That shows me that the shareholders equity isn't getting a positive return. Onto their revenue, they have 7 billion in revenue, which is awesome. Uh that's the reason why people say Tesla's not overvalued because they have high revenue.
The problem is that their gross profit is only 1.6 billion. So, I'm really interested in seeing where that revenue is going to. Their IBA earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization is 320 million, which is their take-home. They're only taking home 320 million out of 7 billion. That's a management problem.
The second thing I can go into is their income statement. Right off the bat, um, they have a problem. It's a management problem. Their total revenue this year is 7 billion which has increased over the past few years which is good but their cost of revenue is really high at 5.4 billion. So their profit margins are extremely small for a company like Tesla they need to be much larger to be valued at such a high share price.
I can see that on their operating expenses here they're spending a good chunk of money on on re research and development. That's where their earnings are really going to. A bigger problem, however, is that their earnings are going to administrative costs. This is another management issue because they should manage that to be a much lower amount because if that wasn't so high, $1.5 billion, they wouldn't have uh negative net income.
But because they have negative income, they have a negative trailing PE and they have a negative return on equity. So in investors aren't initially interested because they're not make they won't be be making money from that. Continuing uh they have 119 million in other income. That's okay. So their earnings before interest in taxes they lose income.
It's negative 547 million earnings. Then their interest expense is 200 million. So that's adding insult to injury. They're paying 200 million interest on the debt they have incurred which is a problem because that's been taken straight out of earnings which could have been spent on re research and development instead.
I can also see that their income before tax is746 million and their income tax has been 26 million. That's good. It's low. So I'm not looking at that too much. On the bottom here, I can see their net income is negative at negative7 674 million. That's why they have a negative return on equity and that's why they have negative PE ratio.
Okay, great. Their balance sheet. But before we get into that, would you invest in Tesla knowing that their income is negative, knowing that their earnings is going to administrative costs and interest costs? So ask yourself that question. Now, we can see on their asset sheet that they have some good numbers.
They have 3 billion in cash. They have 500 million in net receivables. That's money that hasn't been paid to them yet. They have 2 billion in inventory. And I don't like that. I like to see a low inventory cost because they can manage that. That well, that shows that they're managing their inventory well.
They've doubled their inventory since the past year. So, either they're planning to sell that inventory or they're not managing it well. And I think they're not managing it well. I can see at the long-term investments, they have 500 million. I mean, I think if they have three billion in cash, they should be investing more into their investments because they need to turn a profit.
The property and plant equipment. This is extremely important line especially for Tesla. Tesla made the factory. Uh this is this is one of their this is one of their most important lines for the balance sheet. I mean, their revenue is going to the cost of producing their cars. And if they already have the property and plant equipment to cut that cost of revenue, wow, they'd actually be making a lot of money and it'd grow even more exponentially.
They've made some serious investments into infrastructure. So, that's really important. That's one of the reasons that maybe people could say they're not overvalued because they've made these investments because they made their battery factory. And I think it's really great seeing that actually on their balance sheet.
On to their liabilities. 3 billion in accounts payable. So, this is money they haven't paid out yet, which um that's not so great. Their short-term debt is really low compared to their total debt. It's only 1 billion. they aren't paying that so soon. So, they have time to pay the other debt. So, that means they have time to build their infrastructure, make the earnings, and then pay the debt instead of incurring more additional interest.
We can see on their long-term debt that it's 6 billion, and that's what they're paying their interest expense for. that's cutting into their earnings which is cutting into their net income causing them to have a negative net income and again a negative return on equity a negative earnings per share and also a reason behind the opinion of Tesla being overvalued.
On to the last part we have stockholders equity and we have 4 billion in stockholders equity and those that 4 billion is being turned into 670 million. So that's why as an individual investor I don't like it because they're not earning money even though that the share price is so high which is great.
Uh there's no backbone to it other than the infrastructure they've created. uh the future potential that they have. And regardless of that, they have management issues that need to be resolved before an individual like myself would be interested in investing in them, either short-term or long-term. They have extremely strong revenue, but the cost of revenue is too high.
The profit margins are too low. That's on management. They have long-term debt which has a cost of interest as well as just the debt which is a management issue. They aren't managing their inventory. How I'd like to see it. I see like to see it a little lower knowing that they're managing their inventory.
That's a management issue. I see that they have a negative net income. That's a management issue. And they're selling and selling general and administrative cost is really high. That's another management issue. And I think these are the things that are why people have the opinion that Tesla is overvalued.
One of the reasons that maybe they're not overvalued is because they've made significant in infrastructure investments uh 9 billion to property plant equipment which is great. It shows that they're bringing down their cost of revenue this next year and also a reason behind positive earnings and a really high PE ratio.
Of course, their high PE ratio is because of their share price being so high and barely having any earnings. So, for me, I think their share price is too high just because their earnings aren't enough and aren't as high as they should be. What do you think? Are they a buy for me? No. If you like financial education videos and stock market videos, like and subscribe.
Comments 0