저자: LarryFink·MarkNewton·TomLee발언인용 · 외국인
요약 보기
래리 핑크의 경기침체 경고와 관세·인플레이션 우려를 인용하며 자산 전략 재조정을 주장함. 마크 뉴턴은 주식이 바닥권이며 향후 30~60일 L자형 횡보 후 반등 가능성을 제시. 톰 리는 연말 비트코인 15만 달러 가능성을 언급. 거래소 비트코인 잔고 감소를 매도 물량 부족의 신호로 해석하며 상승 가능성 주장. 영상 말미에 특정 거래소 제휴 링크 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
We will have a recession in the United States . As I said on Monday in a talk I saw at the New York Economic Club, I said that we are very close to, if not already in, a recession. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is once again sounding the alarm. A recession is coming, he says, it may already be here. In fact, be sure to watch the entire video, as I have a lot to share with you all today.
This is Larryf's warning to all investors. Yes, we need to recalibrate. Yes, we need to recalibrate. I think we are probably starting, or perhaps already in, a recession, and the market is underestimating or anticipating how high inflation may be . If you take into account all the tariffs and all these other issues, it's going to be quite additive.
I mean, I read in a report that if you only take into account tariffs and the cost of building homes, the average price of a new home could increase by up to 26%, and we already have a problem with that. None of this sounds good to me, Larry. I mean, it's all self-inflicted. None of this was supposed to happen.
This is not a pandemic, this is not a financial crisis. It's something we created. Now, the good news is that Larry F says BlackRock's $11 trillion in clients have never had so many contacting them to ask how to navigate through this and how to allocate their own resources. Listen to it, my friend. For me, this is an opportunity to look for opportunities, and due to customer uncertainty, we are spending more time having more conversations with more customers globally than we ever have before.
Now our job is to help, calm down and of course give them ideas. As I said in the talk this morning, I believe the megatendencies are still on our side. BlackRock continues to actively encourage its clients to buy Bitcoin. It's a fact. The conversation revolved around a sovereign wealth fund . We should have an allocation of 2% or maybe 5%.
And if everyone adopted that conversation, we'd be talking about 500,000 or 600,000 or 700,000 per Bitcoin. Furthermore, Larry Fink has always said that Bitcoin is made for times like these. I believe in it and I believe that Bitcoin is legitimate when you think countries are devaluing their currency, devaluing their currency with excessive deficits, and it is truly an instrument that you invest in when you are afraid that , well, there are many countries that are devaluing their currency.
So I think we have countries where you fear for your daily existence and you have the opportunity to invest in something that is outside the financial control of your country. So, that allows you to have even more financial control. I am a big believer that there is a role for Bitcoin within wallets.
I think you'll see it as one of the asset classes that we all consider. I see it as digital gold, as I said before, and I believe that, in fact, there will come to be a great need for people to be able to see it or perceive it as an alternative to the optimism I have in the world. If you want to hedge your hopes, Bitcoin is not an instrument of hope unless you have the hope of making a lot of money.
I see it as an instrument where you express your financial acumen in something you fear most in the world, most afraid of your existence, and I think it has great industrial use, and I think many people, truly many, many people who don't know about Bitcoin are missing out on that. I couldn't agree more.
I changed my mind when you did it. Now, the good news is that even though we are at the peak of fear, the peak of despair, there is talk of going much lower, there is talk of a recession. In fact, we are in a historically and psychologically very good moment to buy quality. Funstrat's global head of technical strategy says there are many reasons to believe that while there won't be new all-time highs tomorrow, there are good reasons to think the stock market has largely bottomed out.
This friend of mine is a great analyst to listen to. Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Funstrat. One of the things we 've talked about, Mark, regardless of whether we try to rebuild Hamty Dumty at this point, is there any underlying damage that has occurred, or is this all within the realm of what happens when you see a break in the markets and then, after the break, it starts to heal itself?
Look, I think there has been quite a bit of damage in the last seven or so weeks, however, you know that the stocks have pulled back to an area that is quite significant. We have seen evidence of significant volume dispersion along with widespread depletion in recent weeks. So there is some evidence that the stock has indeed bottomed out or is doing so now.
That doesn't mean we'll go straight back to the highs. I think it's going to be a process of two steps forward and one step back. The stock markets are really likely to be in an L-shaped pattern for the next 30 to 60 days. There will be a lot of volatility and it's not going away anytime soon, but there are some technical reasons to think that markets have stabilized in the short term and may perform better in the coming months or weeks.
Can I ask something, when you say an L-shaped market performance from here, do you mean that we've already drawn the first line of the L, the bottom part, and now we're going to bounce around that? And there will be another fall before we reach that point. Obviously we've seen quite a severe deterioration and I think we could probably move sideways for another month or two before we start a rally that will be quite big.
So expect one to two months of sideways action before a bigger rally, possibly breaking all-time highs. Hey Mark, head of technical strategy, what are these signs you're seeing that tell you the market has bottomed out and we're going to stabilize? Listen to it because I love the prediction he makes at the end.
We have seen seven signs that technology is stabilizing. One of the biggest moves we've seen in the Max 7 since their lows. This morning's bank profits are very encouraging for the financial sector at a time when everyone thought they would be struggling. So financial institutions are the second largest sector within the SIP, with technology being the number one sector.
And much of the pessimism and sentiment surrounding all this money moving from the United States to other countries, I think, is really out of touch. The United States overtook the European continent and Asia during the last week, and the world appears to be catching up as the United States begins to stabilize.
Now we're going to see rates really come down over the next few months. Rate cuts are coming . Many people say the Fed will have to cut rates, and remember that Fstrat still predicts Bitcoin will reach $150,000 this year or more. Here we have its founder, Mr. Tomley. The Fed and central banks are easing.
The quarter is ending. I think that, with the wind at its back in Washington, means that Bitcoin could do well at least until the end of the year. I think 150,000 or more is still possible . I know it doesn't seem like it, but once we get past this tariff and that agenda surrounding tariffs, markets can anticipate things that could turn out to be positive.
150,000 by the end of the year. I think most people are missing out on this. Bitwise, with $12 billion in assets under management, has confirmed that Bitcoin is being drained from exchanges. Then, when this market returns, the price of Bitcoin will jump quickly and rebound strongly. Most people are not expert enough to do this research or look for it.
Make sure you subscribe to Daily because we're one of the few who share this with you . I think this is going back many years now. The balances for Bitcoin on exchange have never been this low. And what those signals is that there's a lack of sellers on the market. So people will put move from cold storage to to exchange when they're ready to sell their bitcoin.
And if if there's if the exchange if the exchanges are showing low balances um that's that means that we have few um sellers in the market and that that will be coming into play and become very interesting once there is uh a a a rise and the buyers come back into the the market for bitcoin. My prediction and of course I don't have a crystal ball and I don't know and this isn't investment advice but my feeling is that when it does start to move back up again it's going to jump um because there simply aren't any sellers and if people are bidding and trying to buy and they aren't sellers in the market they're going to just keep you know offering higher and higher prices to um to buy the bitcoin that they want.
and willure. Be sure to subscribe to the channel for daily videos that keep you up-to-date on everything crypto-related. Turn on notifications to be the first to comment and have your comments rise to the top. Use the Bitunix affiliate link to trade crypto without using your own funds. It's one of the best exchanges for leveraged trading. Make sure to use the link and we'll see you tomorrow. Ah.
Comments 0