저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인을 새로운 자산군으로 보며 장기적으로 크게 오를 것이라고 강하게 낙관한다. 핵심 주장: 혁신 자체가 자산군이며 크립토는 새로운 자산군이다. 리서치의 목적은 투자뿐 아니라 세상의 변화를 교육하는 것이다. 비트코인 견해: 비트코인은 이미 '여기 있다'는 입장이며 크립토 생태계의 기축통화(reserve currency)라고 본다. 2016년 백서에서 새 자산군을 알렸다고 설명한다. 가치 축적 구조: 인터넷과 달리 크립토에서는 가치가 애플리케이션이 아니라 프로토콜과 암호화폐 자체에 쌓일 것이라고 본다. 소수(4~5개)가 대부분의 가치를 가져갈 것이며 이더리움도 유력 후보로 언급한다. 수치 근거: 기관 포트폴리오의 5~6%가 비트코인에 배분되면 비트코인 가격에 약 50만 달러 추가 효과가 있다고 제시하며, 이는 약 10배 상승 여지로 설명한다. 기업 현금 비중(스퀘어 5%, 테슬라 8%, 마이크로스트래티지 100% 비트코인 보유 등)을 근거로 기업 배분 시 추가 상승 여지를 계산한다. 1%면 약 4만 달러, 테슬라 수준(10%)이면 약 40만 달러 증가로 제시한다. 활용 사례: 금을 대체하는 보험 성격의 자산으로서 보관·보유 비용이 없다는 점을 장점으로 든다. 리스크: 발언 중 명시적 리스크 언급은 거의 없다. 펀드는 현재 비트코인과 이더리움 두 종목으로 구성되어 있으며 다른 코인은 커스터디 문제로 아직 신중하다고 설명한다. 출연자 전망: 비트코인과 이더리움에 대해 장기 강세 전망. 기간은 5~10년 이상 장기 기준.
다듬은 글
innovation is it an asset class no uh i think the for crypto this is the new asset class crypto the crypto asset uh world and before that equities in uh the 1600s so those are asset classes our research is not just about investing our research is is educating uh individuals and businesses uh about how the world is going to change and how to get on the right side of change and stay there so that they can not only do that for themselves but guide their children and their grandchildren so i think this is much more than just investing and and i guess the technologies were right uh for uh to enable us to do this you know it couldn't have been done 20 years ago so i think everything came together wow it's an amazing phenomenon so so when you think about it do you think innovation is an asset class and if it's in fact an asset class how big can it be and how invested do you think um the market is currently well we think uh that if you mean the market institutions in particular we think they are short innovation in a big way uh we think individuals have a much higher weight in innovation and are more correctly positioned actually yes uh so innovation um is it an asset class no uh i think the the the before crypto this is the new asset class crypto the crypto asset uh world and before that equities in uh the 1600s so those are asset classes uh this is a categorization and interes interestingly uh we can look at what happened with emerging markets uh msci how did what what's its claim to fame one of its biggest is creating the category of investing called emerging markets because when i was at capital group and capital was a global investment firm at the time and then finally uh blockchain uh technology we know there go that china is going to have its own digital currency the the digital yuan and it's interesting to see how they're evolving that you know it's programmable so if they want to prevent uh transactions they'll be able to do that uh so it's it's really really interesting how quickly china is embracing these technologies and running with them i think uh on that score they want the digital yuan to become the reserve currency of asia so lots going on lots going on so so we would be remiss so turning to other asset class bitcoin so bitcoin do you think or what's your vision for bitcoin is it going to become a reserve currency is it scarcity value like real estate um it started the purview of every college student including my own um knew about bitcoin before their parents did so what's your kind of vision going on five years and 10 years for bitcoin as an asset class and a value we don't have to go out five or ten years it's here um and we believe uh we we wrote a a white paper in 2016 called bitcoin ringing the bell for a new asset class uh and so yes we believe it's here we believe that bitcoin is the reserve currency of the crypto asset ecosystem we also believe that uh there will be very few huge winners in the crypto space we think that crypto currencies are going to be the huge winners so this is really flipping the internet on its head in terms of how it evolved and the internet evolved without a payments infrastructure and the reason for that is nobody thought commerce would evolve on it this was for intelligence and academia and consumers in the united states weren't even allowed to use the internet legally until 1991 a telecommunications act um so uh we believe that uh the uh bitcoin is and crypto world the value accrual where we will see most of the value accrue is to the cryptocurrencies themselves this is not what happened in the internet in the internet the protocols so bitcoin's blockchain is one protocol ethereum another the protocols uh basically just became standards right technology standards upon which these very valuable applications were built facebook amazon and so forth the value accrued to the applications this time we think the value will accrue to the protocols themselves and the currencies as measured by their currencies we believe that bitcoin is already the reserve currency of the crypto asset ecosystem uh and and we can see that uh in that many crypto assets most i would say are are priced in terms of bitcoin so that's the unit of account the currencies uh are very important we think there will be maybe four or five that are that are going to accrue the most value now d5 watching it evolve i mean we're in the wild west decentralized finance it's very exciting and so that's probably why ether is going to be another one um we do have a a fund right now only with two currencies in it this is a private fund uh and that's bitcoin and ether but we're scouring the scene some of the custody arrangements uh associated with others like decred um aren't quite there yet uh so you know again we're we're picking our spots carefully um and so yes we think it's an asset class we think bitcoin itself uh will i was quoted in some paper i never said this but uh someone did some homework and added uh what i was saying up and said uh you know arc thinks this is a 10 trillion dollar opportunity when it came to bitcoin and i said i never said that but i i did actually say it with the building blocks we think institutional could be could institutional going to say five or six percent of institutional portfolios again very low correlation and that's sort of where real estate and emerging markets went uh that would add five hundred thousand dollars uh to bitcoin's price so right there uh that's a nearly a ten-fold increase if you look at uh playing the role of cash on the balance sheet which is we did not incorporate this into our institutional white paper because we didn't expect it to be honest but now we see square and tesla and microstrategy they have diversified some in the case of square and uh tesla it's five and eight percent respectively uh microstrategy it's a hundred percent of their cash in bitcoin um so if you if you if you were to expect uh uh one percent uh if corporations did that i think this is just a u.s calculation too that would be a 40 000 increase uh in bitcoin uh if it's ten percent closer to where tesla is uh that would be a four hundred thousand dollar increase in the price so again uh another eight-fold inc and those are just two use cases i mean the biggest use case is an insurance policy for anyone in the world so it would be replacing gold plus there's no carrying and holding costs exactly which is a huge win you
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