원문 보기
right great to have you thank you so much for joining us so we are now in eighth year of a bull market how much more do we have to go oh I think we're right in the middle of the cycle I think that markets right now are priced generally speaking about right so if the economy continues to stay in that spot great economy never does we've accumulated quite a lot of debts in the economy but we also have other io u--'s promised in other words everything from healthcare and pension reform and so on that are not counted as debts we are in a nice temporary equilibrium within this longer-term debt cycle you so what you're saying is that the political upheaval and seeming risk not just in the United States but everywhere in the world is not something that investors should pay attention to or be concerned about I threw my whole all my years there's always been that there's been the Iraq war there's been the this and that and the other thing there's always that kind of nervousness there was in North Korea there is a this and that there's always been those types of things I think what is most important perhaps is the development of populism and its influences but I'm not saying that there can't be an event I would never know whether there's event and and created an exogenous influence so usually what when you have those events though you know you have the World Trade Center going down and you have all of those things at the moment the Kennedy assassination there are so many different things that have happened along those lines those are normally very sharp quick events that the markets and circumstances adapt to so most likely it won't come the market turmoil or you know big things won't primarily come from there and talk about populism you called it one of the greatest threats to not just the United States but the world right now in history it's been one of those situations that sometimes has led to democracies choosing to give up democracy in favor of dictatorships I'm not saying by the way I'm not saying a lightweight period I'm not saying that about here I just want to be clear I'm not saying it about anywhere else I'm not making any forecasts of where it's going or any sort of parallels I would say Donald Trump by and large has been populist but the only reason I'm looking at it is to see how he evolves or how in Europe lepen or the five-star party in Italy or other places how they evolve because in the 1930s which is quite similar to a lot of the period that we've been through economically we had the wealth gap we had large debts we had zero interest rates some things that are very economic during those same types of period we experience more populism most countries became populist and so it's very important to understand that if you were to see that happen in the United States Europe and other things you would have something that would be of concern because that would alter how the economic conditions work so let me ask you to make a forecast because you've studied history now I know how carefully you study history in the markets and and understanding the future are you worried about the situation that we're in now globally and where we could go I'm worried not over the next year or two I'm worried about what the next downturn might look like the effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating an economy is less than it used to be because we are closer to zero so think zero as an interest rate you're closer to the floor that's why Fed policy or central bank policies have to give a little bit more airing on the side of allowing stimulus stimulation to occur allowing the economy to pick up more and do you feel that the Fed is being too aggressive no I think the Fed understand the circumstances and is being appropriately tightening happily since President Trump was elected there's been a big surge in confidence small business big business does that matter will that translate to the economy and ultimately the stock right well I think it I think there are some things we know and some things we don't know we're now in a time where we actually have to see what other kind of policy changes take place in the form of let's say fiscal policy I don't think we're going to have a radical change in the economy in terms of policies Wall Street seems particularly focused on taxes no much tax reform well text taxes and tax reform we don't know of course exactly what's going to be passed there's a lot of things that we there's a lot of conjecture certain amount of speculation that I don't expect is going to be the big driver of the markets per se it'll be bigger drivers of segments what is Mexico okay what does that mean for the dollar those types of things you've had an amazing success story with bridgewater you started the company in your kitchen I believe 40 years ago you built it into the most successful hedge fund in the world when you started how did you learn to invest and how did your investment strategy change over time yeah well I learned I learned I learned from my mistakes in other words my instinct is you know you go there and you place a bet I'm who had winners and I've had losers and what I did well every time I made a mistake they became painful mistakes but with time I realized that reflecting on those mistakes would give me gems what I would do is I'd say why did I make that mistake and I would learn from that mistake and I'd write down a rule so what was helpful for me is I put that rule principles these principles I wrote these principles now those principles that I wrote down I then put into algorithms in other words equations and what I learned by being able to do that is mine if I took my decision criteria those principles and then I tested them back through time I gained a perspective that was fantastic I could test them in the back a hundred years I could test them in different countries and I would learn how those rules worked and I put by putting all those rules together and then how having these algorithms the computer can replicate my thinking but it could actually think better than I could because it what it would do is it would take it could process more information it can process it faster and it could process it less emotionally so it was like having a pS that was next to me while I was also making my decisions like you're driving in a car and you have both operating and to have that next to me was you know invaluable it would learn I would learn and together we built that you made all these mistakes and learn from them without going bankrupt which is what happens to a lot of investors or did you go bankrupt a few times in that period and then come back no I know but I had one I had one crash 1982 I did calculations that American banks had went much more money to emerging countries than those countries a little bit pay back and and I those calculations very controversial those country Congress calculations were right the countries Mexico in August of 1982 defaulted a number of countries happened we had this big debt crisis I thought the economy was going and the stock market would go down a lot the startup economy in stock market went up a lot I I was so I lost money for me I lost money for my clients I was so broke that I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad this was very very painful but it turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to me because it gave me it gave me a change in mindset it gave me a realization essentially I went from a state of mind thinking I know to a state of mind of thinking how do I know and and then trying to and give me an open mindedness it gave me a fear that balance with my human with my aggressiveness the most important thing that I learned is that kind of that fear and the humility in order to balance those bets so you have just a remarkably inspiring American story and from nothing to just unimaginable success Jamie Dimon earlier this week said look there's a problem in this country it's a great country but there's a problem he's right you agree with that Oh totally in many parts of this country we don't create a bottom there's no bottom in other words there's no minimum level of acceptable education there's no minimum level of acceptable circumstances in some days there's a tragedy that we're losing in many way our human infrastructure in lots of those places if you look at my wife is very much involved in education in the worst parts of Connecticut this is a something that's particularly important to her 22 percent of the students in Connecticut are either disengaged or disconnected now you think not only is that a human tragedy in terms of those kids but that's also going to be a terrible social tragedy what will they end up doing how will it be and do you think that's different than the infrastructure that allowed or helped you to do what you do or others yes I was lucky in the senses I had parents who cared about me I went to school I was able to have that kind of infrastructures and I'm in this wonderful country that allowed me to have those kinds of opportunities and and and and inspirations you know when you look at people and that they could do those great things so there was a dream that can happen okay so yeah you need hope you need family you need infrastructure you need certain basic things that I had the benefit of having and that a lot of the population doesn't have the benefit of having great wonderful to have you thank you so much for talking to us thank you
Comments 0