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2020년 2분기 엔비디아 실적이 시장 기대를 크게 상회했다고 주장. 데이터센터 매출 17억5천만달러(+167%) 등 성장 강조. 발언자는 과거 75주를 팔았다가 후회했으며 2020년 8월경 42주(약 2만2천달러, 평균 495달러)를 재매수. 그레이엄 내재가치 계산 시 843~1213달러 제시하며 저평가 주장. 장기(20~30년) 보유 권고. ARM 인수, 자율주행 수혜 등을 근거로 제시. 주가 수익률 PER 93배 등 고평가 지표도 인정함. 스톡카드 유료 툴 홍보 포함.
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nvidia earnings came out q2 2020 i got so excited that i dropped 22 000 on nvidia stocks last week and i must say that i can see a potential 6 or 700 evaluation of the company with their future potential expansion and semi conductor domination stick me on this video i'm going to tell you why nvidia is by now welcome back to family investment and yes today i'm gonna be speaking about and video nvidia's q2 2020 earnings is spectacular and i'm just going to speak why i've bought this share but before i go i would like to share that i used to be an nvidia shareholder i had about 75 nvidia stocks averaging 165 dollars i started buying them in september 2018.
yes and guess what during the pandemic i sold all of them because i was scared i was shocked that i might lose my job i was scared about remortgaging i need to keep cash it was fear it was fear they made me sell my nvidia around about under 300 bucks when i was at all-time high and then drop back in february i regret it yes i regret it it's one of the biggest regret i have in my investing career my last eight to nine years something i've learned i still believe in a stock took me a while to get in and until the q2 2020 earnings came out i could see why nvidia is not stopping the momentum is strong yes we speak about tesla and apple stock split but people are forgetting the nvidia has got a long road ahead a long beautiful road ahead so in this video i'm going to show you the breakdown here at the site so you can click on the timeline in the description if you want to skip but i highly recommend you to stick throughout this video on why you should buy nvidia now so yes i've spent twenty two thousand dollars nearly with fees plus minus on uh on 42 nvidia stocks averaging around about 495 i managed to get it before the jump on the friday i could have got it before but it kept going up so i've got to have locked in so my strategy my plan is to hold long term obviously i'm not going to trade them anymore i've written in my book alex do not be an idiot do not sell nvidia buy nvidia for its future i wrote that i'm going to tattoo in my hand to remind myself think about it there's still overvalue here the future value of nvidia it will and yet will be realized among different factors which i've discussed but if they do drop i'm prepared to buy more i'm prepared to make nvidia my biggest holding yet again because it was in february 2020 i will make and video my previous vegas holdings up with the likes of apple amazon tesla unilever so let's kick off with their ex spectacular earnings even before the earnings nvidia was already up 106 percent since the start of the year with snp were only at four percent 106 percent that's staggering for such a semiconductor company and when the earnings came they blew the expectation out of the water remember the expectation was high and it bit even higher that is amazing and the share price never really went up after the earnings so because everybody's been focusing on tesla and apple so let's just drill in so the earnings was 2.8 per share but expectation the streets were saying 1.97 eps which is really really good revenue 3.65 billion expected and they beat it by 3.87 billion so it's a 50 percent rise in the whole annual compared to last year it's 50 growth guys 50 percent so the gaming this is what nvidia's core business started off as 1.65 billion rose 26 not surprised with with all the gaming market going a potential next playstation and microsoft um xbox is coming out not yet but this in in the works and what's really capturing is it's 1.75 billion from the data center from the cloud data center which is actually for the first time that another business has surpassed its gaming business it's got data center that's boosting behind it there's up 167 percent they've got clients like google cloud amazon data center and there was another 14 percent that came in because of the mellanox acquisition for the um their switch and then the fact that you know that's not all they were saying they're producing the new generation data center card which is the a100 which is still not accounted yet like spending money on it but the sales will be coming rolling in soon and then also the the new next generation console so look at here they have big earnings and there's more room for growth you know the next expectation is way even higher still looking for broker don't wait join hagrid langsdon i use it for my family my pension the kids investment all in one basket it's a really really good company great security amazing products you're not regretted so join hargreave langston today so now let's get to the valuation of nvidia and how i see it so i use graham's intrinsic calculator i always use it during the time of the earnings because they put their earnings that beaten and their future next quarters earnings so if you use graham's intrinsic calculator i've added the future eps 2.53 plus 2.18 plus 1.8 plus 1.89 so it's basically the next three months is towards the end of the year and then looking back what day should they be worth and this will blow you away the pe ratio for nvidia is about 90 and the p ratio for tesla is about a thousand so you can see why my focus went to nvidia rather than tesla 8.4 value of 500 expected growth of 30 and trying to be conservative the intrinsic value was 843 dollars that's growth about 40 percent which that's why they should be worth and then if you put a growth at 40 which is i think most probabilistically realistic is that what could probabilistically really stick anyway there should be about a thousand ninety that's crazy and then if you look if you say that's forty five percent growth rate it's about one thousand two hundred and thirteen is this graham's calculator real is this real are people not saying this what am i missing here seriously what am i missing here it's actually showing that it's it's nvidia with the future take what they expect they are severely undervalued just now for the future value not not validity but for the future value feel like future expectation but it's it's it's bright it's the future is bright that's where and why second reason why i've plowed it and will be plowing more on nvidia all right now i am going to do the technical fundamental analysis and so i'm going to be using my tool called stockcard.io and yes i do have a partnership with stockcard.io and also promoting it and also i'm using it i do use it on a regular basis and i you know i was looking closely on it using stock card.o on my mobile phone because it's easy to use and i'm gonna run through with you what i see what i found as well is me using on my premium account actually you know premium account that you pay for an annual basis so let me just walk through with you on on how to use it as well and what i see just to share my views the third reason on the technical analysis how i find nvidia it's really really good value so as you can see here research specific so nvidia is nvda uh on on the ticker search nvidia and when you search it you will come up with a dashboard as you can see here you can see the dashboard here nvidia corps and what i really like about it is they give regular updates and through my mobile phones as well so as you can see updates this week because i'm following them and it comes from my email he says next x dividend date and yes nvidia pays dividends very low but they do pay dividends i think it's better than uh disney pay but under one percent so they said announce the dividend on the 1st of september 2020 and it was a useful yes i find it useful and then the relative strength index the rsi uh if you if you train your your data is they have a stable relative strength index bullish so it's bullish trend people buying can see a high influx of money is going up so it tells you on your phone without looking so that is it's came in this week obviously the reason we have all the if all the people start buying so if you go to the dashboard you can see really really quickly it's fair growth potential because it sees it as it it's what it is just now uh from the earnings you know you know this is an ai it doesn't see the forecast for the future sales or the future uh equity value this is what they see just now so it's fair growth potential strong operation is a huge tech outperformed the market it shows that it's a market a leader and over value stock yeah it's an overvalued stock okay so that's about the cash availability if you scroll down outperform the market pass investment return you know we're not really caring about dividends or share buyback because you know it's a growth company still and you can see past investment return year to date 115 so it just compares how much it's grown by total three years 122 so this is basically the down breakdown figure what you can plot in the chart and then on the overvalued stock multiples evaluation so this one is key to understand why it's over value so the last 12 months p ratio is 93 times so p ratio of 93 indicates that it's a growth company if you go to the likes of apple or you go to likes of microsoft they're way lower about the 20 to 30s 35 40s but this one is still growth people are paying for their future value so it says at 93 and then 12 month stock price is two into four times its sales per share so whatever it's sold the share value is 24 times more and then cash free cash flow price book value so it's all multiples of 20 multiple 60s so in this day and age we always pay for the future values in multiples of 24 because it's a gross stock and people see uh this is how people you know evaluate you paying for the future value of the company here so you have to realize how much future value of the company you are paying for and this one uh this data helps you and this is one of my last favorite ones over excited investor the sentiment value you know you watch cnbc and all and you're thinking you know is it a good or bad you know you can't but let's break it down to data form no emotion breakdown data phone so the first one that i like is shocking money inflow so shocking money inflow is basically you can see the volumes of money going in and out as it shows in green that means in the last 20 days the more money coming in than going out okay so it shows that you know people excited people excited about it over excitement and money is coming in more in the last 20 days the short interest is also key because you want to buy you want to buy on the dip so the short interest just now it's on the orange and i did check a few weeks ago it was on the green and because when the earnings came up you know the movement started slowing down people started taking profit before the earnings came out and it went to the orange and that you know i couldn't wait for it to go to the red you go to the red if they had the bad earnings but they didn't it's on the orange so i took this one the key reason why i took it people are selling and lets me go in and then the next one simple moving average it's 50 days moving average and it compares the 50 to the 200 there's this golden crossing if you all check on google the golden crossing 50 and 20 day moving average so the moments in green and 1.38 uh this is known as the golden er meaning that investors are bullish pushing the stock market price higher so don't get too excited today because it's going to go high and finally the relatively strength index at 76 it means the investors are excited they're buying people are buying this company this is the momentum rsi is basically the momentum the rsi people are buying the moment is driving being driven by momentum okay and then you know if you scroll down you get you know you get other analysis i believe the last analysis was up to 2019 2020 there was one in um in general by the analysis by a human analysis in it so you can see there are four four folks out there even the ceo holder mayhem has got it on her portfolio i think she's invested in nvidia and that's what you see on here and so areas of strength so if you want to tell yourself what's a strength so it's a founder led company so jensen huang is the founder and his leading company it's like jeff bezos running amazon it's like uh it's like uh tim not tim cook like steve jobs running apple so no leadership changes so it's one man who owns it that's his full passion doing it high rated ceo it's it's written here diverse and independent board a good bot multiple revenue segments things to watch is employee satisfaction dependency on few customers because they have all their customers are huge amazon google apple business small stream and reasons to worry is that geographical expansion is unlikely so this is what is done by the ai but then again uh nvidia produces a chip with taiwan semiconductors so taiwan semiconductor be fighting for the new a100 chip so you know they oh they can send it supplies so it's not like intel where they do it all in-house and now they're trying to ship it outside for cheaper supply which is taiwan semiconductor so reasons to worry maybe they're just in the u.s but their products are all over the world so when cloud computing comes up it doesn't matter what company you are cloud computing will be at a data center place so something that i'm not going to be really worried about and maybe the thing that i would add myself in this book here is it's basically the overvaluation of how they can achieve to expect to hit the next quarter earnings and the one after that to meet expectation because expectation is very high one of my other two key final two reason that i'm forecasting about nvidia again is the buyer of arm i know i'm very very well because i went to the same university as the founder of arm so he's my professor robin saxby and i've seen you talk about arm back 20 years ago when i was in university and um in the future for arm is finally they have beaten intel finally they are in every console nintendo switch apple iphone i am future imax so arm chips will be almost everywhere overtaking intel so if nvidia buys armor they're buying a huge chunk with 50 billion expected to buy i think it's cheap i think arm should be worth 80 billion dollars more than what they were bought previously and they're all great british cambridge company and the second reason for my liking on nvidia it's again for the you know there's so much more not just arm but damn expanding in next generation and now future cars ai cars kicking off tesla will be kicking off future self-driving vehicles with nvidia powered gpu in those systems research is still ongoing you know the likes of uber dominoes tesla bmw audi everybody is racing for self-driving vehicles and nvidia will play a part apart nvidia is like the shovel to the gold mine race back 100 years ago so that is my second key reason and should you buy like i said it's high you're buying for the future values don't trade it when it dips you have to buy you have to persevere it's long term you have to hold it 20 25 hold it 20 30.
it'd be great i think it's great for pensions it's great for cats investments you work out great if you know your young fella in your 30s in your early 40s buy it and by the time when you had sex the nvidia will be somewhere it was somewhere up there and also uh rumors which i'm saying rumors we shouldn't use this as evaluation but big rumors but nvidia stock splitting as well and we could potentially see a five to one or seven to one maybe not soon but maybe when they hit the 700 valuation they might go to a stock split eventually but this are the rumors which is biggs out there and this is my reason i hope you enjoy it and please leave a comment below on what you think as well and if you've got any questions please ask away i'm here to help you all all right before i go before i say goodbye please do like and subscribe on my youtube channel follow me on facebook and if you want support me on patreon as well so i can produce content like this every single day for you guys to give you guys value so please do share be sure to share this video to help us grow our youtube channel yeah all right guys three two one bye bye
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