원문 보기
Welcome back to the Investors channel. What is Howard Marx seeing in the market that leads him to maintain such a significant exposure to energy, invest in companies across various sectors, and simultaneously declare short positions on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100? Because Oak 3 Capital Management's latest 13f form, corresponding to the second quarter of this year, contains movements that deserve our attention.
On one hand, we find important positions in companies related to oil, natural gas, gold and other natural resources. On the other hand, there are P options on two of the main vehicles used by investors to track the US stock market, the Spider SP500 ETF and the Invesco QQQ, which tracks the NASDAQ 100.
And this raises a fundamental question. Is Octri preparing for a market downturn, or is this a hedging strategy within a portfolio seeking opportunities in different sectors? Today we'll analyze its main positions: what it has bought, what it has sold, which companies it has reduced its holdings in, and what we can learn from these moves.
We will also explain why we should not automatically copy the investments of a professional manager without first understanding their strategy. Because identifying interesting opportunities is one thing, but assuming we know exactly what one of the world's best-known investors is trying to do is quite another .
Let's get to the analysis. Before getting into the operations, we need to understand who Howard Marx is. Marx is the co-founder of Oak. Tre Capital Management, a firm especially known for its expertise in credit, distressed debt, alternative investments, and strategies aimed at buying assets when there is an attractive risk-return relationship.
His investment philosophy places special emphasis on risk, market cycles, and the importance of not overpaying for an asset. It's not simply about looking for companies that can grow a lot. It's about assessing how much we can gain, how much we can lose, and what expectations are incorporated into the current price.
This philosophy is important for interpreting Oak's 3F form, but there is a fundamental precision. The 3F we are going to analyze corresponds to Oct Management, not necessarily to all of Howard Marx's personal investments. The firm is associated with both Mars and Bruce Car, and the statement outlines certain positions that must be communicated to the US authorities.
Furthermore, a 3CF does not show an investor's entire financial portfolio . It mainly includes certain reportable positions in securities listed in the United States. It does not offer a complete picture of the cash, all short positions, private investments, or the overall credit strategy of a firm like Oak 3.
Tre. Therefore, we should not interpret the document as if it were Howard Mars' complete balance sheet. That said, it remains a very interesting and very important source of information. The document corresponding to the second quarter of 2026 was presented in August and reflects the positions declared at the end of June.
This means we are looking at a historical snapshot of the portfolio, not necessarily what Octri holds now. And this detail is especially important when we analyze options and operations that can change rapidly. Let's start with the most striking part of the report. Octó a new position of approximately 1,35000 units of PUT options on Spider SP500 TF Trust identified by the ticket Spy.
The declared national value associated with this position is around 11,01,000. In addition, the firm increased its reported position in PT options on the Inbesco QQQ Trust by approximately 55%. The vehicle that follows the NASDAQ 100. This position reached about 885,000 units with a declared national value close to 652 million dollars.
These figures are important enough that we should stop and explain what they mean. A PT option gives its buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell an asset at a specified price within a specified time frame and under specific conditions. In general terms, buying PT options can be used to protect a portfolio against a downturn or to profit if the underlying asset falls, depending on the structure of the transaction.
Therefore, when we see P options on the SP500 and the Nasdaq 100, we can conclude that there is an exposure linked to those instruments that can benefit from certain bearish scenarios. But we must be careful here; we cannot automatically assume that Octri is betting all its capital on the stock market crashing.
Because? Because the national value of an option does not necessarily equal the money that has been paid for it. To determine the cost of the transaction, we would need information on premiums, exercise prices, maturities, and other conditions that are not sufficiently explained by the simple added value of 13f.
Furthermore, a P position can be part of a hedging strategy. Let's imagine that a firm holds a large portfolio of stocks and wants to reduce its exposure to a market downturn without selling all of its positions. One possible solution would be to buy PT options on an index. If the stock market falls, those options could offset some of the portfolio's losses.
Of course, they can also be used for speculative purposes, but the form alone does not allow us to determine with certainty what the specific intention is. What we can say is that these positions deserve attention. The reported exposure to PT options on the SP500 and the Nasdaq 100 indicates that Octri's strategy includes instruments linked to potential downward market movements.
The question is whether it's about protecting a directional bet or a combination of strategies. Without additional information, we shouldn't invent an answer. But there is an important lesson for individual investors . When a professional trader uses options, simply copying the ticker symbol is not enough .
We need to understand the instrument, the maximum risk, the maturity date, and the role it plays within the portfolio. Buying a P option without understanding these elements can lead to rapid losses, even if our overall view of the market turns out to be correct. Moving on to one of the largest individual positions in the declared portfolio, Torm with ticket TRMD.
Torm is a company dedicated to the maritime transport of refined petroleum products. This means that their business is related to the movement of fuel and other petroleum products between different markets. It's not exactly the same as investing in an oil company. An oil company obtains revenue primarily from activities related to the production, processing, or marketing of hydrocarbons.
Thorm, on the other hand, operates in the petroleum product shipping business, and that means its results depend on different factors. These include transport rates, ship availability, global fuel demand, the distance of trade routes, and the balance between supply and demand for maritime capacity. In the second quarter report, Octri held approximately 20.3 million shares of THOR.
with a declared value close to 524,000,000. However, it reduced its position by around 14.7% compared to the previous quarter. This is interesting because the firm retains a significant stake, but reduces its exposure. What could it mean? I will be able to respond to a risk management decision, a reduction in concentration, or a less attractive valuation following previous moves.
But we don't have enough information to attribute a specific motivation. The important thing is to understand the business. Shipping companies can generate high profits when rates are favorable, but they are also sensitive to cycles. A period of very high tariffs may be followed by another in which available capacity increases and revenue per vessel decreases.
That's why we shouldn't automatically extrapolate the results of an exceptional year to the future. To analyze DORM, I would monitor three variables: transport rates and their evolution, the balance between ship supply and global demand, and the price we are paying in relation to the normalized profits the company can generate over a full cycle.
Because a cyclical company can seem extraordinarily cheap when its profits are near peaks and can also seem expensive when it is going through a temporarily weak phase. OTRI's opposition demonstrates that Thor remains relevant within its declared portfolio, although the reduction in shares warrants monitoring.
Another of the big positions is Expander, whose ticker is s.exe. This company is involved in natural gas production in the United States, and natural gas is a resource that can play an important role in electricity generation, industrial activity, and energy supply. Furthermore, the development of data centers and the expansion of artificial intelligence are increasing attention to the energy needs of the economy.
Data centers need electricity to maintain their operations and power computing systems. However, we should not assume that all the new electricity demand will automatically translate into greater profits for any gas producer. The outcome depends on factors such as prices, contracts, production costs, infrastructure, and available capacity.
In the second quarter, Octri reported approximately 5.24 million shares of expand energy valued at about $478 million . The position remained virtually unchanged compared to the previous quarter. This is relevant because it contrasts with the reduction observed in Tor. Instead of recalling all his energetic positions, Octervó this exhibition.
However, holding a position does not necessarily mean that the firm expects an immediate rise in the stock price. It may reflect a valuation considered reasonable, a long-term thesis, or simply a decision to maintain the portfolio allocation. To analyze Expant Energy, we must study the cost of production, cash generation, debt, the evolution of gas prices, and investment needs.
It is also important to understand that natural gas can go through very pronounced price cycles . When supply increases too much, prices can fall sharply. When demand grows or there are restructurings or supply restrictions, the situation can change. Therefore, the investment thesis must be based on realistic scenarios, not solely on the idea that artificial intelligence will increasingly require more electricity.
The fundamental question is whether Expand Energy can generate enough cash under different price scenarios to justify its current valuation. One of the most striking reductions of the quarter appears in Garret Motion with ticker GTX. The company develops technologies related to turbocharging and other solutions to improve the performance and efficiency of propulsion systems.
Its activity is related to the automotive industry and other markets where energy efficiency and engine performance are very important. In the second quarter, Tri held approximately 7.59 million shares valued at about $275 million. But there is one particularly relevant fact. It reduced its number of shares by approximately 48%.
We are facing a considerable cut here. However, such a large reduction does not automatically prove that the company has fundamental problems. I will be able to respond to a risk management decision , the evolution of the valuation, or a capital allocation area strategy . To better understand the business, we must remember that automotive component suppliers depend on customer demand, vehicle production, technological competition, and the evolution of propulsion systems.
The transition to electric vehicles also changes the competitive environment. Some traditional technologies may lose prominence in certain segments, while others remain relevant for years. Therefore, the analysis should focus on Garret Motion's ability to generate cash, maintain margins, compete technologically, and adapt to industry changes.
The October cut deserves attention, but it shouldn't automatically become a sell signal for all shareholders. We need to better understand the fundamentals and valuation. Another notable position is Anglo Gold Ashanti, identified by the ticker AAU. This company operates in the mining industry and is especially linked to gold production.
Gold often attracts investor attention during periods of economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, or concerns about inflation. However, the price of gold does not always rise when risks increase. Real interest rates, the strength of the dollar, central bank purchases, and expectations about the economy also play a role.
For a mining company, moreover, the price of the metal is only one part of the equation. Extraction costs , foundation quality, necessary investments, taxes, and operational stability also matter. In the second quarter, Octó acquired approximately 3.18 million shares in Anglog Tashanti valued at about $257 million.
The position decreased slightly in number of shares. This indicates that the firm maintained a significant exposure to the company, although it made a relatively small adjustment for a particular investor. The main lesson is that buying a mining company is not the same as buying gold directly. A mining operation incorporates operational, financial, and execution risks that do not exist in the same way when the metal is owned.
If gold prices rise, a mining company can benefit from increased margins, provided its costs do not increase at the same rate. But if energy, labor or extraction costs increase, some of that benefit may disappear. Therefore, in addition to analyzing the prospects for gold, we must study the costs per ounce, the balance sheet, capital investments, and cash generation.
Angl Gold Tashanti's position fits with a portfolio that includes exposure to natural resources, but it does not allow us to say that Octri is necessarily anticipating a monetary or financial crisis. One of the most important new positions of the quarter is Indivior with ticker INDV. The company operates in the pharmaceutical sector and is especially involved in treatments for substance use disorders.
It is a sector that may present different characteristics than other health areas. The demand for certain treatments responds to specific medical needs and does not depend exclusively on the discretionary spending of consumers. But there are also commercial, legal and competition-related regulatory risks.
In the second quarter, Octó held approximately 6.13 million shares of Individor valued at about 251 million. The position appears to be new compared to the previous quarter. This makes it an operation that deserves to be monitored. However, we must remember that a new opposition on February 13th tells us exactly when the firm's economic exposure began, nor what internal analysis justified the decision.
Nor does it allow us to know with certainty the average purchase price. To study, we must review the evolution of their products, their sales, margins, competition, and legal and regulatory risks. In pharmaceutical companies, changes in marketing conditions, decisions by health authorities, and the emergence of alternatives can significantly alter the outlook.
Therefore, a new institutional position can be a clue to investigate, but it does not replace business analysis. Another notable transaction is Telepone in Data Systems with ticker TDS. The company participates in the telecommunications sector and maintains interests related to connectivity services.
This is an industry where infrastructure, capital investment, and the ability to offer competitive services are essential factors. Telecommunications can provide recurring revenue, but they also require significant investments to maintain and expand networks. Furthermore, competition can put downward pressure on prices and hinder margin growth.
In the second quarter, OT reported approximately 5.28 million shares of TDS after increasing its holdings by about 23%. This move contrasts with the cuts in other companies, but we shouldn't assume that increasing a position means the stock will rise anytime soon. To evaluate a telecommunications company, we must analyze its debt, investment needs, customer growth, margins, and ability to generate free cash flow.
We must also study the corporate structure and the shareholdings that may influence shareholder value. The sector may be interesting for certain investment profiles, but the debt and capital intensity mean that the valuation must be done carefully. Now we come to the company that connects two of the most important topics in today's markets: digital assets and IT infrastructure.
Corseci Antifix with ticker CSE has been associated with Bitcoin mining and with infrastructures that can also be used for high-intensity computing loads. This type of company has sparked interest because data centers need electrical capacity, cooling, facilities, and adequate connections. But we must not confuse a potential opportunity with guaranteed profits.
Building and operating data centers requires significant capital, access to electricity, contracts, equipment, and demanding operational execution. Furthermore, the economics of Bitcoin mining depend on factors such as the price of the cryptocurrency, the mining difficulty, and energy costs. In the second quarter, it reduced its reported position in core scientifics stock by approximately 47%.
At the same time, it increased its declared position in call options on the same company. Call options can provide exposure to a rise in the underlying asset, but their behavior depends on the strike price, expiration, and other factors. The combination of reduced shares and augmented call options is especially interesting because it demonstrates that we cannot always interpret an isolated trade as a completely bullish or bearish bet.
It could be a strategy with different components, but we don't have enough information to know its complete structure. To analyze Corse Antiffix, we must monitor contracts related to data centers, electrical capacity, capital investment, debt, and the profitability of its activities. It is also important to study the risks associated with Bitcoin's volatility.
The opportunity exists if the company manages to transform its infrastructure into sustainable cash flows, but execution and financing will be crucial. In addition to the operations we just analyzed, OTRI made other relevant moves. Among the positions he completely abandoned are Petrobras, Nokia, Civil and Associate Properties and Credo Technology.
Petrobras' exit is especially interesting because the firm retains other energy-related holdings . This demonstrates that investing in a sector does not necessarily mean owning all the companies that operate within it. Petrobras is an integrated oil company, while Expan Energy is related to natural gas and Torm to the maritime transport of petroleum products.
Although all three have connections to energy, their sources of income and risks are quite different. The decision to leave one company and keep others may be due to differences in valuation, operating prospects, financial structure, or risk. But again, we shouldn't attribute a specific motivation without evidence.
Octri also opened positions in companies such as Ca Limited, VIA SAT and Make My Trip. These companies offer exposure to different activities. Se Limited is involved in e-commerce, digital services, and electronic entertainment in Southeast Asia. Viasat operates in the field of satellite communications.
Make My Trip is related to travel and booking services, especially in the Indian market. The presence of these companies shows that the portfolio is not limited to energy and bearish instruments. It also includes companies linked to technology, communications and consumer goods. The most prudent interpretation is that Outri maintains a diversified portfolio of reportable positions and makes adjustments according to its investment criteria.
We are not seeing a completely defensive portfolio or a widespread sell-off of stocks. We are seeing a combination of held, increased, reduced and closed positions along with derivative instruments. And that is precisely what makes studying the whole important. And here we arrive at the question that many are surely asking themselves.
After observing these movements, we should copy the RRI positions. My answer is that we shouldn't do it automatically. There are several reasons. The first is the information delay. Form 3F corresponds to the second quarter and reflects positions at the end of June, but was submitted in August. By the time an individual investor discovers a trade, the market may have already changed significantly.
The second reason is that we are unaware of the entire strategy; we don't necessarily see the cash, all the short positions, the private investments, or the firm's full exposure. We don't always know the price of admission either. the original intention or the exact conditions of the derivatives transactions.
The third reason is that each investor's situation is different. Octistra capital has objectives, resources, time horizons, and risk management capabilities that are different from how a person invests their savings. An options strategy that may make sense within an institutional portfolio may be unsuitable for an individual investor.
The fourth reason is that a good investment depends on the price. It is not enough for a company to be interesting. We need to calculate how much we are paying, what benefits we expect, and what risks we are taking. An excellent company can be a mediocre investment if we buy at too high a valuation.
And a company going through difficulties can offer an opportunity if the price reflects an excessively pessimistic scenario. Therefore, the best use of a 3F is to generate ideas. If we see a significant position in THORM, we study maritime transport. If we see a new position in Indivior, we investigate the pharmaceutical business.
If we look at pod options on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, we analyze market exposure and potential hedging strategies, but then we do our own work. We reviewed the financial results, the balance sheet, and cash generation. the tickers by the valuation formulas. Only then can we decide if a stock fits into our portfolio.
In conclusion, let's summarize the most important moves by Octri Capital Management during the second quarter of this year. First, it appears in a position on the SP500 and the NASDAQ 100. A fact that deserves attention, although it does not by itself prove that Howard Marx is predicting a stock market dip.
Second, Thorm continues to be one of the top positions, although OT reduced its exposure. Third, Expand Energy remained virtually stable, maintaining a significant position related to natural gas. Fourth, Garret Motion experienced a very significant cut. Fifth, Anglog Gold Tahy maintained a significant exposure to gold with a small reduction in shares.
Sixth, Indivor appears as a significant new position, and seventh, the portfolio includes interesting moves in telecommunications, data centers, and other activities. What conclusion do I draw from all of this? that we should not reduce the OTE strategy to a single idea. It is not enough to say that Howard Marx is betting against the market because that would be too simplistic an interpretation.
What we see is a portfolio with positions in different sectors, relevant adjustments in certain companies, and exposure to derivatives that can perform different functions. The most important lesson is that we must pay attention to both risk and potential returns. It's not about buying a stock just because a famous investor has it in their portfolio.
It's about understanding why it might have value, how much we're paying, and what could go wrong. And now I want to know your opinion. What do you find most interesting about Octri's 3F? Pot options on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, exposure to energy, or new positions in companies like Individor and SE Limited?
Leave it in the comments. And if you want to keep a close eye on the markets and discover new opportunities, subscribe to Simple Finance. Additionally, for those who want to delve deeper into Patreon, I publish a weekly report on the market in general, the companies I have my eye on, the catalysts of the week, the buys and sells of my personal and Swing portfolio, the companies that present results and the most important financial news.
If you're really interested, I'll leave all the information in the video description. Thank you so much for staying with me until the end. Stay curious and, above all, stay informed. See you in the next analysis.
Comments 0