저자: AlexCo · 외국인
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엔비디아 2020년 3분기 실적이 EPS 2.91 상회, 매출 473억 달러로 기대치를 웃돌았다고 평가. 2020 연간 성장률 40% 가정 시 적정가 1273달러, 보수적 20% 성장 가정 시 2021년 말 약 698달러 목표. 기술적 매수 트리거 520·496·473달러, 상단 저항 549·600달러 제시. 게이밍 신규 콘솔 사이클, 데이터센터·클라우드, 자율주행 인포테인먼트, ARM 인수 효과, AI 등을 장기 강세 근거로 제시. 코로나 백신 뉴스는 리스크로 언급.
다듬은 글
nvidia's earnings q3 2020 shares has been released today on the 18th of november and they've been the top bottom and the revenue future forecast is higher than what's expected so it's all good news so sticking me on this video i will break down my analysis from fundamentals to technicals to charting so speak to you soon welcome back to family investment my name is alex co and man nvidia really smashed it again for quarter 3 20 20.
despite the fact that the earnings was beating even the future focus is beating the stock share price has dropped from five three seven to five twenty as of the after hours uh today so let's go to recap what's happened so the eps of 2.57 expected they beat it by 2.91 revenue of 441 billion expectation and debate by 473 and guess what the revenue year on year compared this quarter to the last year quarter was 57 up and the next forecast for quarter 4 they are expecting to have a 4.8 billion sales remember they have already achieved 4.73 but expect 4.8 billion so if you look at the detail the gaming sector the 3080 rtx if you're a gaming video game fanatic the gaming stock sales sold by 37 percent you know people some people like you only i prefer the quality quarter because i am witnessing a superior growth stock here revenue from quarter two or 3.86 it moved 22 from quantity to quality 22 the income revenue from quarter to net income from quality to quality income from 622 to 1.33 it's a hundred percent net income profit and now let's work the valuation of nvidia with the new data we've received from this earnings so first i want to work out the growth so to work on the growth i looked at 2019 which the revenue is 11.71 billion and then with the 2020 revenue i've added you know q1 q2 q3 and also the forecast for q4 it came out to 16.46 billion and we do the tally up it's a 40 growth rate for 2020 spectacular and now let's work the eps so the eps of again q1 q2 q3 and 4 is 9.81 and if you put a 40 growth against the future earnings with the graham's intrinsic calculator it's coming out as staggering and impressive 1273.30 it's almost a thousand bucks here it's like almost three times where you are just now but then again that's 40 growth because the kovic 19 less likely will repeat the same 40 growth for nvidia so i think i'll take a step back and let's be a bit more realistic because uh let's take a notch down so if you take a notch start at 30 percent growth instead same eps you will be getting 985.60 but let's take a notch down let's take it down to 20 growth because after all they've developed what they need to develop the cycle is over that's 20 growth everything's slowing down data centers expanding okay let's take worst case scenario worst case 20 eps 9.81 what would you get 697.80 that's my realistic figure my target for 2021 in future is 9 697.80 meaning 20 growth for q1q2q q2q3q4 in 2021 so that's my forecast of ending 2021 i'm expecting nvidia to burst close to 700 per share all right now let's go to the technical analysis to work out the buy triggers me using the fibonacci retracement tool so the first buy trigger is 520 the futures already show that it's 520 so if anybody wants to buy nvidia think that nvidia is really bullish for me i really feel is bullish you can buy nvidia at first trigger 520 for me if nvidia still keeps dropping for some silly bizarre reason i don't so what reason could push it down it will go at 496 that will be my second buy trigger i will buy another lot at 496.
or i can wait for the third trigger which is about 473 so these are my three levels but be careful remember i said that there's so much upside so what is the next two ceiling support so the next ceiling if it does go up on momentum or morgan stanley change weighting uh analysis ratings we're looking about 549.
so we're looking at 549 for the next ceiling up and if they beat that ceiling if they sustain they can hold the support there really really well we'll be looking at 600 so that ceiling is a really hard ceiling to go beyond so if you can beat they can go 600 and then until the end of the year until quarter next year i think uh we should see around about 600 mark before i go so why is it dropping i mean why are people selling off why is nvidia dropping so the only risk to nvidia that you have to think of besides the arm failing is nvidia is still a covet 19 catalyst stock so because it's been boosted by work from home it's been boosted by state home stocks so any vaccine news will be will be negative for nvidia but you and me as an investor we are here we are watching me and you agree with me nvidia is a long-term bullish company a company is selling about 400 billion there's chance really good likelihood in the next five seven ten years for it to hit the one trillion dollar company so now i want to give my final thoughts on why i'm bullish i'm going to give you five key points of why i am so bullish about nvidia so the first one my first point is nvidia is still into gaming gaming next generation console is just cycle run through the playstation is just changeover the the computer gaming is just changeable the xbox series just changed over year 2021 is a gaming evolution and that's what will boost number two nvidia data center cloud computing work from home will be the norm from now on a bit more data center being built and what else to go besides nvidia and also the rival amd so that's my second reason why i'm so bullish about nvidia third reason is infotainment in the car at autonomous vehicles nvidia will play a huge role in the near future that might be the third string to the fiddle to push them even more fourth reason why i'm so bullish by nvidia is the arm takeover arm takeover will take about at least a year to 18 months and once that comes in it will be the fourth string in the fiddle to just strum that nice chord and finally ai and super computer is where we'll see beyond 2025 to 2030 so much more uh changes design will come true but with all this influx of money coming in it's just gonna help nvidia boost the development their research even further so this is me please leave a comment below if you agree or disagree with me i'm bullish by nvidia i've got my buy trigger which i'm going to be complying to by own volume get it growing if i miss this boat i'm gonna regret it if they do dip on nvidia if they go break the third level uh trigger i'm gonna buy some more because it's so much good turn great ceo jensen huang has done a great job doug jensen huang will be watching this but if you ever watch this thank you very much jensen huang i'm just witnessing a technological rev evolution here and i'm glad to be part of this generation all right guys thank you and hope to see you next video all right before i go before i say goodbye please do like and subscribe on my youtube channel follow me on facebook and if you want support me on patreon as well so i can produce content like this every single day for you guys to give you guys value so please do share be sure to share this video to help us grow our youtube channel yeah all right guys three two one bye
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