저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 미국 달러의 장기적 몰락을 경고하며 달러 기축통화 지위가 점차 약화될 것이라고 주장한다. 달러 전망: 미국의 부채 증가와 정부 지출 확대로 달러 미래가 점점 어두워진다고 보며, 달러는 안전하지 않지만 혼란기에는 사람들이 안전자산으로 찾기 때문에 자신도 달러를 보유 중이라고 말한다. 국제 흐름: 많은 나라가 미국 부채 문제로 달러 자산을 줄이고 있고 중국·러시아 등은 금 보유를 늘리고 있다. 제재 확대로 각국이 달러를 피하려 한다고 주장하며, 위안화가 달러를 대체하겠지만 가까운 시일은 아니라고 본다(1년~100년 사이 어느 시점). 역사적 관점: 기축통화는 과거에도 교체되어 왔고 파운드 역시 같은 과정을 겪었다며, 이것은 재앙이 아니라 역사의 자연스러운 흐름이라고 말한다. 시장 상황(영상 속 외신 기사 인용): 달러는 경제지표 부진과 무역 긴장 완화 속에 약세를 보였으나, 미국 지표 호조와 금리 상승으로 반등했다. 달러지수는 주간 소폭 하락했다. 달러 강세 종료 요인: 중간선거 이후 불확실성, 연준의 긴축 종료 가능성, 유로존 정치 불안 완화 시 유로 반등이 달러 약세로 이어질 수 있다는 분석이 소개된다. 주식·기타 자산: 영상 내에서 개별 종목이나 비트코인, 금 등에 대한 구체적 가격 목표는 제시되지 않았다. 아시아 증시는 반등했고 중국 증시는 약세였다. 리스크: 미국 부채 누적, 국제 제재에 따른 달러 신뢰 약화, 금리 및 정치 변수. 출연자 전망 요약: 달러는 장기적으로 기축통화 지위를 잃을 것이며 중국 위안화가 장기적 대안이 될 수 있다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Jim Rogers the fate of the US dollar is getting worse and worse according to investment guru Jim Rogers the US has some major economic turmoil ahead including the fate of the dollar according to investment guru Jim Rogers the United States has some major economic turmoil up ahead including the fate of the dollar the nation s ballooning debt will only help worsen the dollar s future and Rogers says it s only going to get worse and worse Rogers admits that he still owns a lot of US dollars but not because it s a sound currency while speaking with RT on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok he said the dollar is going to crash and burn so you would say why do you want at US currency yet then I own it because more turmoil is coming people look for a safe haven in turmoil so they will go to the dollar it does not safe but they think it is said Rogers but many nations are divesting from the United States because of the continuing debt problem which will eventually blow up in the faces of every American as government's attempt to cope with their own debt problem by raising taxes every day people are being forced to supplement their own income with loans making this cycle one that is exceptionally precipitous global debt is staggering to the point most of it will never be repaid and as government's continue their spending sprees and the debts keep mounting the future of the economy looks bleak there is more than enough economic data out there to show there could be an economic collapse and stock market crash in 2018 Bill Gross stated in 2017 that our highly levered financial system is like a truckload of nitroglycerine on a bumpy road one wrong move and the whole thing could blow sky-high wrote the epic economist once this bubble pops it will fling the globe into a financial crisis of epic proportions never before seen and the dollar will be the most devastated when the debt double finally pops the investor explained Matta US currency is going to continue to climb higher but that s all manufactured as many countries like China Bron Russ and others are now trying to get rid of it while growing their gold reserves in the next few years the American dollar is going to lose its position as the world s reserve currency and the world s medium of exchange rogers predicted adding that the world has always moved away from dominant currencies in the past and situations changed see and of dollar monopoly but rogers also says not to worry because it has not a disaster it is simply history responding to and rebelling against authoritarian power as is human nature the other currencies all had that position at one time or another but then went to excess and are not that sound anymore they lost their position people don t like washington is power so they are moving away and finding ways to get away from the dollar it has happened throughout history it happened to the pound sterling do you know the rest of that story rogers said every body is now trying to get rid of the US dollar rogers said and he isn't t wrong as the US continues to pile on sanctions nations protect themselves by ditching the USS greenback this is the beginning of the end of the US dollar s global dominance and it will at some point be a hard learned lesson for big government lovers everywhere roger predicts the chinese you and will take the dollar s place but not anytime soon leaving room for that to mean any time in the next year to 100 years dollar losses extended the greenback remains heavy and for their losses look likely after the unexpected loss of MFG jobs and downward revision to the sectors employment gains in july the risk is for disappointment with the US industrial sector disappointing auto sales may weigh on headline retail sales Sweden's CPI M s prevents the Khurana from participating much in the move against the dollar the US dollar remains on the defensive after retreating yesterday its losses against most of the major and emerging market currencies are being extended today the combination of softer US inflation coupled with the less Tavish than expected ECB Bank of England lifting growth forecasts while warning that a brexit without an agreement could spur higher mortgage rates and a more aggressive rate hike by Turkey conspired to force the dollar lower a weaker than expected CPI report plays into the hands of the the central bank who are reluctant to remove the proverbial punch bowl and offer a contrast to its neighbors in Norway who are expected to hike rates next week Sweden's headline and underlying write eased by 0.2 percent the median forecast in the Bloomberg survey was for a flat report the rally in us shares yesterday and the dollars pullback are helping lift global equities today relatively cheap valuations given the recent sell-off spurred bargain hunters the MSCI asia-pacific index ended its ten-day slide yesterday with a 0.9 percent gain and is up another 1.2 percent today the 1.3 percent gain for the week is the most since late July China is not participating in the broad market moves the UN is a little weaker and descent Shores it will post its third consecutive weekly decline indeed since the middle of April the UN has risen in only three weeks China's Shanghai Composite and the Shenzhen composite were off 0.2% and 0.8 percent respectively today bringing in the weekly loss to 0.75 percent and 2.1 percent China reported sequentially better retail sales and industrial production in August retail sales rose 9.0 percent year-over-year after an eight point eight percent pace in July industrial output rose six point one percent after six point zero percent in July if there was some disappointment it came from the 5.3 percent rise in fixed investment the slowest pace since before 2000 the dollar traded above should be 112 in early Asia for the first time since early August but it could not take out the high recorded then till - b1 12.10 and has come off a bit in Europe there is a $493 mln option struck a - B 112 that will expire today in North America the Australian dollar was unable to rise through yesterday's hike till two point seven two three zero dollars still the Australian dollar is threatening to advance each session this week for the first time this year there is an appoint 5bl and option at point seven to zero dollars bet will expire today however it is being challenged and support in the 0.71 $75 area may have to be tested you are a peon equities are mostly firmer and the Dow Jones stocks 600 is recovering yesterday's modest decline and is poised to close higher for the first week in three currently billed as 0.85% most sectors but healthcare and consumer staples are edging higher led by energy and consumer discretionary bond yields are edging slightly higher in Europe but Italy's Bank indexes steady to firmer and set to finish the week up over 2% to extend last week's nearly 6% advance the substance of Draghi's comments did not boost investors information set however his tone remained more constructive and largely neutralized the downward revision to the staff forecasts for growth this year and next he argued that wage growth and the improvement in the labor market will offset the headwinds from abroad the euro has also arisen every session this week for the first time since last September the 1.3 percent gain this week has brought it toward last month's high the one point one seven eight zero dollars area is the 38.2% retracement of this year's euro decline and it has not traded above one dollar and 18 cents since the mid-june an ECB meeting the turkish lira rallied in response to yesterday surprising 625 Bibi rate in the one week our EP hung rate to 24% yesterday it has little change today as the positive impact of a smaller current account deficit is offset by Erdogan's comments which are critical of the central bank's decision and implicitly threatened to overrule it in the future the sharp depreciation of the lira is helping to produce a rapid adjustment in its external account exports are more competitive while domestic demand is compressed the current account deficit fell to one dollar and seventy-five cents bln in july from three dollars and four cents PL and in June and a peak this year nears $7 bln in January sterling had edged higher to trade at its best level since August 1st 2002 high 1.31 for five dollars near one point three one three zero dollar in late morning activity in London it is up 1.6 percent this week the most since January the heavier dollar tone in general coupled with some optimism on brexit where we think the market may be getting ahead of a self and what is helping bridge the gap with au appears to be undermining May within her party and some stronger than expected UK data that said a break below 1.30 8-0 dollars now would weaken the technical tone meanwhile the euro continues to consolidate its losses against the Sterling this is the third consecutive week that the euro has fallen against sterling which is the longest losing streak in six months in the u.s.
Hurricane Florence made landfall and has been downgraded to a category 1 storm the US data highlights include retail sales industrial / manufacturing output and the university of michigan's consumer confidence and inflation expectation survey we look for the retail sales report to confirm that the u.s.
consumption may be slowing after rising at a three point eight percent annualized base and q2 headline retail sales have averaged a monthly gain of 0.4% gained this year through July this is the same as the 2017 average economists expect a similar rise in August which would bring the three month average below the q2 average of 0.6% softer auto sales may dampen the headline but a 0.4 percent increase in the components that are used for GDP would bring that three month average below 0.3% the US industrial sector is a source of strength output is expected to have risen by 0.3 percent after a soft 0.1 percent rise in July Manufacturing is forecast to match July's 0.3% increase the risk is on the downside recall that the August employment data showed the first decline in manufacturing jobs since July 2017 and the July manufacturing job growth was halved in the revision the market will look closely at those sectors like metal fabrication to try to tease out some of the impact of the tariffs the preliminary university of michigan's consumer confidence reading for septum murmee draw some attention but what we will focus on is the long term inflation expectations in August the 2.6 percent pace expected matches the highs over the past two and a half years an increase above would underpin the US interest rates Canada's economic calendar is sparse today next week at reports August CPI and July retail sales the US dollar is consolidating this week's percent losses against its Canadian counterpart and is straddling the CAD 1.30 area short-term participants will likely go in the direction of the break of the cad 1.20 980 - 1.3 thousand 20 range dollar bounces on solid US data higher yields the dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Friday rebounding from a near 1/2 1/2 month low as upbeat US economic data and higher Treasury yields rekindled some investor appetite for the greenback the world's top reserve currency was still on track for a weekly loss as reduced trade tensions between China and the United States together with encouraging developments between Britain and the European Union on terms for Britain's exit from the economic bloc pared safe haven demand for the dollar generally today's data showed strong results which are supporting the dollar higher yields are also giving it a boost said Brian Dangerfield macro strategist at NatWest securities in Stamford Connecticut the US Commerce Department said domestic retail sales rose 0.1 percent in August the smallest gain in six months but July figures were revised higher supporting the view of a solid consumer spending in the third quarter consumer spending which accounts for 2/3 of the US economy will likely hold firm as consumer optimism improved - its strongest since March according to the University of Michigan another bright spot was a 0.4 percent increase in industrial output last month Friday's data offset inflation data this week which fell of expectations causing traders to dial back their bets that inflation is accelerating analysts said the data also lifted Treasury yields with the 10-year touching 3% for the first time in six weeks at 11:16 a.m.
and index that tracks the dollar against six major currencies was up 0.3 percent at ninety four point eight one trimming its weekly declined to zero point six percent the Euro climbed to a two-week high earlier on Friday following the disappointing US inflation data before retreating against the greenback the common currency was down 0.5 percent at one point one six three two dollars sterling was zero point four percent lower at one point three zero six seven dollars after hitting one point three one four five dollars earlier on Friday its highest level since July 31st according to reuters data brexit talks are set to intensify over the coming week with the first of three summits that EU leaders hope will settle an agreement for departing Britain within the next two months the Chinese un added to its earlier drop against the dollar in offshore trading on Friday has bloomberg reports US President Donald Trump told his aides to proceed with tariffs on about two hundred billion dollars worth of Chinese imports the offshore un was down 0.45% at six point eight seven six per dollar three reasons why the dollar rally s days may be numbered greenback vulnerable to midterms fed rhetoric and developments in Europe the US dollar is putting in impressive gains this year but some analysts are convinced the rally is about to run out of steam with midterm elections looming the Federal Reserve moving closer to the end of its tightening cycle and amid signs Europe could be moving toward a resolution of its infighting after a strong second quarter the dollar has cooled a bit against its developed world peers still the ice u.s.
dollar index DXY plus 0.43% which measures the currency against six major rivals remains up three percent for the year to date bouncing back after a 10% drop in 2017 the dollar is overcrowded and overbought and could see a correction in the fourth quarter despite two more rate hikes said Aaron hurt senior portfolio manager in the currency group at State Street Global Advisors here s a look at the three factors that could weigh on a US currency in coming months midterm fallout midterm elections in which Democrats are seen with a strong chance of taking control of the house and an outside chance of taking the Senate lumen November the dollar could be vulnerable in the run-up and the aftermath not exceed chief economist Joseph Livorno put the highest probability at 55 percent on the Republicans retaining a narrow majority in the Senate while losing control of the house adding that uncertainty as high as polls may not provide an accurate picture of the current trends a divided Congress should produce more uncertainty on trade less chance of additional fiscal stimulus and probably some political noise but without much consequences for the current economic dynamics Livorno said fed rhetoric the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates since the end of 2015 so far delivering it increases on September 26 another 25 basis point hike is expected with CMI Fed Funds futures predicting at at ninety 7.4 percent chance another increase in December is given a seventy eight point five percent probability that means the dollar could be vulnerable to a change in tone from policymakers if the Fed switches its rhetoric from accommodative to neutral the dollar could weaken said Alessio de logis portfolio manager at Oppenheimer funds when the rhetoric changed in 2005 the dollar peaked even though there were still more rate hikes to come market participants expect up to another three rate increases in 2019 but then the central bank could take its foot off the gas pedal this means the Fed s rhetoric could adjust its language as early as next year and the greenback as price doesn t reflect that yet de Lanza said good news from Europe the euro EU our USD minus 0.5 9:02 percent is the dollar s most important rival and the popularized dollar gages heavily skewed towards the shared eurozone currency the euro has been held back by various reasons including interest rate differentials given the European Central Bank said it wouldn t raise rates at least until summer 2019 but local political turmoil including unser over Italy s budget plans has weighed on the currency if Italy manages to resolve its budget issue that is passed a budget that also falls in line with EU deficit rules thereby avoiding confrontation with Brussels but euro could see a rally de Longy said and a euro rally would come at the expense of the dollar
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