저자: Schwab Network · 외국인
요약 보기
Schwab Network에 출연한 Meridian Equity Partners의 조너선 카르피나는 최근 월가의 대규모 매도세를 과잉 반응으로 보는 견해를 밝혔다. 그는 올해 S&P 500이 5%, 나스닥이 15%, 러셀 지수가 10% 올랐다는 점을 들어 장기적 관점을 유지할 것을 강조했다. 다만 선거 이후의 워싱턴 충돌, 연준 관련 불확실성, 지정학적 리스크 등 앞으로의 도전 과제는 여전하다고 지적했다. 기술주와 반도체의 매도에 대해서는 포트폴리오 매니저들이 올해 수익을 실현하고 균형을 맞추려는 움직임으로 해석했다. 그는 패닉성 매도 주문이 나온 상황에서 감정을 배제하고 인내심 있는 접근이 필요하다고 말했다. VIX 지수가 18~19에서 28까지 올랐다가 22로 내려온 점을 언급하며, 변동성 급등 시 잠시 멈추고 상황이 안정되기를 기다리는 것이 중요하다고 조언했다.
다듬은 글
Continuing our coverage of the massive sell-off on Wall Street and what to expect next, we welcome Jonathan Karpina, Senior Managing Partner at Meridian Equity Partners. He joins us at the table. Nice to see you. Good morning. How are you? Good morning. Today is better. Was it similar to what happened yesterday?
We are recovering this morning, and that is a good sign. I think that was a bit of an overreaction, don't you? Let's take a broader look at the situation, okay? We had so many obstacles and negative headlines in the market, but it continued to grow. And I think everyone was waiting for what would be the catalyst that would move the market.
I'm not saying the midterm elections are that catalyst, but it was news that people could react to. Personally, I think the market reacted too sharply on Wednesday. He overreacted on Thursday . And now we have to see how this will develop further. Let's maintain objectivity. The S&P rose 5% for the year.
Nasdaq grew by 15%, Russell by 10% for the year . So let's stay calm and see the future. We've come off the peaks, double digits in some indexes, but if you go back to January and if I told you in mid-November that you would have a 7% return on your investment if you put it in an index fund. So I try to keep the right perspective.
This does not mean that there is no turbulence ahead. We have the election results, which have already been announced . Obviously, there will be more confrontations in the District of Columbia . Who can do anything, if at all ? We will continue to talk about the Fed. We haven't talked about our geopolitical risks yet.
A lot, yes, indeed. they are still there. They still haven't disappeared. We face three fairly serious geopolitical risks. So, we have challenges ahead of us. We just need to get through this trading session. So, you're saying that the setback should be taken calmly. I hear it, and some people hear it.
But yesterday I heard this thought here: is this the first day or a one-day phenomenon? What do you think about this? Well, I think this morning shows us that we need to hold on to what we have today. And I'm not saying we need growth today. We don't need a big sale today, do we ? Usually in a week like this , given the events, risks may persist into the weekend.
But if we can hold at a certain level this morning and close the trading session, I think investors will feel more at ease. However, if the market drops sharply at the end of the day under heavy pressure, then I will start to worry before the weekend. How important is this? Normally on a day like this we would only discuss the employment report, right?
Um, how important is that? It seems like it's taken a bit of a backseat now. So, since we've been talking about all these different things, right? There seem to be two categories. What headlines are influencing the markets? And then let's go back to the basics of our economy and let's go back to the basics of our market.
These numbers are really important. This is certainly the data we use. As our Fed continues to claim , they will remain data dependent. These are important metrics they will use. I just think right now we're all looking at what's directly in front of us, and that's the events of this week. This is the impact on the technology sector.
And again, today's trading session is going to be very, very important and very interesting, because if we get through today's calm rainy Friday here in New York, I think it will be very good for sentiment. By the way, rain isn't that bad. But let's talk about where the biggest losses were, and in particular, you mentioned the technology sector, chips.
You get great information through your order book, right? Um, does it look like investors are just cutting back...you know, yeah, we finished every sector of the S&P 500 in the red. But does it look like investors are cutting back on AI, or are they just generally adjusting portfolios? I think they are recording the profits for the year at this point.
If you invested in technology and AI, your profits increased. I think portfolio managers are starting to hold back their profits. They are trying to balance their portfolio a little more because it has become too skewed. But what's happening now, as we see it, is that the momentum in this sector is changing so quickly that you don't want to be on the wrong side of it.
And , starting today, you don't know which side is right, because again, we have to see how this all plays out. There was a headline this morning where the president said he 100% supports this and is going to work with the states to ensure further movement in this direction. I don't know how this will all end.
We still have a lot of controversy ahead of us because we have a president who wants to push hard and there are some states that really want to slow it down a little bit. So it will be interesting to see how this all develops . But I think that overall, as we approach the end of the year, and going back to the numbers I mentioned earlier, we have the S&P up 7% year over year, the Nasdaq up 5%, the Russell up 10%.
Portfolio managers will want to start holding these gains simply for their benchmark base. So I think we'll start to see a little more conservative trading towards the end of the year . Especially because they want to show at least some profits for the year. Um, so there's some incentive here. You mentioned the speed of how things happen, whether we're talking about yesterday or the day before yesterday.
And I don't know if it was that fast , you know, everything starts to blend into one whole. But yesterday, when the stock was moving so fast, what adjustments do you have to make when processing large orders? Yes. So you need to put aside the emotional component. We need to go back to the basics of trading.
When we have these orders, whether it's a buy or sell order, we have to find the right liquidity and the right prices in the market. You can't get too emotional about this. We certainly had some sell orders, which I think was panic selling yesterday from some of our customers. You have to hold them back a little bit and play the long, patient game when trading in these situations, because again, any headline or tweet that comes out is going to move this market , right?
So we're constantly monitoring all the sources that are out there, but you don't want to be on the wrong side of this. These markets that we see Yes. We see it throughout the day, and we see it day after day. The fluctuations we saw yesterday and Wednesday are huge. I think they are exaggerated. The VIX index started the day yesterday at some point , you know, around 18 or 19, went up , went up, went up to 28, went down to 22.
These are huge spikes in volatility. When you start seeing this, it's best to just press pause. Just take a moment, let the dust settle, let everything find its place and move on . I hope and expect that today will be one where we have, you know , a little bit of instability, but we won't have certainty in any direction; and this, hopefully, ahead of the weekend, will not lead to an exit from risky assets, and we will start to form a base as we approach the end of the year.
Okay, thanks, John, for the conversation. I appreciate it. This is Jonathan Corpina. He is a managing partner at Meridian Equity Partners.
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