저자: JoseNajarro · 외국인
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엔비디아 3분기 실적(매출 47억 달러, 전년比 +57%)은 양호하나 조정 매출총이익률 62.6%로 가이던스 하회, 4분기 가이던스 48억 달러(컨센 44.3억 상회). 데이터센터 매출은 중국 고객의 멜라녹스 제품 미구매로 하락 우려. 자동차·클라우드 파트너십 소식 긍정적. 재무상태는 현금 101억 달러로 총부채 약 70억 달러를 상회해 탄탄. 기술적으로 500~575달러 거래량 지지대 언급, 소폭 추가 매수 의향 표명(장기 보유 관점).
다듬은 글
on today's episode we are gonna take a look at one of my favorite companies right now this is actually a tier one stock for me and they just reported earnings and for those that don't know and can't see the picture up here obviously i'm talking about nvidia they reported earnings today and the stock price is pretty quiet after earnings so today's episode is going to be no different than most of my other episodes we're going to start off by taking a quick look at an overview of their earnings and the company then we're going to take a look at some financial numbers and at the end we're going to talk about my overall thoughts on the business like always my name is jose naharo by day i'm a senior electrical engineer and i do believe maybe that's why i'm so excited about nvidia and a lot of semiconductor companies just because of my professional background and my educational background um semiconductors clouding companies are usually some of my favorite like i mentioned right by day i'm an electrical engineer by night i'm a self-taught investor looking for new positions to add onto my portfolio for long term gains if you're new to the channel don't forget to hit the subscribe button and don't forget to hit the thumbs up it helps the channel out so much and i truly truly appreciate it remember nothing here should be taken as advice as i am not a professional and before we go any further go down to the comments below and let me know what are your thoughts on nvidia right now you're buying are you selling are you holding or are you are you waiting for a pullback before entering while you're down there you should also see a link to my discord channel it's free to anybody that wants to join this video should be out on thursday and usually thursday and fridays are the days i purchase i do my weekly purchases of stock so if you guys want to see what i bought what i buy feel free to join the disco channel like i said it's free for anybody that wants to join and i post every time i buy and sell while you're down there you should also see a link to weeble if you sign up and follow that link we both could get a free stock i think right now they're doing a special where we get two free stocks and that's just great return trade for for doing almost nothing all right so right now we're going to talk about nvidia ticker nvda to all my podcast listeners after hours it is down about two percent so earnings seem to meet expectations because the stock price hasn't moved too much right sitting after hours is about 526 dollars and 50 cents year-to-date returns with those stock price are around 120 so congratulations to all the long-term holders of nvidia obviously one of my favorite companies right now a tier one stock in my portfolio and i have nine tier one stocks in my portfolio right now compared to the all-time highs it is down 10 and the market cap right now with the current price after hours is roughly 325 billion dollars so for those that don't know right nvidia creates graphics cards gpus that pretty much the best way to say is they run the world so these graphics cards are used for multiple aspects in our everyday life from gaming to data center high power computing and a artificial intelligence computing as well to professional visualization and auto where they have form of autonomous vehicle system going on as well so these are the four markets they're heading two of these markets i'm completely bullish on and that's the gaming and data center we're going to take a look at those are the biggest markets that nvidia is hitting right now so let's take a look at their earnings so earnings for the third quarter of fiscal year of 2021 and this sometimes confuses a lot of people um because when we look at numbers we're looking at numbers that say 20-21 so sometimes people believe this might be an expectation for the upcoming years but no their fiscal year is almost a year ahead of the actual calendar year so i just wanted to mention because i think last in my last video someone might have mentioned that quarter three non-gaap earnings per share were two dollars and ninety one cents um it didn't be expectation by 36 cents and gap earnings per share worth two dollars and 12 cents which beat expectation by 43 cents so first thing we're gonna see is this company is profitable in both non-gaap earnings per share and gap earnings per share and a lot of people like always they're probably going to be shocked that i'm talking about a company that's making money in both non-gaap earnings and in gaap earnings revenue right now is 4.73 billion dollars for this quarter and that's up 57 compared to the same time last year this is insane right 57 year-to-year growth is something that um not many companies can do especially a company with this type of revenue this is a giant right now um 320 what what do we say 325 billion dollars of market cap and pulling this type of revenue growth this is pretty impressive adjusted gross margins were 62.6 62.6 versus the overall consensus of 65.3 and the company's guidance of 65.5 so i do believe maybe this might be a big reason for the stock price to be down all right right now their gross margins did not meet the expectations and it did not meet the guidance that nvidia gave next they also gave guidance for the fourth quarter of which is this upcoming quarter right now they expect revenue to be 4.8 billion dollars plus or minus 2 and the overall consensus given by by wall street was about 4.43 billion so this is a lot higher than the overall consensus that wall street was expecting to be honest i'm not i'm surprised the stock price hasn't flown a bit because of this guidance right here nvidia during the call they did mention something pretty important in in their in their earnings call that they expect data center revenue to kind of decline in the quarter compared to this quarter and is pretty much driven by a chinese customer not purchasing melanox networking products so for those that are not familiar recently i think two quarters would go i think it might have been quarter quarter one of 2021 that nvidia acquired a company called melanox to overall increases artificial intelligence market in the in the clouding market world um so right now one of those customers is saying from from melomox it's not gonna be purchasing some product i'm not a hundred percent sure what was the reason for this this loss of customer or if it's just a loss of time right now especially with covet situation right sometimes management and and money flows up a bit slower so maybe next quarter after this we might be seeing it but they're saying that hey be careful of of data center revenue it is going to be a decline now i can see why the stock price is down a bit right we're having some great news but we're also coming in with some bad news next there were this one's going to be a pretty simple there were a lot of recent news that came out for nvidia this quarter i kind of just pulled out the ones i enjoyed the most in the data center there were so many upcoming highlights from the data center so if you guys want to look at them all i would say i definitely recommend going to their investors website and reading them all the ones that really grabbed my attention are the following the first one is they shared news that the amazon aws and oracle cloud infrastructure announced general availability of cloud computing instances based on nvidia's a100 gpu the a100 gpu is there is their clouding clouding server graphics units and this is following google cloud platform and microsoft azure which are already using these these gpus so that's impressive right now it seems like almost all the clouding server providers are using nvidia's gpu which is pretty impressive the second thing they mentioned um is just like i mentioned a lot of implementation to products by strong customers and they also announced a lot of road maps of future products being used here in the data center realm also they talk a bit about the arm acquisition i've done a few videos on that if you guys want to check out my previous catalog in the gaming the biggest thing that came out for them is this quarter they released the geforce rtx 3000 series gpus which are doing amazing right now they're sold out everywhere the only reason i know this is because i'm trying to pick one up but nothing is available from the 30 70 to the 30 90 either or i would gladly take then they also a few things in the automotive world uh they announced that with mercedes-benz that they are doing a partnership that they are going to power the next s-class i forget was the the next x-class sedans um with the n-box ai cockpit system they announced with hyundai motor the entire lineup of hyundai kia genesis models will come standard with nvidia drive and they also announced that china's lee auto will develop its next generation of electric vehicles using nvidia's drive agx which is a software defined platform for autonomous vehicles so i this is pretty cool i mean if i i feel like lee auto is an ev company that many people might not be talking about right now everybody's probably too focused in in neo right now that um this might be one flying under the radar and if they're making partnerships with nvidia that kind of gives some form of i want to say some form of stain that's probably the easiest way i can talk i can play but it puts some a spotlight on lee's auto that hey they're working with a big company so it might be something other investors should take a look at all right so next let's take a look at some financial numbers but before we do that guys you should see a link down there below to one of my favorite services right now and that's seven investing where every month they recommend seven stocks for only seventeen dollars a month if you use my link or my promo code jose you get 10 off the first month man i say yes this is an affiliate program but i use their services and would recommend it to anyone so now let's take a look at the future growth first nvidia is expected to grow its revenue 14.7 annually for the next three to five years i consider a growth stock anything over fifteen percent so being right there in the borderline nvidia is still a strong grower we can see that revenue increasing over the years and these are just analyst expectations what i do also see is nvidia has been profitable for the past two three years it has had positive free cash flow from operations and it has had positive cash flow from operations which is good even though i'm gonna take a look at their balance sheet seeing that they are profitable and that they have positive cash flow it helps me not be as strict on their balance sheet regardless i still like to see a very strong balance sheet next i i also wanted to take a quick look at the revenue breakdown of this quick earnings just to see how that revenue was broken down so total revenue like i mentioned this quarter was 4.7 billion dollars and that was up 57 compared to the same time last year a huge portion of that actually came from gaming gaming was 2.27 billion up 37 compared the same time last year and the overall consensus was actually 2.06 billion so this be expectation data center is the second biggest coming at 1.9 billion this is up 162 162 compared to the same time last year the overall consensus was 1.8 billion so they beat out as well um so these are great news the other two sectors that they hit are the profession a professional visualization that's down about 27 compared to the same time last year but this is such a small portion of the revenue that it doesn't really drive much revenue right now then the auto industry the auto right now is down 23 compared to the same time last year this is their smallest section so again it doesn't really affect the revenue much but it's good to see how the current trends are going right now next let's take a quick look at their balance sheet and here in all honesty all i'm care about is two things they're cash and cash equivalents right now and the type of that they're doing they obviously just purchased mellanox i want to see how their liabilities are doing right now and how much cash do they have at hand so if we take a look at cash they have about 10.1 billion dollars of cash and then if we take a look at short-term debt short-term that is about 1 billion and long term debt is about 6 billion so they have a total of selling 7 billion dollars of debt so this tells me this company has plenty of cash at hands to pretty much pay off all its total current debt right now it is profitable and it does have positive cash flow from operations so this is a very very strong balance sheet next let's take a look and end this episode with my thoughts but before we do that guys don't forget to check out my second channel jose naharo entrepreneur i've been doing this for the past six seven years and throughout this process i've learned a lot about how to grow myself and how to become more successful so i decided to create this second channel to kind of discuss everything i've learned throughout the process so make sure to check it out like i said jose nahara entrepreneur i post new videos every friday sundays and wednesdays um today was the three biggest books that have changed my life completely so make sure to check out the channel if you guys want to continue to support the channel check out the cool merch self taught investor i thought it was the perfect merge for me since i am a self-taught investor i've been doing this for the past six seven years all right so now let's go back to my thoughts first thing i want to do is take a quick look at technical analysis like i mentioned i'm a long-term investor so i don't put too much heavy weight on technicals but it is something i like looking at the first thing i want to see is it overextended from its moving averages i can see right now nvidia is actually sitting with its averages at the moment and tends to trend with them pretty carefully so that's a big plus the second thing i'm trying to look at is where we have a lot of volume in this stock and right now we have a lot of volume we can see with this technical that i use between i'm going to give you guys a big range it's between 500 and 575 and you might be like jose that's a huge rain range like i said i am not a trader so it's not like i'm looking for the perfect price point right now i use this to see where in general are we seeing some form of support with the stock price and usually it is where there's a bunch of volume so things aren't looking good in both response so what do i like about nvidia the first thing overall market is in right it's hitting amazing markets uh mainly the gaming and the clouding market which are the two biggest markets it's continuing to innovate its products we see all every quarter we're always hearing about a new product that they're working on for again those markets the cloudy market and the gaming market but we also hear new products being used for the clouding and for the visual professional even though i'm not too excited about those markets they're still growing there which is good the overall very aggressive acquisitions that they're doing they just purchased melanox and right now they are going through the acquisition of arm which i believe is going to be such a huge deal for nvidia if it does go through um it has been approved by both boards but now it just has to go through the normal legal approval process we also have strong revenue growth all around we saw that huge growth 57 compared to the same time last year huge growth in gaming and huge growth in cloudy market i like their balance sheet we saw plenty of cash to pretty much pay off all their total debt and then that guidance they gave us was also pretty impressive in the form of total revenue i'm also liking that the stock price is not overextended and that it's sitting at around prices where the volume is pretty heavy right now um there are a bit things that i don't like about nvidia and the first thing is i i honestly it is a tier one stock so i there's not much i don't like um but obviously the decrease in in data center revenue this upcoming quarter in the guidance is something to worry about that's the first thing we have to do a little more research and understand why that customer did not purchase those mellanox products the second thing i might want to say that i don't like let me think let me think let me think i i probably would say the second thing would be that uh because of the new acquisition with arm is going to be a 10 billion dollar in cash and then the rest i think is going to be through stock shares it's gonna one kind of deplete that cash flow so they're gonna have to increase that that um so that's something we're gonna see and the second thing is it's gonna make some four month dilution even though i do believe the overall acquisition is such a smart deal i do believe it is going to affect the balance sheet but at the same time it's going to affect earnings as well so it's a win it's it looks it depends on which way you look at it if you look at it in just the pure balance sheet form away it's obviously gonna look negative if you look at it as a total picture it kind of evens itself out and i still believe it's a great acquisition for nvidia so there's not much i don't like at the moment so that's it for today's episode i i'm not sure yet like i mentioned i purchase every thursday and friday so my purchases should be coming out either tomorrow or the day after um and actually when i release the video it should be today or tomorrow i'm not sure with nvidia it actually i i i wouldn't mind adding to some position right now increa increasing my overall exposure in nvidia at current prices but i'm not going to go in with the super huge position and try to enter it's just going to be a small position to add on to my overall exposure so i hope you guys enjoyed today's episode take care have a good night and see you next time you
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