저자: AntonioLinares · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라는 현금창출력이 개선되는 전환점에 있으며 Q1 2026 EMEA 인도량 전분기 대비 150% 증가, 베를린 61k 기록, 자동차 마진 개선, 수주잔고 2년래 최고를 근거로 제시. 로보택시·옵티머스·테라팹이 새로운 현금 창출 레버리지로 작용하며 OCF/CapEx 비율이 금리 환경을 감안하면 높다고 주장. 2~5년 내 대규모 상승(10~20배 언급)과 장기 보유를 강조.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, and welcome back to the world's best investing podcast. Tesla is now positioned to go through an inflection point, and it will just produce way, way more cash. It's going to become a gigantic cash machine. I've been telling everyone AMD was going to do the same, and now you can see that start to materialize.
Company is printing more cash. Get up for an exponential free cash flow per share explosion, and the market is starting to price that in. Tesla's going to do something very similar over the coming two to four or five years. And today, I prepared an in-depth presentation to explain everything you need to know.
I've been a Tesla shareholder since the year 2016. I got into the stock at $13 per share. So, I've seen Tesla do very well at times, correct aggressively at times in terms of the stock price, but I've stayed focused on the fundamentals for a decade now. So, probably this presentation is worth watching if you want to truly understand what's happening inside the company now, and where it's headed.
So, let's get deep into it. All right. So, basically, this company is a cash machine that has never really slowed. If you normalize first circumstances, things that changed outside of the company's control, what we have now is three levers coming in on a $16 billion cash from operations base. And this is what makes the the stock pick here quite asymmetric, in my opinion.
This is what Tesla's next five years are going to be all about. As I was telling you guys, this company is going through an inflection point, and it's now positioned to print way, way more cash. So, we have a few things happening at the same time. One, tremendously enhanced manufacturing efficiency compounded through this last rate hike cycle.
So, rates have gone from zero essentially in 2021 to around five in the past few years, and Tesla has had to work its way through that. Higher rates make cars less affordable, so it makes it harder for the business to sell cars, and ultimately do so profitably in order to produce cash. However, in Q1 2026, we have an inflection point, some numbers that confirm that this process is complete.
And then, we have some other additional information about Robotaxi, Optimus, Terafab, which these are new levers coming into the company's core creation value creation engine, which is basically just printing stuff. Tesla's a machine that's very good at manufacturing things. And as they get better at manufacturing, they deliver a higher value to price ratio to people, so more bang for their buck, and that's how they make more money.
So, these things are coming in now, and they're just going to compound enhance that core uh value creation process. Now, here this is the central aspect of the thesis, which is cash from operations operating cash flow, OCF, divided by CapEx. You can see how from Q1 2017 to Q1 2026, this metric has been cyclical.
It just goes up and down. If it goes up, it means Tesla is producing more cash per unit uh per dollar that it reinvests into the business. So, it's basically cash produced divided by cash invested. If that goes up, it means that Tesla at that point in time, tentatively, reached a new peak of efficiency.
They got better at manufacturing cars, selling them, delivering them, and making money in a way that delivers cash to the bottom line, right? So, it's cyclical because whenever Tesla reaches a new level of efficiency, they lower prices. This is what I call the Costco algorithm, which is basically being maniacally focused on delivering more value per dollar, and that takes on the form of both improving the product and the service and then lowering prices as you do that.
That is what this company does. Now, you can see that they did hit it. You can see that they hit a pretty massive peak here in in the year 2021, 2022 roughly, and then rates came in. So, structurally, this metric has been lower. However, if you normalize these peaks for the price of money, they're actually a lot higher, right?
Because the price of money here was zero, and the price of money here is infinitely higher. So, if you go from zero to 5%, that's not a 5% increase, that's an infinite increase. It's just money is way less affordable now than it was back then. What this means is that what's been happening throughout this period is Tesla has been getting way more efficient.
And this is something that I've been telling everyone for years now, right? So, this is roughly from the year 2022 to date. This is Q1 2026. And Q1 2026 is the confirmation as we'll see now. But, you know, as I was saying, rates are much higher, operating cash flow divided by CapEx actually quite sustainable, even though they've been lowering prices aggressively.
Remember that I think it was a year or two ago was being heavily criticized for lowering prices, and the market understood that at times as a sign of weakness. So, if you normalize all of that, I'm sure there's a quants here in the audience that can do it. It means these guys are a lot more powerful right now than they were three or four years ago.
Now, in Q1 2026, EMEA deliveries quarter-over-quarter went up 150%. Berlin units came in at 61k, which is a record. Auto margin X credits went from 17.9 to 9.19.2 sequentially. And the order backlog in Q1 is at a two-year high. Interestingly, Vaibhav Taneja, I hope I pronounced your name correctly, Vaibhav.
If I didn't, um let me know. Let me know. Invite me over to Tesla, and and we can discuss that. I'm kidding. But, who knows? A field trip could be nice. Anyways, he said, "10 years back, when we launched Model 3 in the US with a promise of $35,000 starting price, which adjusted for inflation translates about $48,000 today in today's dollar terms.
The starting price of Model 3 today is way less than that, while the product is way more compelling." So, see, he's talking about the value to price ratio. A lot more value for a lower price. Or whatever, in whichever way you do that, the equation just works because you do more value per dollar. And that's why customers seem to be buying this now.
So, now we have a 25 billion CapEx ramp-up coming, and this is expected to turn free cash flow negative for the year. So, as we know, free cash flow is company basically makes money revenue, then has expenses, so you take expenses away, then you take OpEx, that's free cash flow. However, if CapEx is going to go up a lot, you can just use cash from operations as a proxy of the company's underlying ability to produce cash.
So, we have these new levers that are coming on this new baseline of efficiency that Tesla has built, which is here. And you know, you could argue that, but my view is that the company's way more efficient, and then you have the CFO confirming that, talking about the value to price ratio, which is really a it's a pillar of my fundamental analysis framework.
So, what's happening over the past uh few quarters tentatively is that actually cash from operations, which is the red line, and CapEx are both going up simultaneously now. They're starting to trend up, and this sort of it it started to happen around here. I think it was a year a bit in a go, nearly 2 years.
And this last quarter in Q1 2026, you see you see Tesla investing very heavily in this new future of robo-taxi, Optimus, and Terafab, but then cash from operations is going up, too. So, again, going forward, as this CapEx cycle ramps up, I think that the proxy for free cash flow obviously free cash flow per share, too, is cash from operations.
You can do cash from operations per share if you want to do that, but the point is that I think this company's ability to print cash has improved a lot in this period. And so, this is a peak from the 2021 period. This was Tesla just coming out of what Elon Musk called production hell, which is for like a year or something, or maybe 2 years, they were very focused on enhancing manufacturing efficiency to bring the Model 3 to life.
So, a smaller car, more affordable, much more mass market. And that's what led to this ramp up in production of cash, and that's what actually sent the stock up 10x. So, my point is this is going to happen again, except now we have levers which are slightly different, and it's interesting. Because if you look at robo-taxi and Optimus, the core value driver of this thing is intelligence, and so by itself if you want to if you want to look at this business as an auto business, you can do that.
But actually, on top of the auto business, what's coming now is an intelligence platform. And then, by definition, these are just two verticals of the intelligence platform. So, you have robotaxis, which move you around. These are robots that leverage Tesla's intelligence internet to move you around, and then you have Optimus.
But there's going to be a whole lot of this. And so, these are basically two vertical instances of the AI at the edge thesis that I that I've kept talking about for years. My expectation is that these verticals are going to grow a lot, and they're going to be transformational, but I don't think these are going to be the last two verticals.
And then, by themselves, these verticals will act as platforms. So, for example, I think Optimus well, the first version of Optimus will be a generic robot, but then we will see people use the underlying intelligence and its physical capabilities to produce further vertical instances of the robot itself.
It's like the Palantir thesis. They have a digital twin platform, then they specialize in the private sector and the public sector, actually the inverse order chrono- chronologically, and then they continue building vertical instances instances on top of that. So, they they did Warp Speed for manufacturing.
That's a digital twin platform, the core one, but concentrated on the manufacturing vertical, then you have ShipOS, which is a further vertical instance of Warp Speed itself. And so, this thesis is going to be similar to the Tesla one in that it's going to be fractal. You're going to have new ver- new verticals propping up from the intelligence layer, and those verticals are going to act as platforms themselves.
And we're going to see that scale worldwide just because you can't really replicate this industrial infrastructure at the moment. So, this is a $16 billion cash from operations base and a lot of capex which other companies simply can't invest. So, at the moment, Tesla doesn't really have any competition, and that's why to me the next 2 5 years look extremely asymmetric.
Now, these things, people get impatient, right? As happened with AMD, you know how back in April 2025, sort of everyone gave up on AMD. That was because this company was I think right at the end of its capex cycle. So actually the market had the market was sitting tight since 2022. Some pessimism here and there, but nothing like what we saw in in April 2025 because the market was hoping to see the capex cycle through soon enough.
So when a company of this sort goes into a capex cycle, it tends to happen that the market sooner or later gives up because market participants are not waiting they're not willing to wait for 18 months, 24, you know, 3 years, 4 years, whatever it is. But I think that at the other side of this capex cycle, the reward is exponential again as it as it was, you know, back in the 2017 period.
The increase in market cap since then has been exponential. I mean, at least good enough for me. And so what I think is coming next is something similar, right? So from $13 per share to today's prices, I'm up quite a bit. I think this next cycle sends Tesla stock up 10, 20 here. Even more as Tesla comes to be a second kind of internet which moves around autonomy tokens.
And and that's a new horizontal platform that the rest of the economy builds on. So as you guys know, I believe that this is probably a $20 trillion company in the making at his Palantir. And that's because I think Tesla is going to be infrastructure that everyone in the economy uses to commoditize, to to extract commoditized energy and intelligence.
That's what the economy does today. It's just people doing relatively, you know, doing jobs, processing information, deciding what they do next. I think Tesla becomes the provider of that that people tap into via an API and then we just build a whole new economy on top of that. So this is a massive thesis.
I'm up quite a bit on this investment today and I'm holding. I think this is going to be a beautiful thesis over the next 5 years. So guys, thank you very much for joining me. As always, if you enjoyed this video, could you please like and subscribe and share with one friend? These videos, deep dives, and updates are for free and so the only way this grows is with your help. So, thank you very much in advance. Take care, and see you guys next time.
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