저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2022년 말 기준 크립토 붕괴와 거시경제 전망을 비관적으로 본다는 결론이다. 거시 유동성: 2008년 이후 각국 중앙은행과 정부가 찍어낸 약 30~35조 달러 규모의 돈이 경제에 잘못 들어가 있었고, 이를 흡수·소멸시켜야 진짜 수급 균형이 나온다고 주장. 인플레이션: 임대료(3개월 시차)와 유가(배럴당 105달러, 러시아의 유럽 가스 공급 압박)가 올라 향후 3~5개월간 CPI가 7~9%까지 갈 수 있다고 전망. 연준은 신뢰 회복을 위해 과잉 긴축(오버코렉트)할 수밖에 없다는 시각. 시장 바닥: 시장 바닥은 약 18개월 후에나 올 것으로 예상, 긴 침체를 예고. 크립토: 토큰 발행 후 즉시 매도 가능한 구조의 사기성 요소, 거래소 내부자가 주문 흐름을 선취매(프론트런)해 수백억 달러를 벌고 있다고 주장. 바이낸스 소송 대상 확인 문제도 언급. 통계 신뢰성: CPI 산출 방식이 낡았다며 결제사 데이터 활용 필요성을 지적. 에너지·정책: 미국이 에너지 독립과 배터리 산업에서 중국(CATL 등)에 뒤처지고 있으며, 테슬라 배제 등 정책 실패를 비판. [대상 자산 예측 발언] 비트코인 등 크립토 자산은 전반적으로 하락 우위로 본다는 취지지만 명확한 1~3개월 가격 목표는 없음; 미국채금리는 인플레 지속으로 상승 압력(고금리) 전망, 거시 악재 지속 관점.
다듬은 글
so if you think about taking 30 trillion dollars out of the global economy you know you're talking about almost i think it's 85 trillion is the world gdp so like you know it's it's it's almost half of an entire year's worth of global gdp it's going to take three years probably so it seems like we're at the beginning of the beginning of something that's going to be long and drawn out venture capitalist spac sponsor and founder and ceo of social capital chamath pal hapatia shares an updated outlook for the economic markets and fed's most recent decisions he speaks about the crypto collapse and its impact on the global economy along with the worst kept secret in crypto chamf also updates about the key reasons why economy is in a bad state and why the next three to five months of cpi will be very bad chamath reveals why he thinks the market bottom doesn't happen for another 18 months the thing that you have to do before you talk about what is happening now i think it's probably useful to go back and you have to really start at the end of the great financial crisis and the reason is there was a bunch of people coming out of the gfc who confused what the u.s government and some european governments were doing at the time there was the risk of a huge financial contagion and so the u.s stepped in and the federal reserve started to use their balance sheet to buy toxic assets right and the ecb did that and i think japan did that as well anyways a bunch of banks did it i mean a bunch of governments did it and then there was this body of pseudoscientist certificate economists who coined this thing called modern monetary theory which basically said hey you can keep printing money and introducing it into the economy to smooth things out and to actually drive long-term growth and it turns out that a bunch of government officials fell for it and if you fast forward to 2022 so 14 years later governments around the world had printed something to the tune of about 30 35 odd trillion dollars of money into the economy that should have never been there so the thing to remember is like we have not necessarily just been obfuscating true supply demand in the last six or eight months when we've been talking about a recession or inflation we've been actually doing it since 2008 it's just that it's been building up in the system so one of the things that we have to realize is that all of that money somehow needs to get destroyed in some way shape or form if the true economic equilibrium is meant to be found what is true supply what is true demand in the absence of government sloshing money around trying to prop up things that should not be propped up or buying votes or all the griffs that these folks have engaged in in the last you know decade and a half have to get undone this is my understanding of the scam because it was explained to me you put in a little bit of equity at some crazy price and then you get these tokens and apparently there's no like you can just sell these tokens day one and so what happens is like you you price the equity but it's meaningless because really what you're getting is the right to get some amount of these tokens the price is crazy you sell it and then you just kind of walk away there's an article i think it was in bloomberg um about folks trying to figure out how to get um a lawsuit filed against binance and the problem was that they didn't even know what entity to sue so if that's what's happening in a trillion dollar market there's um i mean it's gonna be a lot of people it's free it's a lot of oversight i think we have to also be sensitive to the fact that the fed operates on a certain class of data and that data in the 21st century is pretty pathetic um nick you can probably find this but there was an article i think it was in the new york times that really walk through how cpi is calculated and it's a bunch of people that work for the government that walk around with ipads building relationships with local businesses and all these random places all around the country and asking them to you know chit chat for 15 minutes and do these surveys now you would have thought that in 2023 or 2022 what the government would have said to you know visa mastercard american express all the payment rails the banks and stripe is send me a feed in the following structured way so that i can actually have an absolute precise sense of inflation because inflation really only occurs when a good or a service trades hands for money right and you calculate what did that thing trade at the day before and what is a trade for today i think you need to buckle your seat belt because the next three four five months of cpi will probably be very very bad seven eight nine percent why there are a handful of components that have gotten completely run away number one the biggest one is rent and so rent works on a three-month lag we're going to reintroduce what the true owner's equivalent rent is into cpi so we can already forecast that cpi going up oil is at 105 bucks a barrel russia is basically trying to break the back of europe by now messing with their nat gas supplies the german energy minister yesterday said that if that happens it could be a contagion equivalent to lehman brothers with respect to energy when you play all of these things out what you have is unfortunately rampant runaway costs that really have no mechanism to get back in check in the absence of some real governmental changes our policy on this ukraine russia war you know how we intend to sort of uh work or cooperate or fight with china all of these things have to get solved so in the absence of that prices are going to continue to go up and so what does the fed do how does it throw away what little credibility it has left when there's eight and nine percent inflation prints and saying we think we're done for right now you can't do that so they will over correct because there is just going to be so much pressure for them to act i mean it's the worst kept secret in crypto how much insider trading is going on amongst the organizations that run the exchanges and their side pockets that they use to to manage liquidity i mean this is the it's the biggest thing that's been happening in crypto it's not illegal to front run crypto trade so most of these organizations that that run an exchange right compete for order flow and they're able to just look at that order flow and then they front run the trade and they're on the other side of that so they're always making money and so they were making tens of billions of dollars speaking of china for a second you know we talk and we we bloviate about our desire for energy independence and you know we exclude tesla from you know any sort of major meaningful legislation we trumpet you know these companies that are just completely woefully behind uh in building energy independence we think about like a gas tax holiday but as like kind of like a you know something that still needs an act of congress to pass even though congress has said they have absolutely no intention of passing it meanwhile we keep losing our footing to china just today catl which is one of the largest battery manufacturers announced a pretty meaningful improvement in their you know 3.0 battery design these guys are now building batteries that can go a thousand kilometers um in both of the major uh compositions that really matter nmc and lfp and i just look at these things and i'm like wow we cannot actually get capacity funded to build domestic battery capability because we're too busy kind of basically virtue signaling on things that don't matter and in return nothing happens china continues to lap us we uh it's really it's a really bad state of affairs we are uh we are in a very odd period in terms of government effectiveness so what are your thoughts about cham matt's outlook on market bottom
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