저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 최근 쏟아지는 공포 헤드라인(중국 긴장, 에너지 가격, 인플레이션, 장기금리 상승, 정치·입법 이슈, 경기 둔화 우려)은 투자심리를 낮춰 주식시장에 오히려 호재라는 주장. 핵심 주장 1: 여러 우려가 연달아 나타나는 현상을 'Fredo 미터(공포 지표)'로 보고, 이는 과도한 낙관(euphoria)이 식고 있다는 신호라고 설명. 핵심 주장 2: 존 템플턴의 격언을 인용해 강세장은 비관에서 태어나 회의에서 자라고 낙관에서 성숙하며 도취에서 끝난다고 설명. 심리가 낮은 구간은 상승 여력을 남긴다는 논리. 핵심 주장 3: 널리 알려진 공포는 이미 가격에 선반영되어 있으며, 공개된 정보·우려·의견은 대부분 시장에 반영된다고 주장. 핵심 주장 4: 양적완화(QE) 축소(테이퍼링)에 대한 공포는 잘못된 공포(false factor)이며, QE 종료는 오히려 세계 경제에 도움이 된다는 견해. 잘못된 공포는 이중으로 강세 신호라고 봄. 결론적 전망: 심리 위축 과정은 앞으로 주식에 매우 좋은 신호이며, 투자자 심리가 낮아진 현재 상황을 긍정적으로 해석. 조건/리스크: 명시적 기간이나 목표가는 제시되지 않았고, 시장 일반에 대한 낙관적 전망이며 특정 종목·지수 수치는 언급되지 않음. 예외적으로 템플턴 격언이 항상 맞지는 않는다는 단서 존재. 출연자 전망: 주식시장 전반에 대해 중장기적으로 낙관적.
다듬은 글
there have been a lot of increased fears just lately uh fears about all kinds of things whether it's tensions with china whether it's energy prices whether it's fears of inflation and rising potential long-term interest rates whether it's fears about american political and legislative issues some people want these some people hate these you've got concerns that the economy's slowing down you've got you've got you've got and a long time ago i wrote a forbes column that i called a freto meter and basically i made the point that when you see lots and lots and lots and lots of things that suddenly start going ping ping ping we're afraid of this we're afraid of that we're afraid of the other that these are signs of sentiment cooling from a sentiment that been a little too overly optimistic and that these things no one of which is actually overwhelmingly huge but all of which make people feel like they're up against a wall of ping ping ping ping ping lead us to a world that takes away almost any form of what had previously been a concern which is are we moving toward euphoria and expectations that are so high that no reasonable set of realities could possibly live up to those expectations but the pinging of the fredo meter is a sign that those have gone away dropping sentiment down into levels that today we can measure uh in lots of ways including some formalized sentiment indexes that take you back down to the lower end of the spectrum of optimism as lots of you've heard me say over and over and over again over the decades legendary deceased now wonderful man sir john templeton a legendary investor who by happenstance i shared his birthday just a different year after he had it first so john you would say bull markets are born on pessimism grow on skepticism mature on optimism and diet euphoria and that's almost always true except for some rare occasions when it's not and once you get up into that higher level of optimism it tends to limit the upside potential to the market but when you get all of these kind of freto meter type concerns bringing sentiment back down to the lower level of optimism it provides another leg to the pool market and a fair amount of time and that's an optimistic thing that people don't recognize at the time as optimistic most all these fears are ones that are widely banded very well known and people can rarely accept in their bones that markets pre-price all widely known information fears opinions etc and that feature of that pre-pricing applies to almost every one of these some of them are actually false fears things where you should think about them the other way around you can look up uh on a google search or whatever and see i've written a lot of things about why quantitative easing is regularly seen upside down and backwards and the end of quantitative easing is a good thing not a bad thing and is actually something that would help buoy the world but people have some little fears of the tapering of quantitative easing that concept is a that fear is a false factor fear of false factor is always always always bullish so basically pretty much all these things as near as i can tell are either ones that are very widely priced and bringing down sentiment which is bullish or fear of a false factor which is doubly bullish and therefore this process where we've seen sentiment drop is actually a really good thing for stocks looking forward
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