저자: TomLee · 외국인
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톰 리는 장기 관점에서 비트코인을 최대 100만 달러까지 전망하며, AI·블록체인이 월가를 변화시킬 것이라 주장한다. 이더리움은 '슈퍼 사이클' 진입으로 향후 5~10년 폭발적 상승이 예상되며, 비트코인 대비 과거 최고 비율 회복 시 5배 초과 성과가 가능하다고 본다. 스테이블코인(USDC·USDT)이 이더리움 수수료와 거래를 크게 떠받친다고 설명. 미국 주식은 2025년 말 연준 금리인하 재개와 ISM 제조업 지수 회복으로 강세가 예상되며, 은행·산업재·소형주로 랠리가 확산될 것으로 봄. 강한 기업(테슬라·엔비디아·팔란티어) 선호를 제시.
다듬은 글
If anyone's buying crypto, they have to use a long-term time horizon. Mhm. So, they shouldn't worry about the price one month from now, but they should think about where it is 5 years from now. And that's how we've always approached it. When we wrote about Bitcoin, we always wrote about prices 5 years from now.
And that's why even today, I think Bitcoin can still get to a million. They have to understand there is a huge transformation taking place on Wall Street because AI and blockchain are really going to disrupt traditional Wall Street and so they should really bet on a future where that innovation is going to take place
and part of it is Bitcoin because that's where you store value but a a bigger change is on smart contract platforms like Ethereum. So to me, I think Ethereum is in a super cycle. Like it's just the start of what I think is going to be a really explosive rise over the next 5 to 10 years. What just happened has sent shock waves across the market.
And Tom Lee believes it's the kind of event that will haunt investors for years to come. Bitcoin is no longer crawling in the shadows of doubt. It's tearing through ceilings at $115,000. But here's the twist. This number isn't the destination. According to Lee, it's just a pit stop, a waypoint on a terrifying yet exhilarating road to something far bigger.
Forget next week, forget next month. This is about the next 5 years, where the line between nightmare and opportunity blurs. Lee warns that most investors are trapped by short-term noise, blind to the seismic shift unfolding beneath Wall Street. AI is rewriting the rules. Blockchain is dismantling the old guard.
And Bitcoin isn't just a store of value anymore. It's the spark that could ignite a financial wildfire. And then there's Ethereum lurking in the background, ready to explode into what he calls a super cycle. Think contracts, assets, entire systems, not in banks, not in governments, but locked on chain forever.
The scary part, once this door is opened, it can't be closed. Lee argues that this moment is the beginning of an irreversible transformation, one that will gut the old financial order and crown blockchain as the new empire. The haunting reality is this. If you're not positioned for it, you won't just miss out.
You'll be swallowed whole by the very market forces now being unleashed. Let's watch clips from Tom Lee's sharp market analysis to gain more insight. Don't forget to like, subscribe, and enable notifications for additional in-depth content. Thanks for joining us again. Enjoy the video. The stable coin industry is the first really widely adopted crypto product.
That's why we called it the chat GBT moment and um stable coins work really well. Merchants love it because um they don't have what they call chargebacks and the exchange fees are much lower. uh you know if a merchant accepts Visa payments for instance that's 2 to 3% of the charge is taken by Visa and if there's a fraudulent charge the merchant is forced to lose money on that transaction.
There's never any fraud on a stable coin because it's a bearer instrument. Consumers like stable coins because um it's less expensive to carry a USDC than to have a bank account. And um and then the stable coin issuer makes money on a stable coin. Stable coins also are big owners of US treasuries. In fact, collectively they're the 12th largest holder of US treasuries.
So it's a very good model for the United States. And I I think banks have looked at stable coins initially as, you know, they didn't really like the product, but now that they've seen the adoption, they've become interested in issuing their own stable coins. Stable coins, I think, have a the primary distinction today is really uh US compliant stable coins like USDC.
Yeah. Yeah. And PayPal versus Tether because Tether is much bigger, but it doesn't operate in a compliant way with US um OFAC uh US regulatory requirements because in the US um in order to have a stable coin um wallet to receive it, you have to have done what they call KYC, know your customer. It's a it's a standard um anti-money laundering
Oh. uh process. So what all bank account anybody who opens a bank account in the US has to do a KYC. Okay? But Tether doesn't require KYC. That's why it operates so widely outside the US. 80% of all stable coin transactions do take place outside the US at the moment. So it's much bigger outside of America.
But uh you know today there's um you know on in crypto you can just use crosschain. you can swap Tether for USDC into a compliant wallet. So, it there's interoperability. Um, so JP Morgan, Goldman, Amazon, Walmart, they'd love to be in the stable coin business because then they can capture the benefits of of issuing a stable coin.
So, like big banks have centuries of trust and millions of customers and the crypto firms have like the technology. Who do you think has the upper hand? Do they have to compete or will they survive like both? I I think both. I think the strongest ones are going to survive. Um JP Morgan and Goldman I think are going to be huge winners um from blockchain because they, as you said, they have um enormous positive reputations with governments, with institutions.
um they have a brand that's recognized and crypto is a way for them to re-engineer their businesses to save a lot of money. So I I think that the biggest US banks are going to become global winners in crypto. You know, the stable coin market's going to get competitive. So Circle is the biggest stable coin after Tether.
I don't I don't really know the financials of Circle that closely. So if someone is interested in owning that stock, I I don't know. But stable coins have to run on a blockchain, right? So Tether, USDT and USDC, they operate on top of an existing blockchain. And the majority of stable coins, over 60%
are operated on Ethereum. Oh, so Ethereum is where most of the stable coins are actually operating and it and 36% of the fees for Ethereum today come from stable coins. Oh, and um there's a stat that was just published over the weekend, but in just the last 7 days, um about 7 billion of stable coins were created on Ethereum.
Wow. which is greater than the amount of stable coins on Salana over the past 5 years. So more stable coins creations are taking place on Ethereum. So I'd say if you're betting on stable coins Yeah. you should bet on Ethereum. Yeah. It's like betting on Ethereum. Okay. Yeah. And that's just tokenizing the dollar.
Mhm. Wall Street wants to tokenize the stock market and they want to tokenize bonds and real estate and even art. Yeah. um that tokenizing mechanism is the same essentially as tokenizing a dollar. So that's where Wall Street is again doing most of that work on Ethereum. So my friends thought Bitcoin was so my friends that are in the financial business.
They are the ones who missed Bitcoin because in 2017 their knowledge of the world is traditional stocks, traditional bonds. They didn't think crypto made any sense at all. So they were very skeptical of Bitcoin and in fact many ridiculed um my views about it. Of course now they acknowledge it was a great idea.
I think they'll regret it. Yeah. But now when I tell my friends about Ethereum Yeah. They my close friends still do the same thing. They're like, "Ethereum, it hasn't done anything for 5 years. Why would I buy Ethereum now?" So most my closest friends are still very skeptical. With a market cap near $2.3 trillion, Bitcoin continues to dominate headlines.
But the real story is happening in its shadow. Stable coins like USDT and USDC are quietly enabling massive Bitcoin flows, acting as the bridge between fiat and crypto speculation. Every $1 billion shifted through stable coins can ripple through Bitcoin's price, intensifying volatility while giving traders near instant liquidity.
Ethereum, the backbone of most stable coins, now handles a significant portion of these transfers. Its network fees alone generate around $1.2 2 billion annually, a signal of just how much economic activity rides on these stable tokens. Without them, Bitcoin would face slower adoption and less efficient trading.
But with them, the market is a pressure cooker, ready to explode with the next major move. The haunting reality is that Bitcoin's dominance and price swings are now inseparable from the rise of stable coins. They are no longer auxiliary tools. They are the ghost in the machine, amplifying Bitcoin's every surge and crash.
Ignoring this interplay is like ignoring a storm while standing in its eye. The danger is already building. Let's watch more clips from Tom Lee. Well, number one, if anyone's buying crypto, they have to use a long-term time horizon. Mhm. So, they shouldn't worry about the price one month from now, but they should think about where it is 5 years from now.
And that's how we've always approached it. When we wrote about Bitcoin, we always wrote about prices 5 years from now. Mhm. And that's why even today, I think Bitcoin can still get to a million. Wow. And it's about 100,000 now. Mhm. Um, so that would be my first advice. The second is that they have to understand there is a huge transformation taking place on Wall Street because AI and blockchain are really going to disrupt traditional Wall Street.
And so they should really bet on a future where that innovation is going to take place. And part of it is Bitcoin cuz that's where you store value. But a bigger change is on smart contract platforms like Ethereum. So to me, I think Ethereum is in a super cycle. Like it's just the start of what I think is going to be a really explosive rise over the next 5 to 10 years.
Well, if someone's buying Micro Strategy, they're buying it for their Bitcoin exposure. Yeah. Um, and let's say that Bitcoin can go from a 100,000 to a million, so 10 times. Micro Strategy will go up more than that because of its Bitcoin strategy. But Ethereum today is 4,000 roughly. We show that if if Ethereum's
Yeah. price ratio recovers to its all-time high against Bitcoin, then Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin by five times. Okay? Meaning if bit if Bitcoin goes to a million Mhm. and that's an 10 times from here, that means Ethereum could go up 50 times. Wow. So now Bit stock should outperform Ethereum's price move.
So if Micro Strategy will outperform a 10 times rise in Bitcoin, Bitine will outperform a 50 times rise in Ethereum. So in a way and these are the two largest crypto treasuries in the world. Yeah, it is the the the choice is really understanding that Ethereum is facing a a positive innovation cycle that that markets haven't yet recognized because it's been for 5 years it's been a chain that's been slowly improving but now it's this is the moment.
So what's your general outlook for other different sectors? Uh well, I'm still bullish on US stocks um in the final few months of 2025 because there's two things that are positive catalysts. The first is that the Fed is going to resume its cutting cycle and um we looked back. So in if you look at the entire history of monetary policy, the Fed has never resumed a cutting cycle in the fall.
this or this it's only happened two other times in history and you're expecting this year as well. Uh yes. Yeah. It's uh the Fed has signaled. So this would be the third time. The first time was 1998. Yeah. The second time was 2024. And this is the third time. In all the two prior cases, the stock market boomed in the fourth quarter because the Fed has been on pause and then they're finally cutting.
Oh. The second um is that the um ma business confidence the ISM manufacturing actually has been below 50 now for 29 months. Yeah. It will probably recover back to 50 once the Fed starts cutting. That's the longest stretch of the ISM below 50 in history. So that's really good for industrials and financials and small caps.
So I think that this fall is a is a really broadening of the stock market rally where the banks and the industrials and the small caps are going to do as well as large cap tech. When the Fed resumes its cutting cycle, they have a lot of room to cut rates further because the Fed's Fed funds is at 4 and a half% right now and inflation is probably closer to two or two and a half%.
So it's the real interest rate is extremely tight. So I think there's a lot of room to cut. That will take a few years. I I think this is really bullish for stocks. I think the most important message I would leave you is that when you think about whether it's stocks or crypto, you should understand that in the stock market, you really want to buy the best companies.
Yeah. That's why Tesla, Nvidia, Palanteer, these are the strongest businesses and they have trends that are not sensitive to the economy. Like if there's a recession, Tesla, Nvidia, Palanteer, they're the strongest businesses. They're not the ones that are going to be hurt. Everything else is going to do worse.
And the same is true in crypto. That in crypto, you really want to buy the strongest chains. and that's Bitcoin and Ethereum, you know, maybe Salana, but these all have really good um I'd say core underlying factors that support them. Tom Lee pointed out that people buying Micro Strategy shares are mainly after exposure to Bitcoin.
He explained that if Bitcoin's price rises from $100,000 to $1 million, which is a 10-fold increase, Micro Strategy stock would likely increase even more because of how much Bitcoin it holds. He also stressed Ethereum's potential, arguing that if its price ratio bounces back to its highest point against Bitcoin, Ethereum could outperform Bitcoin by five times.
So, if Bitcoin grows 10fold, Ethereum might grow 50 times. Based on this, Lee suggested Bitmine, a company with large Ethereum holdings, could see even bigger gains than Micro Strategy. He emphasized that Ethereum is in a positive innovation phase that many investors might not yet fully appreciate, marking this as an important moment for growth.
Regarding the broader market, he is optimistic about US stocks toward the end of 2025. He said the Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting interest rates again, something that has happened only twice before in the fall, both times leading to strong stock rallies. Lee noted that the US manufacturing sector's confidence measured by the ISM index has been below 50 for 29 months, the longest such period ever.
He expects this to improve as rate cuts start, which should support sectors like industrials, financials, and small cap stocks, broadening gains beyond large technology companies. Tom Lee also mentioned there is significant room for the Fed to cut rates because the current Fed funds rate is around 4.5% while inflation hovers near 2 to 2.5% meaning real interest rates are still tight.
This suggests the economy has space for easing which would likely benefit stocks for years. He advised focusing on strong companies regardless of market cycles. For stocks, firms like Tesla, Nvidia, and Palunteer are sturdy because their business trends aren't very sensitive to economic swings. In crypto, he recommended buying the strongest blockchains like Bitcoin and Ethereum and possibly Salana due to their solid fundamentals.
If you had to choose, would you bet more on Bitcoin's steady value or Ethereum's potential explosive growth over the next 5 years? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below. Share this video and hit the like button. Thanks for watching and don't forget to like and subscribe.
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