저자: CathieWood외Grayscale소속MichaelSonnenshein · 외국인
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결론: 기관 자금의 비트코인 유입을 낙관하며 비트코인을 디지털 금·위험회피 자산으로 평가한다. 기관 투자 동향: 마이크로스트래티지 외 기관(매사추세츠뮤추얼 등)의 비트코인 편입이 예상보다 빨랐고, 현금성 자산 다각화 목적의 유입이 긍정적 서프라이즈라고 평가. 포트폴리오 논리: 60/40 전략에서 채권이 40년 금리 하락 추세 종료로 역할이 약해졌고, 그 대안으로 암호화폐를 제시. 금리·디플레이션 전망: 기술혁신과 파괴적 혁신에 따른 디플레이션 환경을 전제로 금리가 크게 오르지 않을 것으로 봄. 다만 양적완화 등 규칙 없는 통화정책에 대한 우려로 비트코인의 분산 가치를 강조. 가격·규모: 비트코인 시가총액(네트워크 가치) 약 9,000~9,500억 달러로, 애플 시총의 절반 미만이라 성장 여지가 크다고 주장. 구체적 목표가는 제시되지 않음. 위험회피 자산 논쟁: 이날 채권·주식이 하락하고 비트코인이 상승한 점을 들어 위험회피 자산 전환 가능성을 언급. Wood는 현금이 궁극적 위험회피 자산인데 비트코인이 그 역할을 일부 맡는다고 봄. 반면 Sonnenshein은 아직 이르다는 입장. 투자자 저변: 모멘텀·기술주 투자자뿐 아니라 가치·리스크 차익 투자자 등 전 영역으로 배분이 확산 중이라고 설명. 다만 모든 투자자에게 적합하지는 않다고 단서. 규제: SEC·CFTC·IRS·FinCEN·재무부의 암호화폐 관련 입장 표명이 자산 지속성에 정당성을 더한다고 평가. 미국 규제 태도가 글로벌 영향력을 가진다고 봄. 중국 및 기술: 중국의 자본통제 목적상 비트코인 노출을 제한하려 한다고 진단, 개방형 기술의 고립은 경쟁력 문제라고 지적. 비트코인 블록체인의 느린 속도와 높은 비용은 결함이 아니라 보안성의 특징이며, 다른 블록체인이 등장해도 비트코인의 디지털 금 역할은 유지될 것이라고 주장. 리스크: 규제 불확실성과 모든 투자자에게 맞지 않는다는 점을 명시.
다듬은 글
uh sure well um we're as you know very optimistic on both i think the biggest surprise to us in the last year we expected institutional investors to start moving into uh bitcoin uh on that score mass mutual was a surprise a positive surprise to think about all the hoops that mass mutual had to go through to put a hundred million dollars on its general account even though it's point zero zero one percent they have to go through a lot of regulatory hoops so that was a big surprise our positive surprise though we expected institutional investors to start moving in what we did not expect from institutions was you know the diversification on their balance sheet in a diversification of their cash assets into bitcoin that has been a positive surprise that we think is going to continue we think that uh and there's another thing that we think could come out of this related to it you think about 60 40 when you talk about balanced accounts 60 equity 40 bonds well look what's happening to bonds right now uh talk about the need for diversification here if we are ending a 40-year secular decline in interest rates and or even just flattening out or moving up slightly that asset class has done its thing what's next and we think crypto could be the solution now i don't think rates are going up a lot i agree with you we are in a deflationary environment for two reasons one is massive innovation which is technologically enabled and deflationary in nature and then the second is creative destruction which is caused by disruptive innovation forcing highly leveraged companies to cut prices to support their debt service so we see those two coming at us yes uh but we do know there's a concern given all of the quantitative easing and the unhinged monetary policy there's no rules-based monetary policy out there except for bitcoin and crypto so we think this diversification makes sense in terms of cash but fixed income has really done 40 years of very hard work and sure we'll be in a deflationary environment but if bitcoin is represents a new asset class why not uh move into it well to me that's a key point that's happening lately i mentioned this on live tv and sometimes you get the pushback it's like oh that's the trigger i wanted i see bitcoin certainly today potentially transitioning to the risk off asset i mean funds are flowing from equities i.e tesla from bonds from gold and you look at days like today bonds are down stocks are down bitcoin's up is that a potential here are we kicking into the flexion where bitcoin maybe is a risk-off asset it's a tina there's no other alternative i think we're in such early days here when you think that the market cap or network value of bitcoin is roughly 900 950 billion dollars think about that in the in the context of an apple it's less than half of apple's valuation and here we're talking about the reserve currency of the crypto asset world the first global digital monetary system uh it's a very big idea and now we have institutions moving uh embracing this idea or at least uh using bitcoin as a hedge against what could go wrong and so as you say mike there is a a a risk off i mean when you think about it cash is supposed to be the ultimate risk off asset of choice and and here we have uh bitcoin certainly that role it's very interesting i don't i think it may be early to say it's risk off though mike um what i would say though what we're seeing and experiencing from investors is that it's not necessarily only going to be those momentum traders or folks that generally only invest in technology or technology related investments that have become excited about allocating to crypto um thinking about our investor base we're really starting to see allocations across investor mandates um and it's not just global macro folks for whom crypto now could certainly be considered to be part of the ways in which they invest in their investment mandates but it's really moving towards even value investors risk arb investors it really runs the entire gambit and i think you know the reason why i say it may be early to call it risk off is because it's now generally going to be accepted as something that everyone can evaluate as an investment option but i still would say it's not necessarily something that's going to be appropriate for every investor out there given where we are in the life cycle of this the fact that we now have tangible commentary and or policy um related to this asset class from the sec cftc irs fincen um treasury it it does definitely add some validation to the asset classes staying power and i do think that all of the folks in each of the seats at those respective organizations certainly recognize the role that the regulatory regimes here in the u.s play on a global level so to your point mike about this being global in nature decentralized protocols that are gaining adoption on a global level certainly the us's stance and posture towards this is certainly going to be paramount and i certainly know that they appreciate that the world is watching and so to kathy's point having regulators um you know taking on new seats who are familiar with this technology um you know we're totally hopeful that they will continue to if not broaden uh their engagement with the industry i just wanted to go ahead oh sorry make one comment on your economy your focus on china which i believe is apt uh so bitcoin that the bitcoin blockchain is an open source technology and uh china mostly for capital control reasons really wants to limit its exposure it wants its own currency i think this is a really important point because open source technologies if you're going to isolate your country from all of this innovation uh you know that's a problem competitively and i've i've been thinking about that uh quite a bit are our competitive uh dynamic relative to china and i i also agree the regulators uh in the us while they they have been really not forceful in any way they uh they have basically stood back and they do not want to be blamed for for preventing the next big thing the next big thing in the internet as you say and i see there's a question here about the technology is this old is this going to be old tech i think that the beauty of the bitcoin blockchain is that its uh speed and cost are not you proved this before in the community are not bugs not they are features this is the most secure blockchain out there and so the idea of digital gold on in the the most secure network in the world is really an important concept here so no it's not old technology there are going to be other other technologies other blockchains for other use cases that will not serve the same purpose as bitcoin but i don't think that they will obviate bitcoin's role you
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