저자: JimRogers,JimRickards,GeraldCelente · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 세 출연자 모두 금을 장기적으로 긍정적으로 보나, 단기 등락에는 신중하거나 보유 입장이다. [금 가격 전망] Rickards는 금이 장기적으로 1만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 주장하며, 1900달러 부근 급등 후 50% 되돌림(약 1050달러)이 나온 뒤 다시 상승 중이라고 설명한다. 다만 단기 전망은 명확히 제시하지 않았다. [금 가격 배경] 금은 11월 저점 약 1128달러 이후 꾸준히 상승해 2017년 최고 수익 자산 중 하나였다고 언급한다. 1300달러 돌파 후 하락은 헤지펀드 차익실현 때문이라고 본다. [달러와 금] 금을 달러 가격으로만 보지 않고 화폐로 보며, 달러 약세가 금 가격 상승 요인이라고 설명한다. 옐런의 긴축으로 디스인플레이션이 나타나 달러 약세가 필요하다는 논리다. [지정학 리스크] 북한 긴장 고조에도 금이 지속 상승하지 못한 이유는 투자자들의 짧은 관심 지속 시간 때문이라는 지적이 나온다. Rickards는 전쟁 가능성을 높게 보지만, Rogers는 트럼프가 먼저 움직이지 않으면 전쟁은 없을 것이라고 본다. [시장 전망] Rogers는 다음 약세장이 우리 생애 최악일 것이라고 언급했고, 투자자는 아는 것에 투자해야 살아남는다고 조언한다. 시장이 사상 최고치를 기록 중이라 종말 우려는 과하다고 본다. [비트코인] Rickards는 비트코인을 작은 시장으로 보며 시세조종 가능성을 지적한다. Rogers는 직접 사지 않았다고 밝혔다. Celente는 중국 위안화 약세와 규제가 비트코인에 영향을 준다고 보며, 장기적으로 비트코인 미래는 있지만 금이 대체 불가 실물자산이라고 주장한다. 비트코인이 40000~50000달러 간다는 주장과 거품이라는 주장이 맞서고 있으며 Celente는 가격 상승이 너무 빨랐다고 본다. [금 단기 전망] Celente는 1400달러 돌파 후 1460~1480달러를 넘으면 2000달러까지 갈 수 있다고 전망한다. 현재는 박스권이며 지정학 리스크에 의한 급등은 지속되기 어렵다고 본다. [금리·환율] Celente는 금리 인상이 있어도 물가 상승을 감안하면 실질금리는 여전히 낮다고 보며, 달러는 올해 약 7% 약세라고 언급한다. [출연자 소속] Rogers, Rickards, Celente 모두 해설자 입장이며 별도 종목 추천은 없다.
다듬은 글
after propelling through the 1,300 mark and rising 1% on Tuesday gold is back down again still above 1300 but it has retreated after hitting that 11 month high so why is gold safe-haven appeal so here today but gone tomorrow why can't it stick joining me in studio today is the best-selling author of currency wars Jim Rickards Jim good to have you back in studio with you Danielle so here today gone tomorrow that's how a lot of people would sum up this our recent gold rally we saw with the news out of North Korea did for gold why does it seem that some geopolitical tensions have more impact on the metal than others well there are two things going on one is you right there the poeple on Friday had to do with this neroli this week had to do with this missile and as people are saying well okay it's not World War three no one's dropping in a nuclear bombs so it goes back down again I don't quite understand that reaction this is a very serious threat we're heading for war with North Korea I don't know what it's gonna take to get not just gold to go up but you know stocks and other markers to be affected by it people seem to have very short attention spans they go for snow breaking out today it's all good that's not how I think about it I'm just looking down the road you can see the war is coming Kim Jong is not deviating from his path to get ICBMs and nuclear weapons the US will not allow it there's no middle ground there it'd be great if we could have diplomacy I think we should ratchet up sanctions on China but I don't see anything happening silly so when this pet to where so but having said that yet gold goes up to 1320 back down to 13 11 people go why doesn't it say after that hi look it's a little bit of profit-taking don't don't underestimate the extent to which gold is such as Gold Buyers it's a hedge funds are in it leverage players are in it they don't really care what's gold soybeans or beans I mean they just to them it's just another commodity so they have a nice profit they'll take profits they have tight stops if it's not a little bit they have to sell so but the bigger picture the one I'm looking at is gold in interim low on December 15th about 11 28 now it's 1,000 9 xx or was nothing it's been grinding higher ever since it's up over $200 an ounce it's the best performing asset one of those performing asked us of 2017 now you have spin up and down but there's a pattern of heis goes up and down up and down but every time it goes up it goes a little higher than the time before that's a very positive pattern for both but it always comes back to the US dollar though right whenever there's a direct threat to the US dollar don't we really see that rally happen more so for gold well now you're into the currency war it's a very good question Dan yeah we people say the price of gold here I think of gold by weight I said how many ounces how many kilos how many times do you have that's that's how I think about it but yeah most people talk about the dollar price of go but you're kind of privileged in the dollar you're saying the dollars the way to count everything well you can count gold in Euros you can count on Bitcoin and count on Japanese yen so I think of gold as money I think of the dollar is certainly money the euro is money these are all just crust rates so when I see a higher dollar price for gold I just think that the dollars weaker likewise if I see a lower dollar price for gold I said well Gold's constant the dollar just got stronger so what's really going on now is well three things are going on what is the the fair trade that you just mentioned there's some technicals involved supplies sure but the third thing is we're seeing a weaker dollar that means a higher dollar price for gold so if you learn to wear the dollar price of gold is going to ask yourself where's the dollar going dollars going lower it has to because Yellen has tightened in the weakness we're getting disinflation not inflation and so she needs a weaker dollar to get some inflation I think you know you mentioned it's important to practice patience especially when you're you're following gold here but from what I'm hearing from a lot of investors is they want to see that 1,900 gold again they're say you know why why is it different this time why can't we have that continuous rally here well you had a very clear conversation with Jim Rogers you know Jim very well probably the greatest commodities trader of all time and he said to me he said nothing goes to the moon or some but we both expect to see it at five or ten thousand dollars now so I stick to that gold is going to ten thousand dollars an ounce maybe not tomorrow maybe not for a couple of years but there that's the fundamental price of gold as money but what Jim said to me he said nothing goes to that level without a 50% retracement so when he saw gold go to 1900 he thought that was a little bubbly but I started buying gold at 700 I've friends who started buying it 200 so good for them I started buying 700 I kind of dropped out around 1375 see back in 2011 that spike from 1800 to 1900 happened very fast it looked bubbly at the time but what he says everything we traces 50% before it resumes its path upwards so using 200 as a base 1900 is a spike 50% retracement we'll put around about 1050 which you did hit in November 2015 so it looks like it's performed that retracement now it's on this way back up again the question is what are the catalysts okay could one of the catalysts be Bitcoin is it stealing gold sundar I don't think so I mean Bitcoin is a very small market cap compared to gold it's me it's a little sandbox you know people can play in their Bitcoin sandbox if they want I don't really think it as much impact or go wrong where the other one looks like a bubble by the way you know I've been on Wall Street a long time there's certain you know tricks of the trade but basically frauds of various kind so there's pain in the tape whosh trading Ponzi's you know you know Rams pump-and-dump there all kinds of schemes people do they kind of get things up and dump it on the suckers I'm saying all of them in Bitcoin all of them at once some of there's good forensic evidence that there are people doing wash tales like you and I could sell Bitcoin back and forth a 4000 4140 240 or 300 there's no profit loss because we're selling it back and forth to each other but we can paint the tape upwards the suckers don't know they're getting sucked in so gold stole the ultimate safe haven for gym records yes it is thank you so much for your thoughts today president Trump threatens to totally destroy North Korea another hurricane lashes out a second monster earthquake jolts Mexico and the Fed is unwinding its massive balance sheet does this sound like the coming of the apocalypse to you Jim Rogers no no no unless mr.
Trump does something foolish I mean the Chinese have told mr. Trump that if he starts a war they'll have to defend North Korea but they told North Korea that if you start a war we will not defend you so there's nobody who's gonna go to war and the South Koreans have told Trump the same thing they will not get involved in a war so if there's gonna be a war it has to come from mr.
Trump otherwise there's not gonna be a war I'm not worried about a war yes know for sure it's just this past week with everything happening it has seen too many people like it was the end of the world and last time we spoke Jim you know we were talking how you feel the next bear market will be the worst in our lifetime so you know how can investors cushion the blow here how can we prepare for it well first of all Daniel one way you know that last week was not the end of the world because markets are making all-time highs markets do not make all-time highs when the world is coming to an end I assure you well the way to protect yourself is to invest in what you know I mean don't invest in what I say maybe and listen to Daniela but the only people who survive when things go wrong with the people who are investing in what they know they know what they invested in and why and they know what to do well you mentioned that yes indeed markets are making all-time high so obviously investors are not concerned here and they're not turning to gold I'm not either I own gold but I'm not turning to gold either another interesting point you made is when this crash comes you don't necessarily want a millennial around you what did you mean by that Jim well Daniel I've been I know you are a millennial open I wouldn't mind having you around but otherwise most Millennials I've been around a long time I know that when things go bad 26 year olds just don't have any experience I didn't have any experience when I was 26 one point when I was 26 I thought I was the smartest guy in the whole world and I was five months later I lost everything I didn't know what was going on I didn't know about enough about the world or myself so I've seen I've seen all this before young guys young women make fortunes in times like this but when things start going bad they don't know what to do I didn't and most others didn't either talking about something Millennials love Bitcoin Jim I have never seen so many people loving or loving to hate something so much some guests come on telling me they're looking for ten fifty thousand dollar Bitcoin while others tell me it's the biggest bubble where does Jim Rogers stand well I'm not sure you should ask me Danielle because I I never bought one if I were smart I would have bought them you know nine years ago seven years ago five years ago five months ago so I I don't know I I if I just showed you charts of what's going on and described without telling you which country which time periods other you would say oh that looks like a bubble sounds like a bubble it does but don't ask me cuz I missed the whole thing getting back to gold Jim I think a lot of investors are so frustrated that it's not moving higher here they were rejoicing when it finally you know pushed through 1300 earlier this month to only come back down what do you say to these investors just keep waiting keep hoping well that's what I'm doing daniella as you know go long time ago many times and I own a lot of gold but I have not bought any serious gold since 2010 I guess but I haven't sold any and if and when go goes down a lot I plan to buy a whole lot more could also be that people just expect too much from gold Danielle oh yes watch KidCo and you'll see I'm telling you when all the people on kidco's say to you I'm never gonna buy gold again as long as I live and they throw it out to wind and then when they dump their gold that's when to be the time to buy everybody's still bullish there's still a lot of Mystics Danielle you know everybody still loves gold including me but I'm not buying not for yet alright Jim Rogers thank you so much for joining us we'll speak to you soon my pleasure my pleasure Daniella anytime bye bye and thank you for watching we'll see you tomorrow you an outspoken trends analyst and expert Jay rolled Celente says investors can no longer ignore the biggest trend out there Bitcoin but is it headed to 10,000 50,000 as some are suggested or is it the biggest bubble ever Gerald good to see you again thanks so much for joining us thank you so obviously we're becoming more and more of a digital society here as you point out so does that mean it's inevitable our currency is also heading that way is Bitcoin the currency of the future it's it's all the crypto currencies maybe Bitcoin or whatever else would be all the other ones coming on you see what's going on Danielle is that people have lost faith in the fiat currencies you had Jamie Dimon of course you know from JPMorgan Chase calling Bitcoin one of the biggest frauds well you know how about those six banks that were major banks that were convicted of fraud so I guess frauds know a fraud but it's not that at all what it is is that they're afraid that Bitcoin is going to take away their business and they're trying to kill it right there's no two questions in two ways about it it was very important to look at is what's going on in China China has just put on restrictions so by the end of this month it's going to be very difficult for people to deal with Bitcoin why because the yuan has been growing very rapidly and when the yuan was declining over a year ago very rapidly it was the Chinese that drove up the price of Bitcoin because they're DEA you on was being devalued here's the point that I'm making you look at Chinese exports they're way down this fear the S&P just downgraded their credit rating last week you're gonna see a devaluation of the yuan so they could they could increase exports and now the people won't have Bitcoin to go into so on a whole nother level where are they going to go they may go into gold and on the broader level it's the same thing in every nation they're all going so many you're going cashless as India did right and so what people have lost their there's no in god we trust' to hold up anymore there's nothing to attach yourself to and people realize the Fiat money scam so we see Bitcoin having a long future other cryptocurrency I'm assuming you did well with Bitcoin that you got in at a good level I never bought it though I don't think that you've had such success with Bitcoin no no I don't own any of it all right you know you know again I'm a trend forecaster I I don't give financial advice there's the downside to it too you know I have investment money I invest in different things I rather invest in a tangible so I invest in gold right and and on that topic Gerald you know many would argue that Bitcoin has stolen a lot of thunder from gold and that's why we're not seeing gold rallying more here it's very true again you know people are in sophisticates very easy to buy Bitcoin and again it's a digital world you mean go to China I mean it's your smartphone app man and you're paying for everything so that's very simple like that but as I mentioned now with governments and that's the biggest down the the biggest downside of crypto currencies governments could change it like that just like they did in China so where are people going to put their money as their currency is being devalued and it goes back to the gold standard and and that's why we believe that while Bitcoin and crypto currencies are going to have a place in the future as we see it still the bottom line is gold is the tangible that nothing replaces at this time what do you think in terms of forecasts for Bitcoin you know I've never seen anything polarize investors so much so you know some either love it or either love to hate it some are calling for $40,000 Bitcoin while others are expecting it to fizzle away saying it's the biggest bubble ever so where does Gerald stand on the spectrum we don't believe it's going to go we don't know the price but the price shot up too quickly as we see it you know again it people forget it really grew when the yuan was declining and now it's only about 15 percent of Chinese and it's very important to the banksters are going to continue to talk it down because it makes banking obsolete and the banksters obsolete so they're going to do everything they can to stop it and when you and again you listen to the words of Jamie Dimon and he brags that it's central banks that give fiat currencies that excuse me that give Yankee fiat currencies their standard central banks a bunch of private banks you know what what current with that what currency is that so there's going to continue to be a fight between the banksters and by the way what Bitcoin also represents is the populist movements that are springing up throughout the world people don't want to be attached to crooked governments and central banks all right let's rock with your forecast for gold now no you're obviously a big advocate of the yellow metal where's it headed for you right now well again it's our same forecast Danijela we've been saying now for about two years gold has to break strongly above 1,400 for it to gain more strength and when it does and I'm talking 1460 1480 1450 1470 we see it's skyrocketing to 2000 but it has to break above that point and again of course there's now there's concern about rising interest rates but interest rates really aren't rising that much when you put in for inflation over the last 10 years and how few times they raised interest rates it's still near zero when you really put it into it so it's not going to have that much an effect on it and again it also weighs on the dollar and the dollar again is is losing strength what is it down about 7% this year and by the way the u wands up over 6% so just to show you what's going on so we don't see strength in the dollar and so we see a positive future for gold last question you say positive future for gold where your hopes dashed oh because you know we saw gold finally make it through 1300 marked only come back down last week so what's the hope they're looking for 1400 now well again you know it's going to take time and and by the way also important but we don't believe when there's a geopolitical crisis and people jump into it that that's sustainable and unless of course it's a world war you know and then you know if you kiss your gold goodbye anyway but so again short-term we're in the range that we are now and when panic breaks out again because of the bubbles that are going to burst whether it's in China with their debt to GDP ratio at 300 or the central bank's trying to figure out how to unwind this 16 trillion dollars worth of debt just insuk central banks that they have to unwind you're going to start seeing a lot of problems arise so when those kind of problems start really sparking up again that's when we see gold moving up right now we see it in the range that it is I always appreciate the enthusiasm thank you so much for joining us Thank You Daniela and thanks for watching this edition of Caicos gold report we'll be back tomorrow thanks for watching
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