저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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트럼프 정부의 감세 축소·관세 확대 가능성과 규제 완화, 재정적자 축소를 언급하며 성장 촉진 기대. 단기적으로 성장률이 일시 둔화될 수 있으나 달러 강세와 생산성 향상이 인플레이션을 억제할 것으로 봄. 장단기 금리차 스티프닝 가능성, M2 증가율(3.9%)과 임대료 둔화로 인플레이션이 0% 이하까지 내려갈 수 있다고 주장. 다만 화폐유통속도 둔화와 소비심리 위축으로 명목 GDP 성장 둔화 우려 제기.
다듬은 글
I think that uh president Trump would like to uh get the share shift going again towards lower uh uh income tax rates and maybe higher tariffs uh and maybe that's not a bad thing I'm not a fan of uh any increased taxes uh but it certainly did work well in the early days of our history um here you can see and this is updated for the latest real GDP growth and productivity numbers uh we're around that 2 2 and 1 half% number for both right now uh we'll get into this in a moment but um in the short term given all of the uncertainties we could see these dipping a bit until uh this Administration has its programs in place Kathy Wood the PowerHouse investment manager and CEO of Arc invest has just blown the lid off Trump's economic genius in a jaw-dropping speech she unveiled the heart-stopping truth behind Trump's game-changing strategy lower income taxes and higher tariffs and guess what it's not the disaster the media wants you to believe this has historically worked wonders for the us while wood isn't a fan of higher taxes she's quick to point out that this bold move is already producing Real Results with GDP growth hovering around 2 to 2.5% she warns that there's a short-term dip ahead due to uncertainty but hold on it's all part of the genius plan once Trump's initiatives kick in prepare for a skyrocketing economy however Trump's strategy isn't just about numbers it's about Innovation and advancement Kathy Wood stresses that the key to long-term economic success lies in pushing boundaries and sparking a technological Revolution something Trump fully understands so what can we expect next as Kathy Wood reveals the Trump Administration is setting the stage for a bold economic future buckle up because this is only the beginning let's watch highlights from Kathy Wood speech for deeper insights like subscribe and enable notifications for more Innovative Finance content and expert interviews enjoy the video this chart is giving this Administration license uh to cut spending and uh and streamline uh the government in as many ways as possible especially regulations to stir economic activity so the way to get the deficit uh down so to get this line moving up uh there are a couple of ways actually cutting spending uh which of course this Administration is doing raising taxes which they do not want to do except interestingly for perhaps private Equity we'll see uh if this time around the private Equity uh tax breaks are eliminated you know philosophically uh I don't really want tax rates to go up uh for almost anyone um I'm thinking wouldn't it be nice to get the tax rates that private Equity enjoys so those are capital gains tax rates 20% wouldn't it be nice to get those uh those tax rates across the board uh in investing including for companies like ours we of course are subject to the maximum tax rate in terms of our own income uh what about getting that closer to 20% uh that would be consistent with a flat tax so really paying a lot of attention uh to to the direction taxes are going to go and I think it's going to be very positive uh for for the financial markets um the other way to get this deficit down is to grow the economy uh very rapidly more rapidly than it has grown over time and we think that is possible I will get back to that when we get to our big Ideas we have a strong point of view about how much uh faster the economy could grow uh as this uh Administration unleashes um incentives for Innovation and uh increased productivity accelerated uh GDP growth uh so we think uh the the various programs are going to take this deficit um certainly to where treasury secretary bessent uh want wants to get it and that's 3% minus 3% uh relative to GDP but if this Administration is is successful getting growth moving quickly as well which we think it will be we could get closer to that 0% Mark now here is the chart I was uh talking about tariffs versus income tax rates both individual and corporate uh at one point in our history our early history tariffs uh were the majority of uh government income and you can see the switch uh in the early 19 unds to income tax rates I think the first income tax rate was 1% and of course now the maximum tax rate is I think more than 37% uh for individuals um I think that President Trump would like to uh get the share shift going again towards lower uh uh income tax rates and maybe higher tariffs uh and maybe that's not a bad thing I'm not a fan of uh any increased taxes uh but it certainly did work well in the early days of our history um here you can see and this is updated for the latest real GDP growth and productivity numbers uh we're around that two two and a half% number for both right now uh we'll get into this in a moment but um in the short term given all of the uncertainties we could see these dipping a bit until uh this Administration has its programs in place uh and the other reason it could dip a bit is because the velocity of money I'll get into that in a moment uh is already starting to slow uh and so we'll touch on that in a moment uh the dollar going up combined with productivity gains um those are two uh powerful anti-inflationary forces and we do believe they're going to work so the markets fears about uh uh inflation reigniting we think are misplaced uh the yield curve this has been an interesting um story over the last really more than 13 years uh you can see that the yield curve which is uh the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates short-term um usually are are lower than long-term interest rates uh but but you can see uh the the slope we've been we've been in a a declining slope in terms of this yield curve uh for the past 13 14 years and we ended up in an inverted yield curve uh for uh a little more than a year's time inverted mean meant long rates uh were lower than short rates that has flipped back around recently and um and so we're going to be testing this downtrend uh we could see a little more steepening um and uh we'll see if this downtrend has been broken why are we paying attention to this downtrend I believe that the fixed income Market has been uh sniffing out a uh some deflationary undercurrents and so long rates have not moved much above uh short term rates because they are very much influenced by inflation Cathy wood remarked that the present administration's attempts to slash spending and streamline government regulations are intended to boost economic activity and reduce the deficit she stated that the administration is already undertaking budget cuts but is not considering tax Rises with the possible exception of private Equity whose tax incentives could be withdrawn Cathy wood voiced a desire for a flat tax citing the 20% capital gains tax rate as a suitable comparison she also pointed out the necessity of Rapid economic growth implying that the administration's initiatives are intended to boost Innovation and productivity wood believes that this technique might significantly reduce the deficit potentially to 3% of GDP or lower let's go back to the interview and watch more Clips to gain insights from Kathy Wood on to uh monetary policy and here you can see money uh growth I think we're up to 3.9% uh M2 growth on a year-over-year basis uh you can see that in the purple line the purple line tends to lead inflation uh now you can see the purple line suggests uh that we could get down to 0% or less inflation uh generally and you can see we're a bit stuck in the the 2 to 3% range of course the FED is aiming for 2% it's going to hang tough uh and so we may see only one or two cuts uh this year if this inflation rate does not continue down and now we think it will continue down for a few reasons rent is the stickiest part of this inflation rate and you can see on this next chart where some early indicators of rent uh suggest the CPI rental inflation is going so the Blackline here uh you can see is very very sensitive to what's going on or has been in the last few years during covid uh the new tenant rents uh so that's the black line uh soared into the double digit range and uh you can also see that uh since then uh those that rent indicator has been coming down and has gone negative now the last time we saw this go negative was in ' 0809 uh and that of course was a housing crisis um we believe the reason it's going down now or one of the reasons is because a lot of new rental units are coming onto the market there was a huge con construction boom as um in and and it really started after 0809 as we were at 0% interest rates and private Equity money especially was looking for yield uh and so huge amount went into uh non-commercial I mean non-residential construction so commercial construction much of that in multifam and so we're beginning to see the early signs that that Supply is coming into the market and you can see it's a good leading indicator for the other much more lagged parts of uh of the rental index uh so those are owners equivalent rent of re residents both of these are in the CPI and rent of primary residents uh and so we think those numbers are going to come down from the fiveish percent range on a year-over-year basis down to uh zero or even or even less because the building over a decade period of time uh was quite substantial and then uh the other reason we think uh inflation could continue coming down is velocity so here you can see the velocity of money which is the rate at which money turns over it was part part of the uh disinflationary movement uh in the in really in this Century the uh velocity money of money was coming down it was turning over at a slower and slower rate so it was taking some of the Firepower out of money growth uh and you can see here after the Tekken Telecom uh bust and that recession we had a little bit of a lift in that cycle before it resumed its Decline and then uh in 0809 we had uh less of a cyclical cyclical bounce because it was such a bad period and and uh you know there was a lot of fear in the marketplace so the velocity of money continued uh to slow it plummeted during covid as you can see and we have had a bounce back a iCal bounce back bigger uh than the ones we've seen in uh this Century thus far but it is starting to roll over and you can see this on uh this next chart uh the velocity of money on a year-over-year basis it peaked uh around 11% so it was adding to the Firepower of money and um it has been slowing it's now at 1.3% as of the fourth quarter uh but if you do the quarter to quarter sequentially it has started to fall which means this is starting to work against money growth in terms of stimulating the economy now if money growth is only 3.9% on a year-over-year basis and this uh and the velocity of money starts falling or even just flattens out goes down to zero on a year-over-year basis which we think it will there is a lot of uncertainty new Administration a lot of fear uh as to what is going to change there's a lot of excitement to be sure as well uh but when it comes to the pocketbook you'll find people will hold close until they've there there's a little more certainty so if we go down to zero here then on a year-over-year basis nominal GDP will be 3.9% uh and uh with in inflation around the 2 and 1 half to 3% range that will not leave a a lot of room for real GDP growth on a year-over-year basis Kathy Wood analyzed the current situation of monetary policy noting the 3.9% year-on-year increase in the M2 money supply she emphasized that this growth rate tends to precede inflation implying that inflation could fall to 0% or less wood stated that the Federal Reserve intends to Target 2% inflation and may only undertake one or two interest rate reductions this year if inflation does not continue to fall she attributed the probable drop in inflation to a decrease in rent increases a crucial component of the Consumer Price Index CPI she mentioned early signs of rent increase such as new tenant rents which have been falling since the covid-19 outbreak Cathy wood believes that the increased number of new rental units entering the market as a result of the development boom will slow rent growth this in turn will help to reduce inflation another reason wood expects inflation to fall is a slowing in the velocity of money which measures the rate at which money is spent and reinvested in the economy she noticed that money velocity has been dropping since the early 2000s with a small recovery during the covid-19 outbreak however it has begun to roll over and drop again which may work against money growth while stimulating the economy wood also spoke about the effect of tariffs on consumer morale and inflation expectations she added that the consumer sentiment index has been dropping possibly due to concerns about increasing costs and tariffs furthermore the predicted one-year inflation rate has grown significantly which would attributes to concerns about tariffs and Rising prices this rise in inflation expectations could influence future monetary policy decisions furthermore she pointed out the possibility of a reduction in Real GDP growth if inflation does not fall and warned that the present nominal GDP growth rate of around 5% May slip to around 3.9% as velocity declines what do you think will be the most significant factor influencing inflation and economic growth in the coming year please drop your thoughts in the comments below share this video and hit your thumbs on the like button thanks for watching don't forget to subscribe for
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