저자: Johnny · 외국인
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결론: 영상 발언자는 고평가된 고성장 '하이플라이어' 종목들(NVDA, LMT, CHTR, ALGN, SPG, KSU, ISRG, BABA, TSLA 등)을 월봉·일봉 20이평선 이탈 기준으로 공매도해야 한다고 주장하며, S&P500(SPY) 역시 약세 구간이라 단기 급락 가능성을 경고한다. [종목별 공매도 논리] 엔비디아(NVDA): 20이평선에서 과도하게 벌어진 상태이며, 50달러 부근까지 하락 가능성을 언급했다. 일봉에서 거래량을 동반한 상승 뒤 반전 신호가 나타났다고 보고 약세 시나리오를 제시했다. 구체적 목표 가격으로는 49.30달러를 언급했다. 알라인테크놀로지(ALGN): 월봉 기준 20이평선에서 크게 이격된 상태라 공매도 대상으로 제시했다. 93달러 부근에서 숏을 잡고 5~7달러(약 6~7%) 수익을 노리는 스윙 전략을 설명했다. 차터커뮤니케이션즈(CHTR): 20이평선 대비 과열 구간이라고 보고, 234달러 부근에서 최종적으로 200달러까지 내려갈 것으로 전망했다. 록히드마틴(LMT): 전쟁 시 상승이라는 통념에 반박하며, 과열된 월봉 구조상 227달러로 하락 후 212달러, 나아가 200달러까지 밀릴 수 있다고 주장했다. 사이먼프로퍼티(SPG): 일봉 반전 후 약한 지지선 근처에 있어 추가 하락 여지가 있다고 봤다. 인튜이티브서지컬(ISRG): 월봉 과열 상태에서 공매도를 진행했고, 일부 익절하고 나머지는 보유 중이라고 밝혔다. 바바(BABA)·구글(GOOGL) 등: 20이평선 이탈 및 이중 천정 패턴을 근거로 100달러 부근 숏을 언급했다. 중국주 IPO 물량 부담도 하락 요인으로 지적했다. 테슬라(TSLA): 하락 추세선 이탈과 낮아지는 고점 패턴을 근거로 약세를 주장했다. 50일선 이탈 시 추가 하락을 예상했다. [S&P500(SPY) 전망] 단기 목표로 205 부근을 제시했고, 203 부근의 갭 메우기를 예상했다. 거래량 감소 속 하락이 나오면 급락 위험이 있으므로 리스크 관리를 강조했다. 과거 닷컴 버블·주택 버블 사례와 연준 금리정책을 들어 약세 사이클을 설명했다. [리스크 및 조건] 발언자는 반등 시 추격 매수 금지, 손절 기준으로 역사적 고점 활용, 지지선(200~205 부근 갭) 확인 필요 등을 언급했다. 시장 전체가 QE·금리 인하 등 정책에 의존하고 있어 예측이 어렵다는 점도 인정했다. [출연자 전망] 발언자는 1~3개월 내 하이플라이어 종목 및 SPY의 하락을 일관되게 전망했다.
다듬은 글
hello traders Johnny stock pookie calm today we're going to look at a couple of the high flyers these are stocks that we are short or weird looking too short and we're going to start with align technology here at stock bookie we look at the daily weekly monthly charge and we use technical analysis and that's it so looking at the monthly chart extended these stocks cannot stay away from the 20 ma for that long it is a monthly chart so it will take a little bit longer to play out but this is one you can short we are short in this one up in here around ninety three bucks and we're looking for maybe five six seven bucks out of this thing maybe six or seven percent and we get out we are swing traders we take the money and run on a line that's a great setup for a short let's go to Nvidia you're not sure this one you have to do it up here look at that extension a last line of defense was 6237 and you know when it when it plugged over 55 73 that was a great area to and then 50 bucks that this thing is just running out of control and then the funny part about this one is you started getting people well we're going to take that flick side of the fang and replace it with nvidia you know if people don't even know what to do this is a perfect run up and right now the big money selling in everyone's face they're going to distribute and then when there's no buyers at all in this thing and you get some selling lights out extension from the 20 ma 20 ma zat 3142 this one's coming at least back down to 50 bucks and then possibly lower i'm going to say 4930 and then you know i want to take it step by step on the daily chart we got to see the setup but i love this nice little pop on volume and then boom or reversing and golfing this this pop up that is a bearish signal on NVIDIA charter let's look at charter another high flyer can't be away from the 20 ma I'm thinking 234 that ultimately this thing's getting back to 200 bucks period you get extensions like this you have to short these things LMT everyone's bashing me today Oh you're LMT it's foolish if we go into war this thing's going up now you know what when it gets extended from the 20 ma these are monthly charts so they take a little longer to play out this one's going back to 227 and then it's coming right back here to 212 and I wouldn't doubt if it comes back to 200 I'm looking at the daily chart it's trying to hold on to the 382 at 250 466 let's see what the market springs it's still options X the real shark week so anything's possible it looks like the spy just got the gap window on an intraday basis right around the two 1707 area let's see if we can fill the gap on the spy at 216 I think around 43 44 right in that area but man the socks are looking weak we did get me check this out so it is around lunchtime Lackey got a nice little bounce here I don't even know what did it fine a little pivot or something down in this area all right there there you go that's why it's bouncing see if there's always reasons people installing the charts look at that so you got this loan pivot here at 250 168 look at the low is 250 155 and we're bouncing so now we're going to go into the lunchtime our bounces up 20m a hole in it but again let's go to the monthly got a little topping tail here gosh if we close down here at the end of the month great topping tail you got to retrace back into this area gotta short it just use the all-time high as a stop out let's look at there's a couple other ones i think simon property group was one it wasn't that far extended but again this one doesn't get too far extended until it comes back in again going up oh nice reversal look at the daily on Simon collapsing weekly nice follow-through but we are coming into a little bit of support down in here we'll see how it reacts on a weekly basis it sets up sideways I think this one has a little more downside coming to it as well oh man there's a couple other ones KSU is that one know now that one's not setting up Oh Intuitive Surgical that's another one monthly chart extension we are shorten this we covered half the oh I don't even know a lot of my trades are on twitter if you want to follow us on there at stock bookie on twitter we're short this one you know what i mean it is down 648 I'd love to cover this but I'm trying to be really patient with this one love this inside bar bearish pattern we're breaking below the 20 ma I think we're going to fill this gap right here and I think that's where I'll possibly cover half and a half and then I I think if the market start to dump we're going to fill this gap and possibly go right in this area and then ultimately 55 94 600 if that doesn't hold you know it's going to get interesting let me tell ya but there is a couple other ones and I'm starting to babble here Oh Dobie we're short that's another one that you know we're playing on the monthly still extended I mean that this one's just been floating I don't know why we get above the hundred oh no we are down well look at that 9958 we're shorten at the hundred even number and a little bit above Wow okay this one's coming into I want to see the google the google were short same thing monthly chart we get to the top doesn't close above here come on I mean everyone's getting into these because it's google so it goes up goes up we're shorten at the double top here you have to got a short up there on these stocks it's that simple people anything else charter recovered their desert there's a bunch of them you just have to look but you know the one example i always show is skyworks when everyone was really bullish on them and looked at this run up its extended from the 20 and then boom right back in those are charts we play all the time you just got to know when to get in these things we were short 112 on this one and everyone was like you're crazy blah blah blah blah blah and then now look what is it a $69 stock and set enough to possibly go lower but again high flyers in this market you have to go short you got all the hype you have stocks like nvidia on f5 the alibaba's they keep going up on hype and everyone's getting in all my gosh it's going back up but you got the people like especially like Baba excuse me you got a lot of people on the IPO they're stuck at 110 115 god forbid up in the 120 area I don't even know what the all well we have 9886 was the high and that was I believe the other day we have all these people stock up in here especially this big break down bar here you would think if this thing goes back up to you know ninety nine hundred bucks shall you break eat when you get the heck out because there's gonna be a ton of selling pressure up here and if you got no buyers because you have all the buyers right here getting in and if you have if you're not selling from sixty dollars to ninety-eight dollars if you're not selling up in here you deserve to get your butt kicked you know and then you're going to be holding the bag again you know when the scene comes back in because it isn't you know a dr it's a Chinese stock and anything can happen just you know and let's to end this this high-flying stock video let's go to Tesla this was the best one let's go to the daily this was this epic everyone oh my gosh it's Tesla they're building cars or its elin must this is this is the best thing ever look at this stuff you have this trend line up here this is on the charts it then you have this high pivot here's your area right here boom you're not adding right in here short and then I don't know just just give it back the problem is you have all these people up in here stuck still and it gets back all the hype it gets back and they don't sell oh my gosh holding the bag again oh geez and then some of these people are selling then it starts going back up and people start chasing again right back into this high pivots it's making lower highs this thing is weak and we've been talking about this pattern here inside bar starting to break down look at this inside bar broke down then it was like news I think maybe earnings in here then chopping around oh it's healing boss you gotta buy on the dips you know blah blah blah same thing gotta buy on the dips but here's going to be your big area this thing can close below the 50 ma and get down here it's going to be lights out for Tesla but ultimately you got to look at the spy at the end of the day that's the chart you're following and right now we're into this 20 man we've talked about this for weeks bullish pattern trying to get above little topping tail pull back if we actually fill this gap and then get below and confirm or going down I'm telling you that right now my targets are 205 and I think we're filling this gap in around 20 3 and an honestly there's another gap down in here around 200 but you go straight back down on this light volume this thing starts to sell we're going to be in trouble so make sure you protect your lungs because we're going to get a fast blowout sell-off in my opinion and then of course we're going to hit support again Federal Reserve will come in and you know do their craft like always you know in these in these real markets with QE 1 2 3 with the dollar moving down or dollar moving up oil moving downs the oil stimulus it's just becoming a joke but actually we have this trend line down in here we have that rate at this gap window and then gap fill down in this area so there's a lot of support down here so if this thing happens to start falling you're looking to possibly buy but you still have to look at the setup because we could sell off a little bit more does it move like this in the spy and now we're chopping around and we can't break out could get ugly I mean look at that from 2009 if you think if you think this is a real market holy cow think again this is just going to happen i'm going to go back a little further here's the dot-com here's the housing and then here's the money printing around the world QE 1 2 and 3 and then the oil stimulus and then oh my gosh it's going great we're never raising rates that's what happened to tooth that's what happened right here Greenspan didn't raise the rates markets kept going and then boom he did it and then it was lights out here same thing other than you know cheap money policies and the mortgage subprime mortgage crap what do you think they're doing here they're doing the same exact thing it's a cycle it's a people cycle every seven years we're long in the tooth on here because it's the free money policy forever in the chief interest rates let me tell you this thing starts to break down we're heading right back into this trend line this trend line breaks it's over we're going right to the highs of 2007 and that can happen really really really fast look at this staircase up elevator down staircase up elevator down this one this one will lose a little bit more painful but when they caught the bid and they had to come in anyways guys I love this stuff I've been training a long long time I love making videos them to me at stock bookie @ gmail.com and we'll take it from there thanks for watching everyone remember short the high-flyers god bless see you on the charts
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