저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인·디파이(DeFi)와 혁신 플랫폼이 향후 금융·에너지·교통 시장을 크게 재편하며, 관련 시장 시총이 10년간 연 30% 성장할 것으로 전망하지만 그 과정에서 반복적 버블과 붕괴(booms and busts)가 불가피하다고 주장. [비트코인·통화혁명] 비트코인은 세계 최초의 글로벌 탈중앙 사설 통화 시스템이며, 엘살바도르 사례처럼 통화위기를 겪는 신흥국들이 달러·유로 의존에서 벗어나기 위해 이 시스템을 점점 더 채택할 것으로 봄. 중국을 제외한 신흥국들이 관심을 보이며, 중국은 디지털 위안화를 아시아 기축통화로 만들려 함. 최근 비트코인이 44,000달러를 돌파했고, 과거 S&P500 조정기에 비트코인이 선행 신호를 보였다고 언급. [디파이·금융서비스 혁명] 디파이(DeFi)가 중개자를 제거해 대부분의 금융서비스 기업을 대체할 것으로 봄. 예금자에겐 높은 금리, 차입자에겐 낮은 금리를 제공. 규제당국은 투자자 보호 목적에서 디파이를 주시하고 있으나, 적절한 가드레일은 모두에게 좋다는 입장. [비트코인 채굴과 에너지] 상트페테르부르크 등 태양광 과잉 전력을 채굴에 활용하면 재생에너지 전환이 가속화될 수 있다고 주장. 중국의 채굴 금지 이후 미국이 최대 수혜자가 되어 채굴의 약 34~35%가 미국에서 이뤄진다고 언급. 머스크·잭 도시 등도 이 문제에 관심. [5대 혁신 플랫폼] DNA 시퀀싱, 로봇공학, 에너지 저장, 인공지능, 블록체인 등 5개 플랫폼이 동시에 지수적 성장 궤도에 있으며, 14개 기반 기술이 수렴 중. 이들 관련 시장 시총이 향후 10년간 연 30% 성장할 것으로 전망. 1900년대 초(전화·전기·자동차) 이후 이런 변화는 없었다고 강조. [전기차·비용] 배터리·AI·로봇 기술 준비가 끝났고 비용도 충분히 낮아졌다고 봄. 전기차의 총소유비용(TCO)은 이미 내연기관차보다 낮으며, 2년 내 가격 동등, 이후 30% 이상 저렴해질 것으로 예상. 테슬라(머스크)와 중국의 기여를 언급. [리스크·버블] 블록체인은 아직 초기이며 붐과 붕괴가 반복될 것. 작년 약 반토막 난 크래시 당시 투기적 레버리지가 대량 청산되었으나 디파이 시스템은 멈추지 않아 중요한 시험을 통과했다고 평가. 일부 블록체인은 자연선택으로 소멸할 것. [출연자 전망] 캐시 우드는 장기적 낙관론자이며, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
bitcoin crosses the 44 thousand dollar level after this week's crypto rally russia might let businesses buy oil with bitcoin actually is providing kind of cues for the s p 500 we saw its corrective phase late last year ensue before the corrective phase in the s p 500. in big ideas we describe this by uh using the term revolutions there are three revolutions taking place simultaneously right now one is a money revolution one is a financial services revolution and one is a next generation internet revolution uh so on the money revolution bitcoin and ether to some extent but bitcoin surely it is the most secure network out there um is the first and each one of these words is really important the first global private decentralized uh monetary system ever invented and it is going to have profound ramifications just ask the people in el salvador and uh recently president buchelli of el salvador had a conversation with president erdogan of turkey because they are going through a currency crisis and so i think the emerging markets are going to adopt uh this kind of monetary system increasingly because their own monetary systems uh very dependent often on the dollar or on the euro or someone else who does not control uh the population they want to they they would prefer not to be dependent on politicians this doesn't involve politicians uh so that's the monetary revolution and we think that um it's going to proliferate faster emerging markets are very interested uh except for china of course uh they're interested in making the digital yuan the reserve currency of asia the second revolution is in the financial services industry we do believe that defy decentralized finance is going to usurp the role of most financial services companies today most financial services companies are middlemen and d5 takes the middlemen out of the equation you know in the early early days some of uh some of your viewers may know of lending club and it took some middlemen out of the equation was able to offer higher rates to savers and lower rates uh to borrowers and became very very popular very quickly we'll put that on steroids that's what we have going on in d5 and again it's a global movement all of these are global they are not um they're not being governed by any particular nationality now regulators have uh are now turning their sights on d5 my observation is that regulators want to protect the the little guy the average investor uh that's their mandate and that's good uh prevent uh frauds and and other such things but regulators want to encourage innovation so i think uh putting guard rails around is going to be a good thing for everyone you know with the way the electrical grid is evolving we could see bitcoin mining become a part of that infrastructure uh here in st petersburg for example you know we fill up our energy storage units uh quite easily because it's so sunny here the overflow could go to bitcoin mining which would uh which would accelerate the shift towards renewables because the whole ecosystem will become so much more profitable over time well i think china banning mining was very helpful in that regard yes and uh so the us was the biggest beneficiary of that uh i think 34 or 5 of the mining now is taking place here in the united states uh and uh kazakhstan uh also uh so uh we're we're seeing uh people like elon musk and jack dorsey who both care an awful lot about the environment trying to figure this problem out and in fact the what i just mentioned about bitcoin becoming a part of bitcoin mining becoming a part of a utility ecosystem came out of research that we at ark had done led by brett winton our director of research and uh yasin elmandra who's our lead crypto analyst working with square we were able to dimension uh how much uh that solar and wind would proliferate how much faster it would proliferate with bitcoin mining as a part of the ecosystem as opposed to without it that research is starting to bear fruit we're seeing utility ecosystems uh you know they're they're getting the plot and they're they're looking for new ways to profit and in the meantime or in the process they will be accelerating the shift towards renewables ironically given the way people talk about bitcoin in a broad sense we have never been uh like this moment in history in terms of the amount of change that is about to it's already started we feel the ground as you just said shifting underneath us it has already started you know five major innovation platforms evolving at the same time you have to go back to the early 1900s to see anything like it you had three platforms then you had telephone electricity and automobile today you have dna sequencing uh you heard it on the conference dna sequencing robotics energy storage artificial intelligence blockchain technologies all of them are an exponential growth trajectories and they are converging with one another in massively important ways and profound ways and they're going to deliver we believe if you just take a look at the technologies themselves over the next 10 years we believe the market cap associated with these five platforms and the 14 underlying technologies is going to scale at a 30 compound annual rate of return these are astonishing rates of return it is going to change for two reasons uh beyond the environmental concerns uh one the technologies are ready the kind of battery technology artificial intelligence and uh robotics those three actually that's a convergence taking place in the transportation field whether you're talking about autonomous vehicles ultimately or drones for parcels or food delivery and so forth so yes you're absolutely right these worlds are the digital and the physical world finally are converging because the technology's ready and just as important the costs are low enough the costs were prohibitively high before uh especially when it came to electric vehicle sort of battery technology but thanks to elon musk and i would say also to the chinese who are moving very quickly in this direction uh that is no longer true in fact the total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle most people don't know this is lower today than that for a gas powered vehicle most people just look at the sticker price yep and we think in in two years that they they will be the same price and then a few years after that uh we believe that electric vehicles will be 30 plus lower in price so these cost declines continue in emerging technologies whereas the internal combustion engine is a very mature technology what we've seen already in the short life of the blockchain world is booms and busts we are very early we are very early and when you're early into a new technology this is not only a monetary system but it's really a new technology a new platform in the early days expect booms and busts and what i analyze as we're going through the bust side of that roller coaster is how fragile or anti-fragile the ecosystem is for example may a year ago we went through a crash i mean bitcoin was it would be considered a crash uh bitcoin was cut in half as and other uh crypto assets were cut by more than that and i was fascinated to watch the defy ecosystem through all of that because what i thought was going on was there was a lot of leverage when you talk about speculation and mania what happens is speculators are taking on leverage in order to capitalize on this boom they don't even understand what it is some of the later ones getting in they just know that their friends said no you got to get in it's been going and then you have a crash and a shakeout last may when that happened to d5 i thought that was a very important moment for d5 not maybe nfts yet but d5 and for bitcoin because the d5 ecosystem did not skip a beat there were millions of people wiped out because they had taken on leverage all they were doing was speculating and yet this smart contract operating system effectively didn't skip a beat it did not break down that was very important you're going to see some of these blockchains flame out over time so we are in the process of natural selection when it comes to these ecosystems so fully expect there to be booms and busts you
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