저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리(Scion Asset Management)가 반도체 ETF(SOXX) 숏 포지션을 정리한 것으로 보도됨. 13F 기준 포트폴리오를 25개 종목으로 확대. 버리의 과거 시장 붕괴 예측은 S&P500 상승으로 빗나갔다고 정리. 발표자는 SOXX가 AI 수요로 신고점 부근이며, 10~20% 조정 시 매수 기회라고 봄.
다듬은 글
OK. So, let's talk about Michael Bury. Last fall, he opened a short position in semiconductors through an ETF, ticker SOXX. ETFs. And it managed to hold on until the price reached this support zone at $48. And then at a certain point, the position started working against him. And we recently learned that he exited when the price went against him.
Okay, let's review this article and then continue with the chart analysis. Michael Bury's investment firm has backed out of a bet against successful semiconductor manufacturers like Nvidia. Nvidia was showing explosive growth, and in return, the firm began buying up stocks across various industries, according to a regulatory filing on Wednesday.
So, Scion Asset Management nearly doubled its portfolio to 25 positions after closing a bet against the iShares Semiconductor ETF, according to a 13F report that discloses the firm's positions through the end of 2023. In a separate report for November, Scion reported holding 100,000 put options related to this semiconductor ETF.
The face value was $47 million, based on the fund's closing price at the end of September. The actual value of the option position was significantly lower and depended on the specific terms of the contracts concluded . Sometime in the last three months of the year, Scion closed out this position, according to the latest report.
Meanwhile, stocks rose 22% in the fourth quarter as chipmakers continued to post profits amid AI euphoria. OK. Now, I'm not surprised that he failed again. And the reason I say that—just look at history. So, in December 2015, he predicted a stock market crash in the coming months. But the S&P 500 index rose 11% over the next 12 months.
In May 2017, he predicted a new financial collapse. However, the S&P 500 showed a 19% increase over the following 12 months. In September 2019, he predicted a market collapse due to an index ETF "bubble," but the S&P 500 rose 15% over the next 12 months . In March 2020, he consistently maintained a bearish outlook, but the S&P 500 soared 72%.
In February 2021, he predicted a significant drop in the stock market due to a speculative " bubble." However, the S&P 500 rose 60% in the following months. In September 2022, he predicted new setbacks and that the lows had not yet been reached, but the S&P showed positive dynamics with a 21% increase.
Last January, he predicted a recession and a new cycle of inflation. However, S&P showed extremely positive results . So, this is his latest story. Now for the charts: this monthly time frame seller level at $548 has worked once, but AI powered by Nvidia and Super Micro Computer is pushing this ETF much higher.
Here was a wonderful situation. I wonder if he opened a long position when the price reached an all-time high back in December . You had a rollback to what used to be the level of monthly sellers. This movement is upward. What was resistance became support, and now the price is back at new all-time highs, and, um, because of the hype around AI, you know, I expected the stock to go higher.
Could we see a 10-20% correction? Yes, and that would be a great buying opportunity. So don't chase the price. If you want to play on all the AI-enabled semiconductors, you know, a potential pullback to what was once again the level of the monthly sellers would be a good macro perspective. Thank you for watching. Subscribe. Please like the video.
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