저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상은 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측보다는 공매도의 역할, 시가평가(mark-to-market)의 중요성, 2008년 금융위기 회고가 중심이며 대상 자산에 대한 단기 가격 예측은 거의 없다. 공매도 전략: 애크먼은 자신의 펀드가 초기에는 공매도로 수익을 내지 못했고, 2019년에는 수익의 대부분 또는 전부가 공매도에서 나왔다고 설명했다. 매수(롱) 대 매도(숏) 비중은 롱 2~3달러 대 숏 1달러 수준이라고 언급했다. 시가평가(Mark-to-market): 애크먼은 장기 보유 자산이라도 시가평가가 중요하다고 주장하며, 골드만삭스가 유동성이 낮은 자산도 일부 매각을 통해 평가가격을 정하는 규율을 예로 들었다. 파생상품도 복잡할수록 평가 방법 정보를 확보해야 한다고 했다. 2008년 금융위기 회고: 금융권 정리는 대략 75~85%가량 진행됐다는 제이미 다이먼 발언을 인용했고, AIG 정리는 거의 끝났다고 언급했다. CDO 구조의 복잡성과 모델 의존 위험을 지적했다. Bear Stearns: 주당 2달러 매각은 유동성 위기에서 비롯된 측면이 크며 지급능력(solvency) 문제에 가깝다고 평가했다. 자산 대비 자본 비율이 낮아 작은 가치 변동에도 파산 위험이 있다고 설명했다. 개별 종목: MBIA에 대해 숏 포지션을 유지한다고 밝혔으며 월요일 실적발표 콜을 주목하라고 언급했다. 타깃(Target)은 경기 침체 시 약세가 우려되지만 장기 가치 대비 할인 시 매수 가능하다는 입장이고 지분(약 10%)을 보유 중이라고 했다. 투자 철학: 하향식(top-down) 거시 예측보다 금리·유가 변화에 덜 민감한 견고한 기업을 할인가에 매수하는 방식을 강조했다. 소매주는 경기 침체 때 기피되지만 장기 현금흐름 기준으로는 분기 실적보다 가격 대비 가치가 중요하다고 했다. 리스크/조건: 2008년 당시 CDS 보험 매수는 하방 손실이 제한적이고 상방이 크다는 구조를 언급했으나, 기회가 줄어들 수 있다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
activist investors facing perpetual challenges convincing regulators and shareholders to face a facts we've got an expert on that subject with us an exclusive with hedge fund manager William acnes managing partner Pershing Square Capital Management he joins us with guest host a David Einhorn and if you ever wondered what the business show of record is it's bringing guys like Ackman on here that did say it just about every day they think you come here on squawk box thank you for coming on thank you having me we've been talking about marking to market in the bigger sense and and we should point out you're not you make a lot of money on the long side when do you he said he it was kind of cute cuz he said I just want to first just let everyone know it's at least two or three dollars long versus $1.00 short you're you don't want to be labeled a short seller and would you say two or three dollars long for each one shorter even more long first few years of our existence we made no money in the short side last year was a majority or 100 percent of our profits came from shorts on so it wasn't Wendy's or stirring up things and on the long side of things that we took a break from that last year my question now is and I thought of something else there but we we were wondering whether there's some smart people that say you don't need to mark the market if you're gonna hold these things to maturity there's no reason to go through all this pain and all these distress sales with some of these companies if you just let things let things go and I came up with a 30-year bond because I have to think slowly I was a stockbroker I remember when rates went up that bond was worth half as much but that's not coming to do for 30 years what if it's a five-year piece of paper you really need to mark that to market to be fair for a company sure I think like goldman sachs is probably the best example of this but goldman sachs is risk management as far as I understand it comes from the fact that they very in a very disciplined way mark-to-market honor that if something's coming to in a year they'll mark it I mean it's a minute the trader says I can't get a mark for this Lloyd Blankfein says okay fine sell 10% of it that's your mark I think that kind of discipline has helped Goldman Sachs avoid very significant loss no matter how illiquid something is I mean you can't mark limited partnerships mark the market can you can you try to sell some try and sell 10% so any the most esoteric derivative can be marked a market on it I think the more esoteric it is you have to get some information on how you're calculating that mark-to-market and I think you might want to give a range but that Dad then that's a problem then do we still have a lot of work to do with financials at this point probably how far Jake Jamie Dimon says we're 75 80 85 percent done cleaning up this mess I mean maybe JPMorgan is I don't know about I mean AIG you know not what that lungo said pretty close to being done the problem is that when you've got a structure like a CDO where the underlying assets in some cases are CDOs and then underlying them or asset-backed securities ations and then underlying them or mortgages I think Buffett's you know made the comment that to understand a CDO you got to read seven and fifty thousand pages of prospectus is that's one CDO well difficult to figure out things just on models that may or may not be accurate I think so let me go back to and I don't know if you saw our segment where we were talking about whether short sellers are scum or whether they're just investors and we decided that they were just investors on the long side okay and if you come in hype a stock you come and say wow what you know you remember some of these great story stocks of the past they've got technology alchemists whatever the the cold fusion however you want look at if you've doubt it long is it any different than trashing it short I think you know it's actually before I came on the show is thinking about short selling generally you know may be good advice to give a investor when should you listen to a short seller versus versus otherwise and I think you know if you want a message board and there's some anonymous guys saying this companies of garbage that's not good enough information but if someone gets up in front of this one gets up in front of a thousand people makes a 20-minute presentation you should pay at a case so we understand it works with Enron I gotta keep going though then if someone gets up in front of an audience and then after doing so gets investigated for doing so yeah still stay short you should pay attention listen and then if that person writes a book and commits to give away 100 cent of the profits we really should pay attention and we're gonna I'm gonna be watching Ald today then cuz then it's gonna be because we've got we're certainly highlighting that this morning the other point I was getting food what about like a Bear Stearns or a Lehman where I mean was did Bear Stearns need to to be sold at $2 a share or was that and did Lehman need to come close or some of those scurrilous and untrue rumors that had been circulated by shorts on I don't know what rumors were circulated by short sellers but I think bear stearns came quite close to going out and I think had it not been rescued by JP Morgan unfortunately the expensive of shareholder teaming you know one of the issues bear stearns impress Bear Stearns could have been a little more disciplined about marking to market thinking about what we heard as it wasn't a it was a liquidity problem not a solvency problem right $2.00 is pretty close to to insolvency and when you got a 400 billion dollar balance sheet relative equity is 3% of your capital very small changes in the value assets wipeout you know difference between solvency and insolvency well I just want to get from both of you how well do you two know each other how long have you known of each other and how long have you been friends know about twelve twelve years or so long time how did you first get to know each other I think God we met on the subway platform seriously you're joking no it's true I meet the nicest people inside with peplums knowing who each other was or just met blindly actually we were at a lunch and we were both there we left and I happen to be engaged on the subway pub do you two have very similar thoughts about how you go out and and and deal with Wall Street I I don't I think we have look I mean Bill's a phenomenal investor and I think though he has some different philosophies than I do and um he constructs his portfolio very different than Lee than I do and his returns are absolutely extraordinary it shows there's a lot of different ways to go about things but he's that he's a fabulous investment if it's my marketing advisor I'm his book publicist are you gonna make 100 percent your profits this year by going short as well it's possible but I think we'll make more money in the long side this year gilli can you tell me the question can I ask why yeah I think it's more difficult to be short in 2008 than it wasn't two thousand because the markets are going to yeah we were able to the way that we've been short principally has been buying credit default swaps which were these insurance policies and companies of faulting and in 2007 you basically could buy insurance on a company defaulting and pay almost nothing right your downside was very very small and Paulson made a fortune this way basically taking on a bet where the downside was very small he'd lose a couple percent of his portfolio in the upside he'd make ten times well then that's at folio that sounds like it backs up with Jamie Dimon said that maybe were 85% through the credit crunch maybe those opportunities are harder to come by I think those opportunities harder to come by what about the people that would have made money if Bear Stearns defaulted should they be unhappy no no I think they they got they bought they put the the money out for the credit default swap and they never got paid off though I think that's the risk you take that someone's gonna come in and totally change the games and of the absolutely I mean I know the problem with I think if you were a hundred percent short you don't know that but yeah you'd only want the world to come to an end I mean but what's good about being a long short is that you can still be you want good things to happen for America and not not be concerned well in what areas are you long yeah we want to find out things that you're doing before you're gonna do them and things like that we told you that we couldn't talk about we could ask anything that you get to decide what you there's no yeah that's fair you can ask me whatever you want which things you definitely not want us to ask you about the day the things that would really get you to go well I'm not going anywhere near that please try all right how about MBIA we're on that Elida to chat about all right so what's your position now we actually don't comment on precise what when longer what we're short we but we are still short and bi yang and we we still have the same views I mean MBI is announcing earnings on Monday I encourage you to pay attention I think it'll be quite an interesting conference call you know we've historically not been allowed to be on the ndia conference well one of the things I think you should look for is a sign for companies that you don't want to own or when they don't allow when they restrict the people that want that elective was where my last question came from your find out which companies you can't be on the conference call I want to know which questions you definitely won't answer you know I'm going to put out a list of questions publicly and I'll be happy to send it to CNBC questions you would have for MBIA the conference on the conference call and I'd be delighted for you to ask them on there and I think that would be a very good way to do it overall youth you ever think tops down what we do is we look for businesses where we think they're not likely to be materially affected by extrinsic facts you know interest rates go up up or down a couple hundred basis points if oil prices go up 2500 versus barrel we try to find very robust stable businesses generally very modestly levered and as a result we don't need to think particularly top-down we don't need to think about exactly where interest rates are gonna be for us to do well and we look for a big discount we can buy something for 50 cents on the dollar yes target is gonna be weaker and a difficult economic and we're already on target now we're a big believer your latest filing was was where they just filing we owned just under ten percent of the company in terms of beneficial ownership and more than that no economic ownership so we're big believers and we're 13 D file or if that were to change we'd have to find our own yesterday target was was a little disappointing especially when you look at what Walmart did there are a lot of people who think Walmart is getting the upper hand on target after a long time of playing second fiddle I think that we don't think really month-to-month accorded a quarter I mean that the value of a business is the present value of the cash you can take out of it over 50 years you know the next year is worth more in that calculation than a year 50 year out but one of things I find interesting about retail stocks for example is that no one wants to own retail stocks if we're in a recession going into recession but if you if a business is worth the present value the cash you take out over 50 years you're gonna have seven recessions why does it really matter you know you should think more about what you're paying versus what the business is worth as opposed to what you're paying versus what they're gonna earn next quarter those parameters you get is for what what makes an attractive investment are there even though you don't do top down are there sectors that offer that that you don't have to mention names but other sectors that offer that type of criteria we're less of a sector focus we focus on things on individual company things we can understand that's the important
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