저자: Daniel—소속미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 현재 랠리는 새로운 강세장의 시작이 아니며, 향후 경기침체 가능성과 높은 금리 환경을 고려해 현금 비중과 선별적 투자 접근이 필요하다는 견해. 시장 상황: 11월 S&P 500이 7% 상승했고 인플레이션 둔화와 국채금리 하락이 확인되지만, 화자는 신고가를 이어갈 근거는 부족하다고 봄. 소비 경기: 월마트 실적발표에서 10월 말부터 소비자 약세와 선택적 지출(트레이드오프) 현상이 나타났다고 언급. 미국 GDP의 약 70%가 소비이므로 경기 둔화 신호로 해석. 재정 문제: 레이 달리오를 인용해 미국 부채가 약 25조 달러에서 45조 달러로 증가할 수 있으며, CBO 전망 평균금리 3%는 현재 실제 조달비용보다 낮아 이자부담이 커질 위험이 있다고 설명. 워런 버핏: 분기 보고서에서 수십억 달러 규모의 순매도 포지션을 보였고, 일본 채권을 팔고 엔화로 저PER(약 10배) 일본 상사 등에 투자하는 전략을 취함. 현금 대비 밸류에이션: 현금 수익률 4~5%가 주식 밸류에이션 상단을 제한하며, S&P 500이 20배 수준인 것은 설득력이 약하다고 주장. 경기침체 전망: 향후 1~2년 내 경기침체 가능성을 상당히 보고 있으며, 침체 시 S&P 500 PER가 15배 이하, 12배 수준까지 내려갈 수 있다고 봄. 금리 인상 효과가 아직 경제 전반에 온전히 반영되지 않았다고 주장. 투자 전략: 경기와 무관하게 반복 수익이 나는 '통행료(톨부스)형' 기업, 창업자 주도, 강한 현금흐름과 재무구조를 가진 기업을 선호. 사례로 Aon(Aion 표기 오류로 추정, 국제 결제 기업)을 최근 50% 이상 급락 후 매수했다고 소개하며 이후 30~40% 상승했다고 언급. 리스크/조건: 침체가 오면 기회로 활용하고, 오지 않더라도 우량 기업을 기회주의적으로 매수하겠다는 중립적 입장. 개별 종목 실적 기반 매수 기준 강조. 출연자 전망: 현재 시장은 험난한 구간(choppy waters)이며, 우량주가 과매도될 때 선별 매수를 권고.
다듬은 글
investors are loving the 7% rally in the S&P 500 so far in November Uncle Sam's also delighted to see inflation cooling off interest rates coming down for treasury bonds for the last you know few weeks you're looking at Kathy Wood back on the Cartoon Network talking about the values of various different crypto assets how she thinks Tesla is the best AI play for her personally I look at this and I'm saying you know we do not have enough key data points to say this should be a new High I don't think this is a new bull market territory despite these data points that we're looking at sure you have seen this nice rally you know over the last few weeks but I don't think this is enough and let me let me share some of the things that I'm looking at right now both from a you know what are the companies saying what are the investors doing perspective also share what I'm personally how I'm personally investing in this environment right now if you enjoy educational investment videos you're watching unrivaled investing so let's Dive Right into you know things to think about you know one of which is Walmart just yes yesterday sounding a note of caution on consumers ahead of the holidays well what exactly did they say you know let's let's dive into this earnings call transcript so I pull up AI ticker chat I go okay let's select the latest earnings call what do management what is what insights does management have about the US consumer because you know the US consumer you're talking about consumption being around 70% of the US economy Walmart's the biggest or one of the biggest retailers so you're going to get some great insights into how the US consumer is doing let's ask you know let's ask AI to read this transcript summarize it first month is free at AI ticker chat and it goes you know it's Management's key calls that consumers are making trade-offs to afford the things they want given the sustained High Cost of things they need and so that the the consumer is feeling the pinch of economic pressure there's still a high degree of variability so sometimes you know some weeks look great but broadly seeing softening in the back half of October so talking about economic weakness starting to emerge merge at the end of October so you know the holiday the Halloween that was still reasonably strong a lot of candy sales but what you're looking at is the consumer broadly started showing some weakness there and I've heard this now from a couple of different data points that the economy could be starting to see signs of rolling over so that that would also help the inflation argument if you have you know the economy cooling off significantly you have Ray doio what's he have to say managing one of the largest hedge funds out there or at least the founder of one of the largest hedge funds out there he's talking about how the US is reaching an inflection point where the debt problem quickly gets even worse well what's he talking about I go to the central uh the the the government uh budget office Central budget office and the Congressional budget office CBO and they're saying this is their figure so this is the rosie scenario where they're saying yeah we're expected to go from around $25 trillion dollar in debt to $45 trillion so this is the US government and they're saying the average interest rate on the debt held is is going to be around 3% now this is a real problem because the actual cost of debt is now more than that and there's a chance it goes even higher if drone pal let's say hikes again and so you might have a period where your interest costs are much higher than what the government's budgeting in which case you're saying well how are we going to afford these interest payments we're going to have to issue even more debt and so then you start creating this spiral effect of who's actually going to buy those bonds that's what r d is concerned about is you know you have1 and half2 trillion dollar annual deficit spending or annual deficits where you're saying who's who's going to keep buying these bonds and that creates a concern especially when you're assuming interest rates are actually going to be lower than they are right now you know cash currently yields between four and 5% so why are they assuming 3% over the long term how is famous investor Warren Buffett positioning himself right now he's a net seller of stock to the tune of several billion dollars when he reported his third quarter Holdings you could see he blew out of several positions more of the cyclical names like General Motors you know you can see he he blew out of now this is I suspect some of his lieutenants as well you know trimming it but broadly cutting it across you know across a portfolio he did find some very clever bets as he's been doing with International so looking at effectively selling Japanese bonds getting the Yen taking that currency and reinvesting it into low priced uh TR trading houses in Japan that trade at low valuation multiples let's say around 10 times you know earnings uh so if you could get a company that trades around 10 times earnings returning most of that to shareholders via BuyBacks or dividends maybe it doesn't grow that much but it's generally tied to the economy and then you're effectively borrowing at 2 three 4% you know long-dated with Japanese Yen you you don't have to worry about the currency risk you have this company that has Global exposure so I just think it's another example of Buffett finding clever International cheap bets for him to make this isn't for everybody cuz he's shorting the currency effectively going along the individual stocks what are my personal thoughts on how to invest right now uh first of all in full disclosure this is not Financial advice also quick plug I do expect a recession could happen in the next one to two years if it does my goal is to help my subscribers find potentially transformative investment opport opportunities that's actually my personal background is during the great financial crisis you know I was working at an investment Bank where there were some really in my opinion not so great people I'll just I'll leave it as that and I was so grateful that you had this crisis where you could invest where you know I I didn't want anything bad to happen to anybody but having an opportunity to plow Capital you know deploy Capital into wonderful Bargains it was a life-changing event for me so my goal is to hope hopefully share some some of the ideas I can find with my subscribers at unrival investing.com it is a weekly letter so if you're not seeing it check your spam box and you know I'm looking for compelling ideas I also share real-time portfolio updates so once again that's unravel investing.com I think in the current investment environment a lot of folks are still waking up to the fact that cash yielding 4.8% at Interactive Broker see the link below this creates a real hurdle for investing because if you have a business that's effectively tied to G GP maybe GDP plus should it really trade at a premium to let's say four or 5% yield so if you have a you know the S&P 500 trading around 20 times does it really make sense when you can be getting a cash yield and keep in mind that 20 times is equivalent to a you know 5% shareholder yield does it really make sense when you can get cash around four to 5% personally I don't think so I think a lot of investors agree that wait a second if this cash yield is going to sick higher for longer then you might have a reset in terms of valuations now I'm you know that gets down to a you get a reset in the stock market maybe you get a recession as well and that's something I do suspect will happen I think all the interest rate hikes of the last few years they have yet to be fully felt by the economy you've seen it in certain spots of the economy like how activity in the home sector has completely you know it's dried up where people are saying you know what I don't really want to sell my house because I don't want to get into a new 8% mortgage and I'm locked in at 2% so I'll just stick around you know so I I think you're just starting to feel the effects it hasn't been fully felt by the economy and you might be starting to see it roll over so how am I personally investing so I'm looking for toll booth types of companies so no matter what happens if there's a recession if there's High inflation no matter what plays out I'm comfortable owning this so it's not a cyclical auto manufacturer where it's a one-time sale it's a recurring Revenue type of business and so as an example I recently a few weeks ago and I called it out to my subscribers I bought a stock that had sold off dramatically over 50% in in matter of weeks a company called Aion and so International payments company it's effectively a financial toll booth because they're making profits off of every transaction that they're enabling with their Merchants so my view is as their Merchants have more Commerce over time or if there's more inflation over time they're going to get effectively that cut a percentage or a fee for those transactions yes it might get a little bit of a hit if there's a recession and there's less activity but broadly Aon has shown that they are taking market share you have PayPal that's one payment you know Gateway one payment processor they're growing single digits Aon saying hey we're going to grow 20 to 30% you have a company that's founder-led you know history of successful entrepreneu is entrepreneurialism you know this isn't their first company company generating lots of free cash flow so that's what I'm looking for founder Le strong cash balance sheet a toll booth type business model now subsequently the Stock's up around 30 40% after they reported a favorable investor day but I'm sharing this as a framework for how I'm personally looking at I'm not looking for the cyclicals that can get hurt significantly with the recession I'm also not waiting for a recession that's a key aspect I sometimes get you know feedback on this channel oh Daniel you're just waiting for a bottom you're trying to bottom Tech that's not it at all I'm I'm trying to opportunistically look for great companies if there's a recession if there isn't a recession I'm I'm neutral either way my view is when I see something that's really compelling that great company great cash flow strong balance sheet strong growth clearly taking market share that's when I want to pounce that's when I want to act when I you know when I see something like that I also do believe that a recession could be transformative for many people I think you could see much lower valuations with a recession like if there's a recession next year which I think a lot of people you know are willing to say like hey I I wouldn't put it at a 100% chance that it doesn't happen and so if if you unless you have that mindset that you're saying hey it's 100% chance that a recession won't happen next year that's I I'm certainly not putting that but if you do have a recession maybe it's a 10% chance maybe it's a 30% chance maybe it's a 50 % plus because you see the commentary from Walmart CEO talking about the consumer you know getting weaker softer in the back half of October I think you get that reset in valuations in which case the S&P 500 is 15 times or lower maybe closer to 12 times in which case you're looking at much lower valuations and then even more opportunities for the aggressive investor so do I think we have new highs here I don't think we have what it takes at this point I don't you know the consumer I don't believe is strong enough I think the US government's going to have to reckon with their significant proplate spending at some point where they're going to have to say okay you know interest rates where they are we're assuming 3% it's currently 5% that's a big big difference how are we going to sort of figure that out I look at this and I'm thinking I I just don't see it I don't see how you get a new sustain bull market uh you know making new highs there are spots that are great like in artificial intelligence where it's just really incredible amount of progress but broadly looking at the economy I'm you know especially with a weak consumer especially with US Government you know with with these strong deficits and where interest rates are where they are and also just cash creating that hurdle you know should the S&P 500 really go to a 25 times multiple let's say go to a 30 times multiple when cash is four to 5% I don't think so so you're automatically putting a cap on what the S&P 500 can do so it's really driven by earnings growth and are you going to get that when they're saying saying 70% of the economy via the consumer is weak I I just don't see it I I think this is choppy Waters ahead and investors should look at this and say okay let's find great companies and opportunistically purchase them you know when when you get these when they sell off when people are saying oh this is no longer a great company and you know that it is so I share my personal thoughts once again at unrival investing.com I'd love to hear your feedback Below in the comments so thanks so much for tuning in to unrival investing
Comments 0