저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 베리는 공급 과잉과 불황형 디플레이션으로 곧 큰 폭락이 올 것이라고 본다. 핵심 주장: 연준의 대규모 유동성 공급이 인플레이션을 키웠으나, 공급망이 정상화되며 물가가 둔화될 것이라는 전망이다. 근거 수치: 소비자심리지수는 15년 이래 최저 수준, 소매 재고는 전년 대비 24% 증가, 컨테이너선 발주는 올해 239척으로 역대 다섯 번째로 높은 수준이라고 언급했다. 채권 관련: 모기지담보증권(MBS)에 매수 호가가 없을 정도로 시장이 얼어붙었다는 점을 인플레이션 지속의 위험 신호로 제시했다. 경기 사이클: 채찍효과(bullwhip effect)로 과잉 공급이 생기고, 이후 연준의 양적완화와 긴축이 반복되면서 경기가 주기적으로 충격을 받는다고 설명했다. 시장 전망: 현재 시장이 극심한 공포 단계에 도달하지 않았으며, 단기 반등은 장기 회복 신호가 아니라 약세장 속 일시적 랠리로 보아야 한다고 주장했다. 언급 종목·자산: 개별 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없고, 소매업체(월마트·타겟) 등 유통 섹터 재고 과잉과 주식시장 전반의 약세 가능성만 언급됐다. 리스크: 정책 대응 실패나 임금·고용 악화가 연쇄 충격으로 이어질 수 있다는 점을 경고했다. 출연자 전망: 영상의 주인공 마이클 베리는 시장 폭락을 예상하며 현금 등 방어적 준비를 강조했다. 진행자는 특정 투자 권유 없이 준비의 중요성만 언급했다. 주의: 본 영상은 2022년 11월 발언을 기반으로 하며, 이후 시장 상황과 다를 수 있다.
다듬은 글
one of history's most shocking catastrophes is about to happen soon this was the Revelation made by an American investor and hedge fund manager Michael Berry nobody knows what berry sees just as in 1999 and 2008 but the world is due to awaken shortly in a tweet he said well it took years for the theater to become overcrowded with millions of people the collapse will be Swift and unpleasant unavoidably some people will fall behind and it will be their fault for not catching on investors throughout the world will still be in for an unpleasant Awakening even if the warnings have been present for years foreign is aware that the government made mistakes unsurprisingly the 5 million dollar in money that the Federal Reserve produced caused prices to surge as a result the inflation rate is currently 8.6 percent Barry disagrees with the mainstream media and he believed short-term inflation will decline although the FED did not print at a rate of 1.5 trillion dollars per year during the pandemic the opposite is currently happening the Federal Reserve intends to reduce the money supply by 1.1 trillion dollars annually prices should fall If the Fed stops printing trillions of dollars since they did so after prices increased this is taking place when Supply chains begin to catch up to demand over the past few years Supply chains have been under pressure but this is beginning to change the world hasn't been passively waiting for the pandemic to end we are wired to adjust to a changing environment there are now new Supply chains in place businesses are becoming more productive the building of container ships is increasing the worry over the availability of goods is in full swing according to One Maritime researcher 13 more container ships were ordered last week bringing the total for the year to 239 ships even though the year is just halfway through orders for container ships are already at their fifth highest level ever clearly such a rapid increase is unsustainable another analysts emphasize how there is valid costs for concern given the enormity of the prediction the rise in inventory indicates that the race to produce supplies is beginning retail inventory has increased by 24 percent since last year the issue with this newly discovered Supply is that consumer spending has decreased the new Michigan consumer sentiment index reveals that consumer sentiment is at its lowest point in 1.5 decades prices will inevitably fall quickly when there is an excess of goods and little consumer demand Berry is alluding to an impending surplus of Supply when there is an excessive amount of supply and Retail establishments and not enough demand this is known as a supply glove retail stores will have to start lowering prices by implementing Mass sales as a result of an exact Supply too many products on the market will significantly reduce business revenues which will eventually result in job losses or salary reductions for workers very further on this idea by stating the bullwhip effect is what this Supply exists at retail represents this bullwhip effect occurs when a surge in demand and prompt suppliers to place excessive Supply orders this is due to the fact that companies frequently order a little extra inventory as a backup the issue with this is that the supply can be inflated to unsafe levels when a network of businesses all Place extra orders typically retailers wholesalers and manufacturers make up the supply chain this demonstration shows how placing too many orders at each stage of the supply chain ultimately results in Surplus orders the bullwhip effect got its name because of how this is comparable to a bull whip the bullwhip effect is happening right now but on extremes because of the severe Supply shortage retailers have ordered loads of stock one of the largest bullwhips in history resulted from this additionally a supply glot is unavailable when there is a bull whip Barry is aware that the impending Supply exists will result in deflationary forces and disinflation when the pace of inflation sharply declines there is disinflation inflation will therefore soon begin to slow down rather than continue to increase as many predict the bullwhip affects impending this inflation may prompt the FED to resume creating money otherwise known as quantitative easing the increase in consumer demand from quantitative easing will then lead to a further deficit in Supply the FED will next begin quantitative tightening often known as pulling money out of the economy to stop inflation as a result of the supply shortage the only issue is that shops will order additional stock once more which will bring about the bullwhip effect once more prices will fall if there is an excess Supply which will prompt the FED to resume quantitative easing this would falsely raise consumer demand and cause a lack of Supply which simply prepares the ground for another bull whip such a cycle is worrisome since it keeps the economy stock in recurring bullwhips as a result of the fact that we are currently in the bullwhip phase of this cycle we will soon witness one of the worst crashes in recorded history the bullwhip effect extends Beyond traditional retail chains like Walmart and Target according to bury who explained it this way across the economy different verticals are in different phases at the same time but fundamental Equity investors are rarely looking at more than one vertical at a time other industries from the production of planes to cell phones may also be included the bullwhip effect as was previously established does not only occur once every 10 years it's a vicious cycle that only gets worse with time with prices largely rising in the long run in the financial markets bids and ass are usual the price that buyers are willing to pay is the bid and the amount that sellers are willing to sell something for is the ask as a result a spread develops between the two prices the asset will then be bought by a market maker such as Citadel who will then sell it for the asking price thereby profiting from the spread inflation was so high in June that there were no bids for mortgage-backed Securities this means that there was literally no price that buyers were willing to pay for on mortgage-backed Securities which are bonds that are secured by Home Loans this is a terrifying signal showing that inflation is likely here to stay this is because even though the FED is trying to stop inflation not everyone is on the same page Brewery tweeted an article announcing the inflation relief payments that Californians will receive this is ridiculous because giving free money is only going to make inflation worse he ridiculed California's Behavior by saying that is not how any of this works we're clearly in a frightening economic environment but there must be lie at the end of the tunnel in 2021 speculation reached its speed as finally speculation usually results in widespread fear of speculative assets as of right now we have not arrived there yet a brief rally may be seen by some like Jim Cramer as a sign of recovery bury is aware that market crashes are when short-term rallies occur most frequently having the biggest rallies during Market breakdowns may seem counter-intuitive but history has proven it to be the case every year we have a massive multi-year crash there are plenty of 10 to 25 percent rallies but you shouldn't make mistake those rallies as a sign of long-term Market recovery short-term rallies mean nothing during bear Market Barry tweeted who knew this year was so much fun because all the doomed rallies so given that how is Barry getting ready for the impending crisis contrary to other market crash forecasters Curry's money is most definitely where his mouth is people may say whatever they want but if their money isn't where their mouth is then they're just lying for attention whether this happens or not we should be prepared all the time now what's your backup plan let us know what you think in the comments section below thanks for watching this video till the end I hope you leave us a like and click that subscribe button this is your three towers investing Channel giving you the latest in finance investment and Innovation see you soon
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