Howard Marks: 75 Years of Investing Wisdom in 7 minutes

요약 보기

S&P500 장기 수익률(연 10%) 대비 사모신용·바이아웃 대출 등 신용자산의 수익률 매력과 안전성을 강조. 국채(약 5%)는 연기금·기금 요구수익률(약 7%)에 못 미치고 금리 재투자 리스크가 있다고 설명. 금리 상승기에 부실채권(디스트레스트 디뷰) 증가 가능성을 언급하나 구체적 시점 예측은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. You know, the S&P 500 stock index returned 10% per year plus a little over 10 for 100 years. This was enough to turn a dollar in 1920 into $15,000. This is a good rate of return. Today you can get equity returns from what we call credit instruments, loans, corporate loans, buyout loans. You can get high single digits on high-yield bonds and leveraged loans, public instruments that are tradable and liquid, or low double digits on private buyout loans.

02. Best buyouts, biggest buyouts, uh, double-digit returns. Isn't that enough? And loans on credit instruments, I mean, the yield on credit is much safer than stocks . The shares only receive the balance. After everyone gets their money, they get what's left. The loan is paid out at the beginning of the process, and if people don't pay you, you get the company because it goes bankrupt.

03. So it's pretty safe. and, uh, and, uh, a yield that is fully competitive with stocks with a good level of safety. Some might say: why not just buy Treasury bonds and go to the beach? You can get about 5% on Treasury bonds. Isn't that enough? Not for my clients. A typical pension fund or endowment needs about seven.

04. Uh, and, uh, they can't put a lot of money into five. The other thing about Treasury bonds is that this is the yield you'll get over the next 30 days, but 30 days later, when you get your money back and start reinvesting, it could be three or four. So, you haven't locked in a return for a certain period of time , which is what we want to achieve.

05. So you predict that a significant portion of the money that was invested in private equity, venture capital or other yield-generating instruments will not be as popular with pension funds and endowments because they may move into fixed-income instruments, which you believe are safer, and given high interest rates, they are likely to do just that?

06. Well, that's what people should do. I don't know what they're going to do. When you were growing up, did you ever expect to become an investor? Was this your interest? No. I...I was uneducated until I left the University of Chicago. Uh, University of Chicago. So where did you grow up? In New York. In Queens, New York.

07. Yes. Good. What about your parents in the world of investments? No. So you said I want to go to Wharton for an undergraduate degree. What did your parents say? Ironically, I attended New York City public schools. And my high school, which was extremely overcrowded, offered a wide variety of courses, one of which was advanced accounting .

08. And I passed it, and I really liked it. And my dad was an accountant. He was quite happy that I got into Wharton . Good. So, you went to Wharton . Then you went to the University of Chicago business school . Yes. So, both places are quite intellectual and very numbers-oriented. And after you graduated from the University of Chicago Business School, did you say you wanted to become an accountant or an investor?

09. I applied for six different positions in six industries. Hmm, and then I went to City Bank, where I had a great summer in the investment research department. You worked at City for several years. I was there from '69 to '85. You went to TCW 85th, which used to be called Trust Company of the West. Yes.

10. And, uh, TCW, you've become an expert in debt financing or, uh, debt investments, I would say. Yes. City actually asked me to start trading convertibles and high-yield bonds in '78. Then I went to TCW in '85 and of course, as you know, uh, I teamed up with Bruce H. , and, uh, he had this radical idea of ​​creating a bond fund, and at that time, bond wasn't seen as an asset class that you could build a fund around.

11. Is this true? Right. Absolutely. So you created the firm that you founded in 1995, and how many employees do you have today ? Uh, 1100, and a few years ago you sold a controlling stake to the Canadian firm Brookfield. Why did you do that? Well, we actually, uh, you could say, sold a controlling stake, but not control.

12. Uh, we're in control. You still run the company. They have 600 percent. Yes. Good. So, everything is fine. Everything works great. Uh , Brookfield is a great partner, and uh, and we're still, uh, managing the process. Let's talk a little about problem debt. Uh, you managed the distressed debt portfolio at TCW with Bruce H.

13. You created the distressed debt fund. You do a lot of other things in this area now, but distressed debt is where you first made your name. Uh, we've been predicting an increase in distressed debt for some time now as interest rates rise, but there has n't been a giant bull market in distressed debt yet .

14. Why do you think that is ? Uh, first of all, I want to clarify that it was Bruce who did most of the investing . Good. And it's his recording, not mine. Uh, I just helped him raise funds and sometimes set the tone. This period from 09 to 21 was an easy period where it is easy to get money. So most bankruptcies don't happen because you have a business, but it loses money, loses money, loses money, disappears .

15. This happens because businesses borrow money, times get tough, and when it comes to refinancing that loan, no one ever pays back their debts. They're just refinancing it. And when they go to the bank to refinance it, the bank says, " You don't have as good a credit history as you used to, or we don't have as much money to lend as we used to, or our standards are higher." So this actually comes from the fact that most bankruptcies or defaults are related to non-fulfillment of the maturity date.

16. And I think when we go through a period where it's very easy to raise money for any cause or no cause, and you enter a period where it's hard to raise money even for a good cause, it's obvious that a lot more companies will start one. So, do you expect to see more foreclosure or real estate defaults over the next two to three years?

17. It is often assumed that commercial real estate in large cities will have many debt defaults. Yes. Well, I think we ...I think it's been a long-term average default rate on high-yield bonds, for example, close to 4% over the last...well, I think I've been in them for 45 years...uh, we haven't had a single year in the last 15 years under 4%.

18. Uh, it was a very low period. In the coming years, there will be... uh, how do I sum this up... uh, further thoughts... I said you found a company to buy. You went to the bank, they said we would lend you 800 million at 5%. The loan is now subject to renewal.