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하워드 막스의 최신 메모를 해설하며 이번 팬데믹 위기는 통상적 경기순환과 다르다는 결론을 제시. 경기침체 원인이 바이러스라는 비경제적 요인이어서 재정·통화 정책으로 근본 해결이 어렵고, 백신 등 해법이 나와야 한다고 봄. 금리 영향 측면에서는 제로금리가 자산가격을 밀어올리고 투자자들이 낮아진 기대수익을 메우려 위험자산으로 몰리는 FOMO가 누적된다고 설명. 채권 대비 주식의 상대 매력이 떨어지는 구조를 자본시장선 도식으로 설명. 3월 패닉으로 시장이 약 40% 급락했으나 신속한 연준 금리인하·양적완화와 정부 부양책으로 패닉이 길게 가지 않았다는 점을 짚음. 다만 바이러스 종식 시점이 불확실하고 추가 부양책 전망도 불투명해 향후 패닉 재발 가능성을 경고. 결론적으로 즉각적 전량 매도를 권하는 것이 아니라 현 상황의 성격과 과거와의 차이를 이해해 포트폴리오를 점검하라는 취지. 영상 자체는 개별 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측을 명시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone and welcome back so legendary long-term investor howard marks has just released this week a brand new memo where he shares his thoughts on the economy and the state of the stock market and what we should expect as this pandemic is rolling on so in today's video i'm going to give a quick brief about who howard marx is for those who don't know and then we will jump into the memo and i'm going to talk about some of the key sections that i think are most important to understand as a retail investor understanding what is happening with the pandemic at the moment and how you should be approaching the markets approaching your stock portfolio so with that said if you do enjoy today's video i would very much appreciate it if you could leave a like on the video and then let me know your thoughts down in the comment section below and uh one other thing to mention my little puppy my dog has been barking all day and very anxious or something so she's in here at the moment so if you hear any snuffling or barking or anything like that then that's the the source of that sound so um with that said let's jump into a quick brief about who howard marx is for those who don't know who he is howard marks is a long-term investor he has a net worth of 2.1 billion dollars and he's most well known for co-founding the oak tree capital management fund which manages at the moment about 125 billion dollars and in terms of his investment philosophy that he uses in the funds in the products available through oaktree capital management uh the the philosophy that he uses it does differ in a substantial way in a number of substantial ways from the methods that we teach on the channel here uh here we are looking for unique opportunities in the stock market and we're happy to sit on substantial amounts of cash while we patiently wait for those opportunities to appear whereas howard marks more has the approach of staying fully invested most of the time but will move towards more defensive asset classes such as bonds if the stock market and other higher risk assets are expensive so he's more about being fully invested and just kind of changing the composition of his portfolio but regardless of all of that his memos that he releases quite regularly now are very very valuable in understanding how financial markets and the broader economy function as a retail investor so that's what we're going to get into in today's video now the first important point that i took out of this memo was that he thinks that the pandemic the the crisis we're going through right now is not a typical cycle so for those who know howard marx uh he is very big into identifying patents in the markets he has a book called mastering the market cycles that i'm actually reading at the moment it's a fantastic book i'd encourage anyone to read it but he is very much into looking at patterns in the market and how things happen repeatedly and in that way or not in that way in fact he believes that the current pandemic is not a typical cycle so what is a typical cycle right well a typical cycle is that the stock market will go up due to businesses performing well so when economic conditions are going well as they were for the most part over the past 10 years uh businesses are spending lots of money they're innovating individuals are spending money they're reducing their savings because they feel comfortable in their jobs and they're making more money in their jobs as well and then eventually that leads to over optimism about the future businesses expect perfect conditions to last forever and they start making riskier and riskier investments they start to make less effective innovations over time and on an individual basis consumers take on more debt and their lifestyle expands beyond what they can afford and then eventually that all catches up to businesses and individuals and there is a correction the cycle restarts uh as businesses fail as individuals need to pay down their debts and start to save money once again and the thing about normal cycles a typical cycle is that the downturn the recession that comes at the end of that cycle is typically caused by some kind of economic problem and as a result the government and the federal reserve are able to use economic tools in order to fix that problem but what we're facing right now is a pandemic where the problem the downturn the recession all of that has been caused by something that is a non-economic factor in this case it's a virus so you have this other factor in which economic tools can't fix right so they can use economic tools such as providing stimulus lowering interest rates printing money and buying financial assets they can do those things to prop up the economy to improve it but at the end of the day the what is sort of the root cause and and uh yeah what is the root cause of this recession won't be fixed until there is a solution to the virus right they can keep spending money but if they just stop spending money if they stop providing stimulus the virus will still exist businesses will still be operating at a limited capacity and there will still be problems in the underlying economy so in the meantime while we're waiting for a vaccine or some other kind of solution for this virus businesses are going to be suffering a lot of businesses in a lot of places around the world are operating as i said at sort of limited capacity whether that's a restaurant that can no longer sit as many people as they previously could and then there's some industries where they're just completely shut down right you have areas like well not completely shut down but you know for most for the most part um areas like travel for example a big part of a lot of different travel businesses are at limited capacity or completely shut down altogether and that's going to be the case until the problem with the virus is fixed and as i mentioned stimulus and other economic tools can be used and are being used in order to sort of stem some of the bleeding in the economy to kind of prop up the economy while we're trying to find a solution but in terms of what's happening around that there has never been more uncertainty around that economic stimulus that economic um relief so earlier in the year the us passed a significant stimulus bill that provided a lot of relief to businesses and individuals but there hasn't been a significant stimulus bill passed for a very long time now and a lot of businesses and individuals are feeling that and uh there's just a lot of uncertainty around whether and when that stimulus package will come the u.s are very very close to an election and uh it looks like there's not going to be a stimulus bill passed until after the election which means that depending on whether a democrat or a republican becomes the president that could have a significant impact on what that stimulus looks like for individuals and businesses and then probably more importantly than that whoever wins the house of representatives and the senate the two houses in congress uh if they're both won by one party then it might be very easy for them to pass a stimulus right after the election if one party has each then it might be very challenging for stimulus to get through so all of those things create a ton of uncertainty around the repair tools that are necessary right now to maintain the economy while we're waiting for a solution to the core problem which is that virus after that section howard marks has a section that he calls the power of interest rates and in this section he is talking about the impacts that having zero percent interest rates or near zero percent interest rates in the us and around the world in many places the impact that that has on financial markets and to the economy and some of the things that he lists here are things that we've spoken about before on this channel if you've seen my ray dalia videos then uh he is big on talking about how interest rates and the other economic levers function and howard marx goes into talking about some of those factors and he ends up listing a total of seven different impacts that low interest rates have on the financial markets and the economy and we're not going to discuss all of them because this video would go on forever but i've hand-picked a few that i think are really really important and can teach a lot to the average investor so the first impact that low interest rates have is that it has a stimulative impact on the real economy and that makes perfect sense right anything that any purchase whether it's personal or business that requires a loan lowering of the official fund rate at the federal reserve will across the board lower the rate to borrow money whether that's you're borrowing money for a house or you're borrowing money to buy a boat or an rv or whether you're a business borrowing money to invest in innovation to invest in the growth of that business when interest rates come down the interest expense on those loans goes down and therefore the cost in order to get that money and make those investments or make those purchases goes down the second impact is that it impacts asset valuation so the price people are willing to pay for assets and we've spoken about this a number of times on the channel but investors look at investments in terms of opportunity cost so they're looking at all of the potential investment opportunities the risk and reward and they're making a decision relative to other investment opportunities and when the near risk-free rate offered by the us government is below one percent i think at the moment it's about point seven percent to lock your money away with the us government in bonds uh if you're earning point 0.7 percent and that's far below what you could have earned you know a few years ago then you are going to be willing to pay more for assets in other classes so um i guess another way to explain this is as the risk-free alternative goes down the return that investors are willing to accept in stocks for example or in property also goes down and another way of saying that uh the return that you're willing to accept goes down is saying that you're willing to pay more for that asset right a stock is just a business that produces cash flow okay if you pay more for that asset if you pay more for that stock then the relationship between how much you pay for that stock and the cash flows it delivers to you is worse the return you're getting is worse but you're willing to pay more for those assets and accept a lower return in stocks because your alternatives are also offering you very very low returns and a lot of people will argue that all assets are connected almost in kind of a line in terms of how safe those assets are so of course as you invest in higher risk assets you would be demanding a higher return it's why you demand a higher return on a stock than on a us government bond because if you put your money in the u.s government bond you'll make point seven percent which is terrible but you will make point seven percent they will not default on that whereas if you buy a stock the business may or may not produce the profit that you're expecting out of it and in this memo howard marks uses a diagram of the capital market line as an example to show how this can change over time so as the official fund rate the rate that the federal reserve is charging two banks to borrow money as that comes down the returns of all other asset classes even if they are riskier comes down and that means that asset prices are going up and the kicker to all of this is that investors have this habit for the most part on average of getting used to the returns that they were getting previously and kind of clinging on to those returns and when interest rate or when the returns on stocks for example on average is going down instead of investors just accepting that lower long-term return because of the environment that we're in investors have the habit of seeking out riskier investments in order to achieve the same returns that they were getting previously with those safer investments and obviously in terms of reducing the risk in your portfolio it makes a lot more sense just to accept the lower returns that we have in the environment that we have but a lot of people give in to fomo they give in to the fear of missing out and they move money into riskier and riskier asset classes and that has a build-up effect over time and that will slowly have an impact and build up and eventually there will be a significant drawdown on those riskier assets as uh even though the you know the expected return for those riskier assets is higher uh they're riskier in nature and a lot of them will not pay on the interest that investors are expecting towards the end of the memo he points out something that i think is really really important to understand as an average investor and it's another way in which the crisis we're facing now is very very different to the typical typical crisis that we see in a broad economy in almost every past crisis the crisis has been exacerbated made worse by panic of investors and individuals right you have investors who panic and they sell their stocks which causes a significant sell down in the stock market and in other financial markets and then you have individuals who panic and they cut their excess spending they start to look at their savings account and start to protect their wealth a little bit more and that has a flow-on effect to businesses that therefore generate less revenue and then can no longer have all of the employees they have and those employees then are even more conservative on how much they're spending so usually a crisis is made worse by a significant amount of panic by individuals but in the current pandemic in the current crisis we're seeing right now the panic only lasted for a couple of weeks right back in march when everything was really unknown about this virus the markets at least in the stock markets they fell almost 40 percent in just a few weeks so just a few weeks of panic caused the market to almost lose half of its current value but the different thing that happened in this crisis was that the stimulus came very very quickly right you had the federal reserve which quickly lowered interest rates to zero they quickly started doing quantitative easing so printing money and buying financial assets and then you had the government the us government and many other governments around the world that provided significant stimulus to individuals and businesses so the panic really didn't last for a significant length of time you had individuals who felt a little bit better about their situation because the government was bailing them out a little bit you had investors who were sitting there and looking and thinking well every other investment opportunity that's safer than stocks is offering me a basically zero percent return so they just all flooded back into the stock market because they don't want to miss out on the gains in the stock market and obviously people not panicking is not a bad thing at all but something that you should be aware about is this virus is not gone we don't have a vaccine for it many experts suggest that we might not even find a vaccine at all for it so we have no horizon around when this pandemic is going to be over and on top of that in the u.s particularly you have no idea when the next stimulus package is going to come what it's going to look like and all of those things added together mean that if there is no additional stimulus then more businesses as time goes on will struggle and that will cause more individuals to struggle as they lose their jobs and if enough of these things build up again we could see the panic that usually lasts a significant length of time 12 18 months in most crises we could see that level of panic occur in this pandemic now of course it's entirely possible that we have a vaccine that passes stage 3 trials over the next couple of months and then can be manufactured and mass distributed across the world you know within the next 12 months and it's very possible that the us and other countries will pass more stimulus and provide more relief to individuals and businesses and if that happens we might not see the panic that we typically see for a long period of time in most crises but a lot of things have to go right in order for there to be no panic over the next 12 months and certainly if there's a number of vaccines that failed their stage 3 trials uh and uh you know it looks like we don't have a vaccine for now 18 months or for two years down the road and stimulus is not getting passed in the government then there could be some panic that starts to build among individuals and businesses and a lot of that could flow into the financial markets he then goes on in the memo to talk about a number of other things such as the implications of zero interest rates on wealth inequality and how that impacts the society and the financial markets and he also goes on to talk about a couple of other topics that we will have to save for another day or else this video will go on forever but just like ray dalio's memos that he posts on linkedin i highly recommend that you go check out all of howard mark's memos and read through them and just you don't have to take any action specifically in the market it's not as if i'm saying look there's all this panic coming it's time to sell all of your stocks and get on the sideline it's more just about understanding what is happening now how what is happening now is similar to times in the past and how it is different and just kind of becoming more aware of what is going on financially and then from there you can make better decisions in your portfolio over time oh and speaking of ray dalio's linkedin i'm also on linkedin so i will leave a link in the description to my linkedin down there so go check that out if you're interested i've been posting some videos on there so uh if you want another way to access some of my content and i guess be notified as well when i'm posting on youtube sometimes youtube doesn't let you know so if you want to have another place that you can access me then feel free to use that link to check out that profile over there also check out my instagram if you haven't already a ton of you have been following my instagram recently so go check that out but other than that i hope you guys enjoyed today's video i'd love to hear your thoughts on this memo and some of the things that we discussed today down in the comment section below as always i'll be down there answering questions and replying to comments as this video goes live so if you race down there uh you can have a discussion with me but other than that hope you guys have a great day and i'll see you in the next video
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