저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아는 AI 칩 수요가 공급을 크게 초과하며 'AI 혁명은 엔비디아의 세계'라는 입장. 구글 TPU·AMD 등이 일부 혜택을 보더라도 주도권은 엔비디아에 있음. 연준 금리인하 가능성이 매우 높고 2026년까지 위험선호(risk-on) 장세 지속, S&P500 7000 목표를 제시. 테슬라는 자율주행·로보택시 성장으로 2026년 최고의 AI 종목이며 목표가 600(기본)/800(강세)달러. 구글은 Gemini 3 성과로 AI 부문이 주당 최대 100달러 추가 가치를 더할 수 있다고 봄. 2026년을 AI 수익화 원년으로 보며 MS·메타·오라클 조정은 매수 기회로 제시.
다듬은 글
This is time to talk to the guy who tells us like it is and that is Dan Ives, global head of tech research managing director, senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities. You never hold back. You tell us what you think always and right now you are saying it's Nvidia everybody. Don't get fooled thinking Google's the AI leader.
Why not? Look, I mean look Google's [clears throat] obviously, you know, one of our favorite names as well but my whole point is demand and supply is 12 to 1 for Nvidia chips. Meta can't get enough of these Nvidia chips. There's 30 40% they can maybe get. Where's the rest coming from? You look at what Google's doing on TPU.
You look at what ultimately AMD is doing. There's others that are going to benefit but at the end of the day it's Nvidia's world. Everyone else is paying rent when it comes to the AI revolution. So at this point now when we hear that Google's making deal possibly with Meta and NATO and all these other things, you don't think that it needs to be Google that will be the leader.
I mean there's a lot of things that are going on. Yeah, I mean cuz look they've come back from Asia. Been there 3 weeks. I mean Nvidia most of these are basically sold out through 26 when it comes to chips. So when you look at you know, for small capacity areas, training and and some of the other sort of use cases, you could use Google chips.
But just like you're going to be able to use you could big tech companies. They're going to ultimately build their own chips over the coming years but the reality is is that this AI revolution it's being built on one chip and that's Nvidia. And and I think doubting that I think it's just the wrong move.
It's continue to be the one Godfather of AI. That's Jensen. All right. You also, you know, when you talked about him being the Rocky Balboa of the AI revolution, I also heard that you saw you said the likelihood of no cut was the same from the Fed was the same as you being the center for the next next year.
You even when we had the unlikely situation where maybe we wouldn't get the cut, you thought the cut was coming. Why is the cut coming and are there more cuts coming? Yeah, I mean me and you know, me and Tuckman have talked about this a lot, right? The reality is is that like I said like there's a better chance to me playing in the NFL this weekend or the NBA than ultimately a cut not happening.
But but I think it just shows look the reality is you're going into a dovish cycle, you know, in terms of asset ultimately that's going to be Fed next Fed chair. That is bullish and I think just going through the sort of knee-jerk and doubting you know, I think the the narrative that we're in, I think that's how you lose money.
I mean the 10 years telling you something and I think it just speaks to what I view is going to be a risk-on not just into year-end but as we go into 2026. That's why I told I told I told Einstein get the S&P 7000 hats ready for the coming week. them. He has them. So think about the names. When we think about the names that have the potential for AI, the name the biggest name is Well, the biggest name is obviously Nvidia but I think when you look at Microsoft that continues to be the table pounder relative to a top round enterprise.
I mean I think Microsoft, Meta and Oracle, those sell-offs make those all table pounder names to own. Right cuz I was going to ask you about cloud services, you know, and then cybersecurity. So your winners in each one are? Yeah. So I think if you look on the software side the massive AI pound tier and that's a trillion dollar market cap next two to three years.
That continues to be one of our core winners along with Snowflake, MongoDB. I think on the infrastructure side Nebius. I think that continues to be very, you know, I think under appreciated in terms of everything they're doing. You know, and then I look on cybersecurity. Everything George is doing at CrowdStrike and what Nikesh is doing at Palo Alto.
Those two names stick out front and center. And then of course it's the hyperscalers that we continue to own. And look it speaks of the Ives AI 30. Who are the winners? Who are the second, third derivatives? The bears will come out of hibernation mode. They'll scare. I get it. It's just part of this market.
The reality is this tech bull market has another two years and that continues to be our view in this AI revolution. Are you still a Tesla fan? I don't think there's a better AI name to own in 2026 than Tesla. Because it's my view autonomous and robotics will define the future of Tesla and I think it's going to be the big biggest chapter of growth ever.
I think autonomous alone is worth a trillion dollars. Look now you're starting to see it. Robo taxis. They're going to be 30 35 cities. The regulatory framework's going to be accelerated. Musk wartime CEO has the pay package. That's not a concern anymore. 600 base case, 800 bull case for Tesla. Why do you think Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff was saying so many great things about Gemini 3 versus ChatGPT?
He said he used ChatGPT for 3 years. Now he tried Gemini. It was you know, a life-changing moment. He's never going back. What's so great about Gemini 3 and is it going to be the leader at least in that part of it? Look Gemini it's a special in terms of what they've what they've produced there. Look it goes back to New York City cab driver was bearish on Google to start the year, right?
The breakup AI is going to you know, ruin their business model and now look and they've had their own Rocky Balboa moment. Maybe Rocky 2, right? In terms of what we see playing out. Look this is not a zero-sum game. I mean what OpenAI is doing ChatGPT, they're going to continue to be the core leaders but I believe the AI component for Google that could add potential $100 per share to the name.
That's why that's the name you continue to own core going into 26. How do you view Tim Cook and sales you know, as the leader as the visionary, how 17 is doing? I mean look that's why he's a Hall of Fame CEO, right? They continue to count him out and then ultimately look look where Apple is. And and this is even before they've gone down, you know, I think with this candlelit dinner with Google and Gemini that's going to be their AI partner.
iPhone 17 we've seen in Asia. That continues to be a surprise upgrade cycle. Streets continue to have to come up in terms of numbers. And the consumer AI revolution is going to go through Cupertino and Cook. And it also goes back to I believe he will be CEO for at least next two to three years. I do not see him leaving early given where we see on you know, this important path on AI.
And look Apple you know, I think investors have counted them out way way too many times. Everybody wants to see the revenue generated. They're getting tired of all the spend spend and they while many say look I don't think we're in an AI bubble, we want to know when we're going to start to see some revenue generated from all the spending that's happening.
And by the way, that's what's driving the economy and it's not slowing down cuz if it slows down then we lose, right? So they have to keep spending these hyperscalers and a lot of circular spending. But when do we start to see some revenue generated? Is that soon? Well, I think I think 26 is going to be the year monetization.
But also look at Palantir. You've seen it. You've seen it in Snowflake, MongoDB. I I mean the point is like but 26 is where you're really going to start to see it on the enterprise side. Consumer hasn't even started. That's way 26 27. But Nicole it's my view like this is building Vegas with no from the desert 1950s.
It's building Dubai first shovels down 25 years ago. I mean that's how you have to think about this build out of a fourth industrial revolution and I think it's short-sighted when investors like well, you know, I'd rather them just you know, increase revenues, increase EPS, increase free cash flow maybe like a Meta into next year.
No, you want to see Zuckerberg being wartime CEO spending in the AI arms race monetizing the future of Meta. So I know that you talked about for Meta the consumer monetization and you actually think it's way oversold right now, right? Look, I just think it comes down to like Meta is not going to second, third, fourth choices when it comes to chips if they didn't think the opportunity was there.
That's why Zuckerberg's doing this and also you have 3 billion users you're now going to monetize in the consumer side. And I think look it goes back to like this is an arms race. These are real use cases. This is not a bubble. This is the beginning of a fourth industrial revolution. We've said the part the AI party started 9:00 p.m.
It's now 10:30 p.m. Party goes to 4:00 a.m. I'm not saying I'm part parts of the party. DJ doesn't stop playing music. Glasses on the dance floor. Maybe cops come to the party cuz of loud music. Party goes on till 4:00 a.m. The bears will watch that party from the outside through the windows. All right.
Well, I like this getup too with your Soho surf and you're looking like a little F1 racer a bit. I'm trying to keep up with you. I'm trying to keep up with you. right. This is boring Armani. I like what you have way better. Okay, Dan Ives. Happy Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your loved ones, global head of tech research managing director senior equity analyst Wedbush Securities Dan Ives.
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