저자: John · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 엔비디아 등 주요 기술주가 월봉 기준 과도하게 상승해 조정(하락)이 나올 가능성이 크다는 주장. 전반적 논지: 발표자는 주가가 짧은 기간 급등해 이동평균선에서 크게 벌어진 월봉 차트는 '고무줄'처럼 평균으로 되돌아온다고 본다. 거래량이 줄어드는 상승은 건강하지 않다고 평가한다. 엔비디아(NVDA): 주가가 약 25달러에서 60달러 부근까지 7개월 만에 급등해 85도 각도의 상승은 지속 가능하지 않다고 봄. 결국 33달러, 최대 31~23달러 구간까지 조정될 수 있다고 전망. 다만 현재 이동평균선 위에 있어 기술적으로는 강세 국면이라고 인정. 실적 발표를 앞두고 거래량이 줄어드는 점을 경계. 구글(GOOGL): 810~813달러 사이 역대 고점 돌파 여부를 확인하는 중. 813 위에서 마감하기 전까지는 더 오르지 않을 것으로 봄. 월봉상 과열되어 20개월 이동평균선까지 되돌림이 필요하다고 주장. 차터(CHTR) 등 기타 종목: 월봉 기준 과열, 거래량 감소, 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 목표 구간으로 약 200달러 등을 제시. 최대 상승 폭 언급(55~73, 62~37 등 수치는 자막 불명확). 시장 전체: SPY·QQQ·IWM·IYT 등 주요 지수 ETF가 하락 전환하면 개별 종목도 함께 무너질 것이라고 봄. 대형 상업은행들이 전체 시장에 대해 순매도(net-short) 포지션이라고 주장하며 조정이 시간문제라 강조. 당일 SPY 거래량 5,400만 주 언급. 리스크/조건: 실적 발표가 좋으면 상승 지속 가능성, 구글은 813 돌파 여부가 관건. 발표자 스스로 '시기는 불확실하니 인내가 필요하다'고 함. 출연자 전망: 단기 조정 및 중기 하락 쪽에 무게를 둔 약세 시각.
다듬은 글
hello traders John esta kabuki com they want to look at in video they have earnings after the bell but I have to show you guys this monthly stretched chart when a stock goes from 25 bucks to sixty dollars in a matter of seven months or so it's just not good stocks do not it's not healthy for stock to move up in an 85 degree angle in my opinion eventually it has to come back down into the 33 and possibly the 3123 area it just has to my opinion on this one it's the short squeeze of the century I mean even got to the point where they were saying let's take out netflix and put this one in the fang and and the fame will be complete again you know and then you start getting upgrades at all-time highs you know something's going on volumes starting to dry up on this you know we have pretty good volumes here because i think we had earnings on this month then look drying up again just like the markets it's the same thing and today let's see today today unbelievable it anyways we're above the moving average technically we're in a bullish stance but on a monthly chart once it gets stretched like this it will come back in it's just a matter of time let me give you one example and that was skyworks we shored this back in 2015 at 112 and man what one a run if you didn't if you weren't taking profits up in here you were you were insane once it reversed and started cracking and got below this inside bar it was over well then we had that flash crash in August that didn't help anything but then we bounced off came right back in a little bit of a bearish pattern and now it's just doing nothing inside bar probably going lower but we'll see we'll see I mean this is this is something we just played stretch play let me show you one more here this is realities in come same thing gets above here we did have a trend line up in this area so that was some good resistance but trying to get above and then boom we have a nice reversal let's see what happens with oh there was one more that was really good I think it was out alg and maybe yeah align technology same things starting to move up you gotta watch out and then look at this the volumes is drying up not good you gotta watch out for that once these get so stretched out from these moving averages it's like a magnet it's just going to come back down and then there was Google I mean Google L think at one point that yeah same thing see how it was stretched over here kind of come chops around retraces back up to the high comes right back into the 220 moving averages but pop-pop gets stretched right here in 110 or so every they're upgrading this thing they're doing that boom comes back in almost touches the 20 but here we are again right there till we close above that all-time high at 813 8 actually it was today oh my gosh all right so let's go back to this one until it closes above this like I think it was 8 10 8 13 or 811 area the last all-time high I don't believe this thing's going to continue up just simple as simple as that all right here here you go so where it was this one right there so 809 what is this one so we hit the high today oh this is the weak link here you go hold on old does it say wait a minute here so until we let's go back close above this one right here aight 1022 on a daily weekly monthly clothes I don't believe Google's going any higher and again look at this one no volume you have earnings volumes disappearing again everything's just floating up and they're in there sucking everybody in all the analysts are upgrading this thing oh my gosh it's going to keep going when you have moves from 673 to 810 and and now it's stretched even on the weekly the month monthly is not terrible but still is hasn't touched a monthly in a night or the 20 ma and a long time on the monthly chart needs to come back in people it really really does then let's look at one other one charter that was that that was another you know they bought Time Warner then it kept going I mean look at this thing again why this is really epic monthly chart volumes is drying up now this one's really going on nothing that tells me when this thing starts to come back in it's going to go to 34 22 next stop I you know I'm going to say around 200 but again these are just stretched planes that we play on the monthly charts you have to watch for a couple of different things I have some max moves on here one was 55 73 and then the next one was right around 6237 so it has a little more room to squeeze but wow it's got to come in this this one better have epic earnings or it's coming in and if the spy and the cue start to dump it's going to be lights out for this one and one more common people the big commercial banks are net-short in the overall markets it's just a matter of time before these things start coming in such as the spy the cues the IWM the iyt I promise you it's going to happen it's just a matter of when all right a little bit hyped up today these markets are really really just complacent and when they up from place at markets their stocks are going up going down doing whatever they got to do it's pretty crazy stuff spy today 54 million on the day come on all right I'm going to take a deep breath and everybody these are one of the plays that we like to do on the monthly time frames and a lot of times they work out just have to be really patient thanks again everybody god bless see you on the charts
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