저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 중국이 미국을 제치고 세계 최대 경제대국이 될 것이며, 미국은 현 상태로는 이를 따라잡지 못한다는 취지의 장기 전망. 중국의 부상 근거: 대규모 인프라 투자(도로·다리·공항·고속열차), 공산당 체제의 신속한 의사결정, 교육·STEM 인재 양성, AI·자율주행 집중 투자, 자국 기업 보호와 외국 기업(아마존·애플·페이스북·구글·트위터) 진입 장벽이 언급됨. 미국 비판: 보호무역(관세), 이민 제한으로 STEM 인재 유출, 규제 강화, 정치권의 당파 대립으로 인준 지연, 인프라 투자 부족, 학자금 대출 확대와 재정적자(2019년 약 1조 달러 전망) 등 구조적 문제 지적. 트럼프 행정부의 중국 견제 방향은 일부 긍정 평가. 군사력 비교: 중국 GDP가 미국과 맞먹어도 군사력 동급까지는 시간이 더 걸린다는 주장. 중국 국방비는 미국의 약 1/3 수준, 대략 2030년경 현대식 장비 확보 전망, 미군 대비 경제 규모 1.5~2배 필요. 대만·남중국해에서는 지역적 우위 가능성 언급. 핵전력: 중국 ICBM은 지하 터널에 은닉되어 있고 발사 준비 상태가 아니며, 발사대 수는 2011년 이후 큰 변화 없이 안정적이라는 국방부 보고 인용. 해군·공군: 중국 해군은 300여 척 이상의 수상전투함 보유, 해병대는 2020년까지 7개 여단·3만 명 이상으로 확대 전망. 잠수함은 2020년경 69~78척 규모 예상. 공군은 지역 최대이며 5세대 전투기(J-20, FC-31) 개발 중. 중장기 전략: 일대일로(BRI)로 경제 연계 및 영향력 확대, 중국제조 2025(10대 전략산업), 13차 5개년 계획의 AI 등 기술 프로젝트, 2030년 AI 혁신센터 목표, 2050년 과학기술 강국 목표 제시. 투자 관련 직접 종목 언급은 없음. 장기 거시 전망에 한정.
다듬은 글
China will surpass us to be world's largest economy it's time for us to shift gears even the most casual visitor to China cannot help but see a nation leaping into the future thousands of new buildings roads and bridges dozens of new airports and several maglev high-speed trains all of it reflects strategic infrastructure investment a few years ago the nation produced copycat technology products but nowadays producing unique innovative products that its urban population purchases via smartphones the Communist Party governing structure means that strategic decision-making can be followed by quick execution the 26.4 mile wing Dow high Wan bridge the longest in the world was built in just four years president Zhou has further strengthened the national government by consolidating power reducing corruption and investing strategically in education infrastructure and relationships with developing countries Chinese universities produce millions of stem graduates and president zai has targeted artificial intelligence and self-driving vehicles for major investment China protects and nurtures its homegrown companies and puts up roadblocks to foreign competitors such as Amazon Apple Facebook Google and Twitter now JD dot-com has called the Amazon of China with fleets of drones delivering products Apple makes products in China but is slowly being eclipsed by other brands like wha-why wahat the Facebook and Twitter of China is bolstered by the government but also censored similarly bayless monopoly as the number-one Chinese search engine is due to the government no one debates whether China will surpass the u.s.
to be the world s largest economy the only question is when it will happen China s assent is factual the nation s system stem from its priorities the biggest one being the harmony of the group rather than the rights of the individual we cherish our individual rights our freedom of expression our privacy and choice and voting religion and spouse we also unlike China value clean air and water and while we claim to believe in free markets and entrepreneurship China invests in and protects companies and bija carriers our strategy worked in the 1900s while China was a poor isolationist agrarian giant but China has changed becoming the world s manufacturer over the course of the 20th century currently it s making another shift to become a first world can't do innovation economy it has moved from isolationism to expanding its global influence and its defensive military is taking over and expanding man-made islands in the South China Sea to develop offensive capabilities we have changed as well instead of leading by principled and soft power we ve embraced isolationism we have unilaterally imposed tariffs on our trading partners we are rooting out the immigrants who get our stem degrees while our defense industry starves for new hires to ensure our military technology lead our regulators increasingly questions successful tech companies and our presidents barely murmur a complaint when other nations create new taxes and absurd legal arguments to confiscate these companies earnings overseas our politicians continue to put their party's interests above those of the nation Senate Democrats have insisted on roll call votes to delay qualified administration nominees 119 times under President Trump a procedure used by both parties a total of 140 times during the four prior president's four terms our Supreme Court nominees used to get near unanimous votes based on legal competence but now senators on both sides of the aisle withhold their approval out of partisan prejudice alone only one group No Labels stands out from the crowd in this respect it has gathered bipartisan problem solvers interested in finding workable solutions to our nation s biggest problems our government stopped investing in infrastructure but continued to promiscuously give students huge loans to study anything whether it s likely to boost their employment opportunities or not and though our economy is surging Yury also seeing widening deficits with a projected 1 trillion dollar deficit in 2019 debts that the next generation of Americans will have to pay our focus on trump s past mistakes and Russia has overwhelmed discourse we knew Trump had issues when he was campaigning and he's still one move on I give President Trump credit for trying to move the nation forward from the media frenzy about Russia to worry about the biggest issues including the threat China poses to our global leadership he has wrong to used Arabs as almost all economists recognize but he has right to focus on China with iBank Trump has helped he asked pushing every major company and industry to invest in training current and future workers with high demand skills promoting technical education with the reauthorization of the Perkins Act and advocating for a merit based immigration approach that will help us attract and retain the best talent something the media continues to ignore in short we are chasing butterflies while China is investing in its future we have switched roles accepting passivity and dysfunction while China speeds to surpass us our democracy has always been messy but we have succeeded because we shared fundamental values of freedom justice and equality yet Howard divisive paralysis is threatening our nation and our democracy the way we succeed is to put nation above party values above vengeance and strive to live up to our ideals as a nation of liberty and opportunity for all if we don t shift gears and face the problems that lay ahead I am Not sure our children will forgive us China is still 10 to 20 years from matching US economy and 20 to 40 years from matching US military China is transitioning from equipment that was decades out-of-date to small numbers of competitive military equipment as has been shown in the recent trade conflicts China s economy is still weaker than the USA the u.s.
still has a larger economy other than on purchasing power parity China s economy is more dependent on trade and is dependent on vital computer and other technology from the USA China has greater foreign oil dependency and the USA it would likely take until 2030 until China has moved to reasonably modern military equipment for all of its equipment China is spending about one third as much as the USA on defense China spends less on a percentage basis as well even if China as nominal GDP matches the u.s.
around 2030 China will still need longer to match the US military it is not just one year's military spending but the accumulated buildup of equipment and training of Armed Forces China also spends less on a percentage basis so China s economy would need to be one point five to two times larger in order to match the US military budget the collective EU economy matched or exceeded the USA for a while but that you had far less combined military China might be slightly more than the combined EU military some 10 years after matching the u.s.
GDP China even targets full science and technology leader in 2050 China is building up regional advantages where it could win conflicts over Taiwan or the South China Sea this because of the man-made island bases and because of the ability to project power close to China it is also because those two areas are where China has far more interest and the USA the USA would not put up the all-out or that what would be needed to win China s ICBM missiles are hidden in underground tunnel systems China s nuclear missiles are not prepped for launch China recognizes how vulnerable their small number of land-based missiles are the missiles are in underground facilities so that they can survive a first attack the overall number of Chinese ICBM launchers reported by DoD has remained stable since 2011 fifty to seventy-five one type has reload capability so the number of available missiles is a little higher 75 to 100 missiles that number has also remained stable for the past three years indeed other than the arrival of the DF 26 irbm force the total Chinese rocket forces estimate is identical to that of presented in the 2017 report China intends to use the belt and road initiative Bri to develop strong economic ties with other countries shape their interests to align with China S and dinner confrontation or criticism of China s approach to sensitive issues some countries participating in Bri could develop economic dependencies from over relying on Chinese capital some Bri investments could advance potential military advantages for China the plan is the region is largest Navy with more than 300 surface combatants submarines amphibious ships patrol craft and specialized types it is also an increasingly modern and flexible force one of the most significant planned structural changes in 2017 was the expansion of the plan Marine Corps the pla NMC previously consisted of two brigades approximately 10,000 personnel and was limited in geography and mission amphibious assault and defense of South China Sea outposts by 2020 the pla NMC will consist of seven brigades may have more than 30,000 personnel and will expand its mission to include expeditionary operations on foreign soil as pla NMC forces are already operating out of the playas base in Djibouti modernization of China as submarine force remains a high priority for the plan it currently operates for nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines SSBN five nuclear-powered attack submarines and 47 diesel-powered attack submarines by 2020 this force will likely grow to between 69 and 78 submarines the pla AF has the largest air force in the region and the third largest in the world it is working to become a strategic air force capable of long-range power projection the pla AF has the largest air force in the region and the third largest in the world with more than 2,700 total aircraft not including UAVs and 2,000 combat aircraft including fighters strategic bombers tactical bombers and multi mission tactical and attack aircraft the PLA AF continues to field fourth-generation aircraft now about six hundred and probably it will become a majority fourth-generation force within the next several years the PLA AF is still developing fifth-generation fighters including the j-20 and FC 31 and in late 2016 began during 24 su-35 advanced fourth-generation fighters from russia china announced a stealth bomber program in 2016 and the new platform could debut sometime around 2025 the ultimate goal of science and technology modernization is to rejuvenate China by 2050 as an S anti powerhouse for the next 30 years China s leaders have arranged its innovation driven development strategy into the following four major milestones 2020 advanced domestic competence for global innovation competition the ability to rank side by side with other innovation driven countries remains a top priority under zai Jinping these development goals Center on upgrading the industrial economy including modern agriculture clean and efficient energy and fifth generation mobile telecommunications networks building science innovation parks and attracting top-tier researchers China intends these projects to further advance China s global ranking and to strengthen defense technology development between the military and civilian sectors 2025 reduced reliance on foreign technology in October 2015 China s State Council published the made-in-china 2025 plan outlining development trajectories to establish and promote China made components create well known Chinese brands and increase the domestic and international market share intense strategic industries the plan aims to develop internationally competitive leading enterprises improved technical equipment and quality standards to international levels and create a long-term industrial supply chain and perfect mass production to achieve conquer technology breakthroughs the plan incentivizes accumulating patents increasing Chinese intellectual property and establishing engineering platforms and collaborative innovation centers for s ante the ten strategic industries are one new generation information technology to high-grade machine tooling and robotics three eras space equipment for marine engineering equipment five advanced rail transportation equipment new energy automobiles seven electric power equipment eight agricultural equipment nine new materials and ten biomedicine 2030 make milestone contributions to the global scientific community striving to take the lead on breakthroughs and important tests anti areas China s thirteenth five-year program outlines major s anti innovation projects for 2030 to benefit both the Chinese economy and its military projects include ie e 2.0 national cyber space security aircraft engines and combustion turbines quantum computing and quantum communication advanced manufacturing clean and efficient energy production green technologies and environmental solutions agriculture advances biology and health resource management in both space and ocean and deep earth exploration China s ie 2.0 project moves beyond its focus with IE 1.0 which centered solely on discovering ie to focus on the networking and intelligent ization of the entire industry chain in July 2017 China published a national ie blueprint that lays out its R&D trajectory to achieve major breakthroughs in the I field and become the world s primary ie Innovation Centre by 2030 2050 LED and dominate as the s ante powerhouse China s long term objective remains to become the global leader an innovative scientific development
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