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there have been a lot of increased fears just lately uh fears about all kinds of things whether it's tensions with china whether it's energy prices whether it's fears of inflation and rising potential long-term interest rates whether it's fears about american political and legislative issues some people want these some people hate these you've got concerns that the economy's slowing down you've got you've got you've got and a long time ago i wrote a forbes column that i called a freto meter and basically i made the point that when you see lots and lots and lots and lots of things that suddenly start going ping ping ping we're afraid of this we're afraid of that we're afraid of the other that these are signs of sentiment cooling from a sentiment that been a little too overly optimistic and that these things no one of which is actually overwhelmingly huge but all of which make people feel like they're up against a wall of ping ping ping ping ping lead us to a world that takes away almost any form of what had previously been a concern which is are we moving toward euphoria and expectations that are so high that no reasonable set of realities could possibly live up to those expectations but the pinging of the fredo meter is a sign that those have gone away dropping sentiment down into levels that today we can measure uh in lots of ways including some formalized sentiment indexes that take you back down to the lower end of the spectrum of optimism as lots of you've heard me say over and over and over again over the decades legendary deceased now wonderful man sir john templeton a legendary investor who by happenstance i shared his birthday just a different year after he had it first so john you would say bull markets are born on pessimism grow on skepticism mature on optimism and diet euphoria and that's almost always true except for some rare occasions when it's not and once you get up into that higher level of optimism it tends to limit the upside potential to the market but when you get all of these kind of freto meter type concerns bringing sentiment back down to the lower level of optimism it provides another leg to the pool market and a fair amount of time and that's an optimistic thing that people don't recognize at the time as optimistic most all these fears are ones that are widely banded very well known and people can rarely accept in their bones that markets pre-price all widely known information fears opinions etc and that feature of that pre-pricing applies to almost every one of these some of them are actually false fears things where you should think about them the other way around you can look up uh on a google search or whatever and see i've written a lot of things about why quantitative easing is regularly seen upside down and backwards and the end of quantitative easing is a good thing not a bad thing and is actually something that would help buoy the world but people have some little fears of the tapering of quantitative easing that concept is a that fear is a false factor fear of false factor is always always always bullish so basically pretty much all these things as near as i can tell are either ones that are very widely priced and bringing down sentiment which is bullish or fear of a false factor which is doubly bullish and therefore this process where we've seen sentiment drop is actually a really good thing for stocks looking forward
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