저자: JohnnySake · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 ALGN·NVDA·PCLN·TSLA·ULTA·TWLO 등 월봉상 과도하게 늘어난(stretched) 고flyer 종목들이 결국 조정받을 것으로 보고 대부분 하락/숏 관점을 취한다. [이번 영상의 전체 논지] 진행자는 월봉 기준으로 장기간 상승한 고flyer 종목은 20이평선 등 평균으로 회귀할 가능성이 높다고 주장한다. 다만 월봉은 결과가 늦게 나타나므로 일봉·시간봉의 신호(인사이드바, 지지선 이탈 등)를 보고 짧게 매매한다고 설명한다. [넷플릭스(NTES 표기 혼용, 실제 종목명 미확인)] 월봉상 장기 상승 후 과도하게 늘어난 차트이며, 20이평 대비 괴리가 커 154 부근까지 조정 가능성을 언급한다. 일봉에서 지지와 20이평을 간신히 지키다 하락 후 반등한 상태이고, 과거 추세선에서 반복적으로 밀려난 점을 근거로 약세 인사이드바 확인 후 추가 하락을 본다. [ALGN(얼라인 테크놀로지)] 월봉상 7개월 연속 상승으로 과열되어 있어 결국 되돌림이 나올 것으로 본다. 최소 2개월 횡보 후 20이평 대비 과열 해소가 필요하다고 본다. 20이평 괴리와 주봉·일봉 과열을 근거로 하락 가능성을 보며, 저점 지지 확인 후 추가 상승 시에도 20이평 위 확정 종가가 나와야 한다고 조건을 붙인다. [ISRG(인튜이티브 서지컬)] 실적 발표 후 숏 포지션을 잡았고 20이평 하향 이탈 후 횡보 구간을 설정 중이다. 671~666 갭 메우기를 기대하며, 상방 시 20이평 위 확정 종가가 나와야 추가 상승을 인정한다. 절반 청산 후 반등 시 추가 숏을 고려한다. [엔비디아(NVDA)] 월봉 과열로 최소 50달러, 최대 43.90달러 부근까지 조정 가능성을 본다. 일봉 지지 후 인사이드바에서 반등 중이며, 빨간 바 고점 돌파 시 추가 상승을 고려한다. 주요 저항은 62.37, 50~55, 75 등으로 제시한다. [프라이스라인(PCLN, 부킹)] 단기 숏 포지션을 여러 번 나눠 잡고 있으며, 1,477 부근(사상 최고가)과 1,500 돌파 여부를 주목한다. 1,500 돌파 후 이중 고점 극복이 확인되어야 강세로 본다. 장기 추세선 저항에서 다시 밀린 점을 숏 근거로 든다. 소규모 포지션을 유지하며 반등 시 추가 숏을 고려한다. [테슬라(TSLA)] 신차 발표 후 상승에도 피벗을 못 넘고 하락, 일부 청산 후 재숏을 잡았다. 50일·200일선 이탈 시 추세선 부근 200달러 부근까지 하락 가능성을 본다. 200달러 부근 지지가 강해 반응을 확인하겠다고 한다. [ULTA(울타 뷰티)] ALGN과 같이 과열 차트로 보며, 실적 이후 크게 조정받을 수 있다고 본다. 180달러에서 최소 50달러, 최대 약 90달러 하락 가능성을 언급하며 200~212 부근 지지를 본다. [차터·타임워너 등 기타] 차터는 실적 후 상승 저항에 막힌 상태로 244 부근 지지 붕괴 시 234(50일선)와 갭 메우기 및 200일선 방향을 본다. 단기 반등 가능성도 있다고 언급한다. [과거 사례 회고] 스카이웍스, 3M, 코스트코, 휴마나 등 과거 숏 성공 사례를 언급하며 과열 종목 숏 전략의 근거로 제시한다. [트윌리오(TWLO)] 최근 상장(IPO) 후 과열된 종목으로 보고 피하라고 조언한다. 65달러 아래로 이탈하면 53, 48.35, 26.18 부근까지 하락 가능성을 언급한다. [리스크·조건] 월봉 기반 전략은 결과가 늦게 나타날 수 있다. 진행자는 확정 종가와 패턴 확인을 조건으로 제시하며, 소규모 분할 포지션을 권한다. 시장 전체(SPY) 약세 시 종목들이 추가로 흘러내릴 수 있다고 본다. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 과열 고flyer 종목에 대해 전반적으로 하락·숏 관점이며, 반등 시 추가 숏을 반복하는 단기 스윙 접근을 선호한다.
다듬은 글
hello traders Johnny sake calm today we're going to look at a couple of the high-flyers Nettie's is RG nvidia priceline well priceline is not too bad align technology Alta and these are just all stretched chart lays on the monthly time frame he's take a little bit longer to play out since it's the monthly like this for months up three months down for three months up two months down just stuff like that now we have four months up we'll probably get two or three months down again stretched from the 20 ma not good 20 mas at 147 I'm thinking it could pull back to 154 but we'll take it day by day and see what the daily brings us this was a nice break down today they saved it with support and the 20 ma someone came in here a little by program to get this thing back up but we've had this trend line up here every time it came back up here made a pivot right back into it pivot right back into it ah pivot and guess what time to go down we'll see we'll see what this brings I'll look for sideways bearish inside bar and then we'll see if we get more downside on this one that's Nettie's let's look at al GN I think it's a line technology this is one that I was just searching around one day for high flyers and boom here we are another high flyer we have seven months up it's bound to turn back in just like this we go up up up up up makes it top kind of comes in chops around comes down right here then starts polish patter and comes back in comes back down bullish pattern but you know I wouldn't like to seem two more months of consolidation and then pop stretch from the 20 and the weekly stretched from the 20 daily stretch from the 20 we will be coming back in and like I said today we came back to this low have some support down here so they bounced it up it is options x2 so who knows where they need to close this thing to make options worthless let's go to I srg this one though low volume tough trade we did short it on earnings and great arish pattern we closed below the 20 ma now we're setting up sideways they did pop it up a little bit I'm expecting this thing to at least go to six 71-66 fill this gap and then we'll see how it reacts after that if it continues up I want to see a close above this 20 ma with confirmation and then possibly we go up we did short this we did cover half the position if it does move up back into this area will probably add another short to it and go to not a full position but just put more on the table on this one since we covered it down in here we'll ride it back up and do it again that's what we're trying to do just capture small moves one after another by the end of the year that all adds up nvidia this is another one everyone's just like apple oh my gosh it's apple it's got to go up remember one apple hit 705 and a tank back to 350 because everyone was oh my gosh you're upgrading it they're doing this it's apple it's got to go up we were shorten this thing at seven oh two that's apple that is but this one here again stretched it stocks just can't move up for this long without coming back at least retrace and somewhat down in this area I'm thinking at least 50 bucks possibly 4390 but we'll see how it reacts on the daily chart right now we had support at this pivot and it's an inside bar never close below that pivot they bounced it up today I want to see it get above this high this can this red bark handle high and then possibly more upside my one of my max moves were 6237 that's been in there for a while then of course the even number of 50 55 and that was like my last line in the sand and then 75 but honestly who knows but when stocks gets stretched this far on the monthly it will come back but it's a monthly chart takes a little bit longer to play out daily like I said inside bar starting to play out if this thing fails you're looking to fill the gap and then fill the gap down here at 58 37 we'll wait for pattern see if this thing Falls a little bit further again just stretched it's got to come back in it's just a matter of time priceline not a high flyer but we should we did short this thing today out of the gate 10 minute chart let's see I don't have where darn it so if you look at this go back you had this gap fill in here and that's exactly where it went to today so we shorted this thing at 14 49 50 we were forty cents off the high it pulled back nicely as you can see went right up into it right there came back retraced we shorted it we covered came back in then we covered and that was it for this one that was a nice straight I love that one but again on the daily chart we came up and filled this gap let's see if we could get above this 1477 area and I think that's the all-time high yeah if we get above that then I'm looking at 1,500 once it gets to 1,500 I want this thing to prove prove to me you know other than upgrades and a bunch of crap on options x I want you to prove to me that you can continue up after you get past this double top and 1500 then I'll say okay priceline's a pretty strong stock monthly chart not not too far stretch but you can see it was stretched here came back am foam and this is interesting here look at this trend line this comes back all the way 1999 comes into here never got above and confirmed and look where we're at again right back into that trend life that's another reason well we're short again on a swing trade on this we shorted this on earnings with a swing trade covered half at 14 like 0 for something like that bounced up 20 bucks we short it again and then today we should put a more shorts on on this one still a small position but you got to give this one of shocks when it comes in it will come in 50 60 70 bucks even if you have a couple hundred shares it's a nice trade even even if they have 50 shares still an ice tray don't load the boat do what you can this one will eventually come in again that's priceline weekly chart right into the trend line right to this gap fill keep going if that upgrade was really honestly true other than someone out there you know at Goldman Sachs needing to get out calling their buddy a upgrade this thing today I need to get out so I me that's my opinion but honestly people that's what happens let me tell you that's the truth and then Tesla everyone's favorite Tesla it's gotta go up you know just like here going up on the new car release going up came right into this pivot I right to that pivot and it was lights out everyone here was bullish oh it's going up upgrade upgrade we were short Oh fell off we covered down in here came back up now this chopping around we're short again this this was a nice inside bar starting to break down I would have liked to have seen it go a little more sideways like this guy here but you know what we're below the moving average we confirmed now we're looking at getting below the 50 and the two hundred we get below that it's going right to this trend line right around 200 bucks there's a gap fill gap fill we'll see there's a lot of support in this area so we'll see how this one reacts let's look at one more alta this is another one if you're not short this one you got to get short this did I think earnings is coming up I'm not exactly sure but this is one that's due for a good slap job on earnings you know just like in here earnings and then brewer I mean look at that another one that's just ridiculous right now 180 so this thing could possibly fall like 90 bucks maybe I'll say 50 at least you have a lot of support in this 200 212 area in this area but another stretched ridiculous chart that if you're not short this give it a shot because eventually it will come in ah I think that's it for now Oh charter that was another one they bought time warner everything was great yeah this is another one just keeps going nah it's not going to happen sorry this one here it goes up on earnings chopping around can't close above this high or it did it barely yeah it's right on the money I want to see confirmation a more follow-through could make it starting to fall apart not bad volume today but we had a little bit of selling so I'm thinking right here you have good support let's see here right 244 so it's this area cracks we're going right here to 50 ma which is 234 if this really goes you know I think we can fill this gap right in here and the 200 ma it comes into this area depending how it comes into this area you could probably buy a call option for a day or two or just go long carry the bounce for a day or two you probably go back and retrace but we'll see monthly chart like this one stretched god assured it weekly weeklies even stretched a little bit we have some trend lines in there a little bit but again stretch I mean look at this move a little bit of volume and now it's coming back in so we'll see if we can retrace on this inside bar then maybe pop up right now barish to stretch it's got to come in and here I'll show you a couple other ones that we played in the past and I've shown you these before on the charts skyworks we sure this thing at 112 everyone was like oh my gosh you're an idiot this thing's our strongest one in the whole universe just like in vinia look at this collapse well it's skyworks it's not a big deal well no it's just all the hype that's all it happened and then boom right right in everyone's face and it's it's just amazing everyone was bullish oh my gosh it's going to keep going why you shorten this one you're an idiot why are we short it because the stretch play on this let's look at 3m and these are going we're going to go real quick boom goes up we shorted 3 i'm up here look at that's right back in right back in costco costco why would you short that one you know what stretched this was like the max move right here and then it's stretched even more you had to short it and up into this area you had to then look boom right back in and then August man this thing had the flash crash it was lights out on that one and there's many other plays that we've done you know what let's look at humana I know we played that one too I haven't looked at this one in a while the stretch play look at this one stretched you had to short it up there what comes right back in inside bar never close this pops up now it's bearish you have a little bit micro bullish but mostly it's a bearish pattern it's a monthly chart so I think they're a buyout candidate or some crap news that's coming out technically it's strong but bullish pattern trying to break out until it gets above this inside bar breakdown breakdown red bar I want to see it confirm and continue if it doesn't we crack below these it's going to fast track right to here and then down to this double bottom again down in there put a fib on here just to see what stops stops are there let's see take this one out ah you look at 250 38 tues at 170 and then ultimately 162 8082 then 750 as well but these are a couple high fliers that we played and and they work out a lot people it's just the sometimes they take a little bit longer because it's a monthly chart but look at this look look at the man I dududududu were like oh my gosh this is ridiculous info haha I think they had a buyout candidate here too but I think we did it on this stretch we got this play here we covered then they popped it we did it again and we covered again down here so twice on this one just incredible you gotta play those they're they're awesome I think the Rileys was 12 but i think the 20 mas korea 20 amazed curling in the price this was another one stretched then it came back in now it's getting a little bit more stretched it's just got to come back and eventually in touch the 20 ma all right that's enough people I'm a little bit worked up going through charge tonight trying to find a couple more plays Oh twilio to stay away from this one it's an IPO and if they're sending it up on hype and then 65 bucks even number look at this thing starting to break down will probably fill this gap down in here but all you people are trying to play this thing maybe fill the gap around 53 look around 4835 2618 and then ultimately down in this area if it gets down this area maybe I don't even know what these guys do so all I know is this thing again stretched you know going up on height and maybe maybe people are trying to short this thing so they're squeezing it up a little more but something happened here but I think we put a top and massive volume they got everybody in on the hype everyone's going to be left holding the bag you're going to be in this thing a year or two it'll probably head straight down and then start going up if the markets go up if the spy dumps and keeps continuing to be enough you know we weak stance you know in the next couple months or next year or so this thing will just bleed down eventually you'll get out of it but just like Tesla and allow the other ones high-flyer comes in goes up comes in and then on this one you got a lot of people stuck up in here when this one starts hitting the 64 65 area those people hopefully will cover or just sell and get their money back and say thank you very much all right people that's enough for tonight there's a couple stocks I love these stretch our plays play them all the time
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