저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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짐 크레이머는 제이미 다이먼의 경제 전망에 동의하지 않으며, 시장 비관론이 기회를 가리고 있다고 주장한다. 다이먼의 발언 평가: 소비자와 은행 시스템의 강점을 언급하고 암호화폐를 일시적 현상으로 본 점에는 동의하지만, 전반적으로 '불황 또는 인플레이션' 식의 모호한 경고가 시장을 부정적으로 몰아가고 있다고 비판한다. 시장 비관론 근거: 전략가들의 시장 회의론, 개별 종목 하향 조정, 모건스탠리의 대형 은행주 비중 축소(JP모건 포함) 등을 예로 든다. 크레이머의 반론: 연준이 긴축을 멈추면 대규모 감원이 올 수 있고, 그 과정에서 승자와 패자가 갈리며 기회가 생긴다고 본다. 다만 현재 실적 추정치가 충분히 낮아지지 않아 시장이 매력적이지 않다는 견해도 인정한다. 거시 지표: 인플레이션이 약 4%에서 5% 방향으로 소비 여력을 잠식하고 있으며, 약 1.5조 달러 규모의 초과저축이 내년 중반쯤 소진될 수 있다고 본다. 이것이 경기침체를 촉발할 수 있다는 우려를 제시한다. 고용: 연준이 금리를 빠르게 올린 것이 인플레이션을 잡으려는 목적이며, 최근 4주 사이 인력 확보가 쉬워졌다는 기업 반응을 전한다. 아마존 감원이 경제에 영향을 줄 것이라는 시각도 언급된다. 기업 사례: 폭스바겐은 숙련 인력 확보가 어렵다고 말했고, 데이비드 솔로몬(골드만삭스)은 인재 유지 노력을 강조하면서도 보상 조정으로 수익이 기대보다 낮아질 수 있다고 언급한다. 출연자 전망: 크레이머 본인은 개별 종목 기회를 강조하며 시장 전반의 공포를 과도하다고 본다.
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uh Jamie dimon on squawk this morning Jim talking about the consumer the strength of the banking system calling crypto a sideshow and uh Pet Rocks the equivalent yeah I thought that was right about about crypto I I think Jamie has a laundry list of things that that he could easily Trot out to be alarmed by and against that he says that our military is good I think we all agree with that uh I was uh put off by it because what it said was I'm basically like everybody else I just don't think we can really get out of the situation uh the Situation's bad it's going to be inflation or it's going to be recession and when I listen to that it says to me okay uh we've got the big strategist saying we don't like the market we have individual stocks being downgraded we have uh Jamie Diamond is a very smart guy saying listen there's nothing here uh you know David I'm not hearing anyone saying the following which is you know what the market has been there's been really some very big values being created there's some winners there's some losers that are going away when the FED stops which eventually will because there's going to be big layoffs those can be great opportunity I do not ever hear the word opportunity it's almost as if we've banned the word opportunity for me maybe because there are a lot of people who continue to believe Jim that there's demand destruction yet to come and that earnings have not come down in terms of the estimates or what will be the reality next year um to a level that is makes the market not attractive right now I mean it's that simple you know it well and there are plenty who still believe that yes and that was in Action a bit yesterday now you have I mean but here's an example of what is just driving me crazy here's a piece Morgan Stanley Jack be nimble not time to be long large cap Bank double double upgrade JP Morgan see this is the kind of thing I'm like I hey you know what the uh the Giants they're doing quite quite poorly I'm picking them for the Super Bowl I mean you know I need to hear something that indicates you can't have everything you can't have listen it looks really good it's going to be really bad and it is a shift in coverage though isn't it yeah but at the same time it's like you know Jack be nimble I mean what is You Know Jack be quick sell JP Morgan with a Candlestick I mean what is this audition that these are going down Jamie Diamond you do some more work don't say a hurricane you should have said listen you know what I was missed I I misspoke what I meant to say was it could be a challenging time I mean who are these people they're paid a fortune to try to find ways to be able to help people make money and they come on and what do they have to say it's like Hey listen I'm sorry it's so bad what are we like well yeah at least your friend uh Jamie didn't say hurricane he he refrained from doing so I think nobody's my friend that's terrific maybe we're doing something this weekend maybe we're going to play the national I know I use the friend term liberally because he uses I know you guys are really not friends but um that's better uh but he didn't he you know I think he's been encouraged don't say hurricane please Jamie but he did at the same time have some things to say you have a positive clip no it's not positive in terms of the risks and his concerns now you know four percent on the way to five uh inflation is eroding everything I just said and that a trillion and a half dollars will run out sometime mid-year next year and so when you're looking out forward those things may very well derail the economy and cause this mild or hard recession that people worried about Jay Pals raised rates at a furious Pace to try to stop inflation uh I think and I think Jamie would do this too I now ask CEOs uh some of them behind the scenes because they don't really want to talk about it uh how hard is it to get people something changed in the last four weeks it's suddenly not hard the companies I talked to oh not hard we get resumes we got people want to come back to work that's why I think that you got to be very careful I mean to me none of these guys were saying the following uh which is you know the FED will keep doing this and then one day we're going to wake up and see a lot of layoffs and the FED is you're going to see the table employment you can come down for a lot of places and the people I mean I I was talking to someone from a major construction company yesterday who just said I don't know what's happened but in the last three weeks we can fill any job and then some and it's just it's just happening right now and alluded to the fact that Amazon layoffs are going to impact the economy it's interesting it's like a it's like a fire it's working through but it's not everywhere Volkswagen this morning difficulty finding qualified workers David Solomon this morning talking about how impressed he's been in his peers being tenacious in retaining Talent while he is actually I think compensation-wise going to come out in a way that people are going to have to read rethink how well they're doing you mean compensation foreign there you make more money at some of these other firms I think Goldman you're not going to make as much money as you thought you were going
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