The Treasury buyback was a 'wise thing to do', says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

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미 재무부 국채 바이백을 Tom Lee는 '현명한 조치'이자 가치 신호로 평가하며 시장 조정을 예상. Bean Talkington은 30년물 등 장기채 유동성 한계를 지적하고, 잭슨홀 연설과 엔비디아 실적 이후 증시는 박스권일 것으로 봄. 데이터센터 반대 여론이 AI 투자 병목 우려를 키우지만, AI 관련 소프트웨어·바이오·코인이 강세로 언급됨. 9월·10월 연준 금리 인하 기대는 낮음.

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01. Tom Lee from Fundstrat is with us today, as is Bean Talkington from Requisite Capital, and we're excited to have both of them as CNBC contributors. Binet, congratulations. Tom, it's nice to see you here in the studio. What do you think about the professor's words? Well, I think Jeremy makes some important points, but in my opinion, buying back Treasury bonds was a smart move.

02. I don't see it as any different than when a company says, " Look, investors are worried about my stock, but it's not about my company." And I think that was exactly the signal from the Ministry of Finance. So I don't think this is some kind of manipulation. This is actually an indication of value. And I think they're just trying to pick out the signal from the noise.

03. What if it doesn't work? Well, if it doesn't work, they'll have more dollars left to throw around. So I really believe that the Ministry of Finance has a lot of resources at its disposal. So I assume it will work. So, you assume that yields will start to decline again. I think we just need some ballast until we get clarity or a signal on what will happen with oil prices and the CPI dynamics that are making the market hesitant.

04. Of course, there will be a meeting in Jackson Hole this week or next, and I think it could provide clarity that would help overcome any risk premium embedded in yields. Bean, what do you think about this ? Well, I think a lot of the discussion this week boils down to Kevin W. being in a difficult position because he's saying, "let the bonds tell us the story," and at the same time Secretary Yellen is buying up Treasuries.

05. But if you look closely, 30- year bonds, and especially 20- and 30-year bonds, are very illiquid. This is a market with a total volume of about 6 trillion dollars. If you look at long-term bonds, no one is focusing on 20- and 30-year securities. 10-year, 5- year, 2-year bonds are important, but they don't buy them.

06. I believe that Fed Chairman Warsh is able to find a balance and say: first, these Treasury purchases are insignificant compared to the total volume, it is more of a signal that "we are ready to buy long-term bonds," because 10- year notes and short-term rates are what everything depends on. So I think the stock market will be in a range this week because, as the professor and Tom said, there's a performance at Jackson Hole on Friday.

07. I think this will be a key moment when we understand what he really thinks, or what he will say about his thoughts, because he has already warned that as Fed chairman he will be laconic. Tom, do we think next week will be the most important for stock movements for the next few months? You know, after next Wednesday we won't hear anything from Nvidia for a long time.

08. And I don't think anyone expects any action from the Fed in September or even October, right up until the midterm elections themselves. I think this makes the situation even more important for stocks. Agree. I think this can be considered a clarifying event, because let's take, for example, the story of AI.

09. Concerns about data centers and political opposition are emerging, and this has caused trade to slow down. I think Jensen Huang will bring back a lot of confidence by showing that demand remains the same and will continue no matter what . Likewise with the Fed, I believe uncertainty is growing in the intervals between Worsh's speeches.

10. So I think this is another chance to correct course. You raised an interesting question. So, do you think what looks like growing opposition to data centers is affecting this stock market trading? Yes, because if data centers cannot be built, then the whole bet on " bottlenecks" seems less reliable.

11. I think what we've seen in Ohio, Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania, where governors are imposing moratoriums or voters are saying it's a political issue, is giving investors pause. What if that doesn't change? I'm literally looking at one of the latest polls right now that I saw today, and support is falling across all political parties.

12. Yes, this tells us that the AI ​​industry, especially labs, needs to communicate to people that this is not the end of the world. You know, I mean, I think it's very similar to the fact that this political issue could be a real obstacle . But that's exactly why stocks of companies using AI are starting to rise.

13. The software showed good results this week. Uh, you know, even biotechnology, and then cryptocurrencies, because they all depend on the development of artificial intelligence. How about