원문 보기
Dad, I hope you've got your helmet on, because I have , you know what? Fear has entered this market . Folks, 33 million parish contracts changed hands on Friday. This is the most shorting and hedging day we have seen in the US since we started keeping track in 1992, 30 years later. I can say this easily because not only do I know how to subtract 92 from 22, but I also know that I am 30 years old.
This bearish trend indicates an impending decline from retail investors. During this 2022 market crash, retail investors were never net sellers for a single day. Instead, retail investors are spending about $1.2 billion every day buying dip-books . Generally and historically, we know that it is best to buy dips during market downturns because even if you miss the three best days of the year, you may experience more pain in the short term , but the returns may be lower.
Now, we do n't know if this will still be true in 2022. There has been a lot of tactical trading where people have been heading towards a slump, you could say. That means selling, waiting , and then buying back at a lower price . But those like me, including those like you, are now feeling the pain , because we are heading back towards a new decline .
Some say the Fed is to blame for this . In fact, some say the Fed has a strange idea, as Atlanta Fed President Bostick said this morning that the economy is still on a positive trajectory because unemployment is low. So, as long as the economy has a "favorable momentum," in Mr. Bostic's words , the economy has the "capacity to absorb the measures we take." In other words , the Fed feels right in their ability and opportunity to say, "Hey , you know what?
Yes, we're going to raise interest rates because it doesn't affect anything we're doing to destroy the American economy and destroy people's wealth . So, okay, let's raise this a little bit more." Okay, you thought a 3% interest rate was bad . You thought the level one payout was bad . Okay, let's raise it to level two, which is the final Fed funds rate of 4.5%.
If that doesn't work either , maybe level three will help. This is what some people are starting to fear , which is why the market was so bad last week , and I think it may continue this week as well, we'll see. Crypto is already showing a decline in the red. But if they raise us to level three, " Oh, yeah, you don't want to lose your job yet .
You're still spending money . We'll raise your interest rate to five or 6% and crush you." Of course, many say this is what needs to be done to suppress the highest inflation we've seen in 40 years . At the same time , core inflation is still rising . We are seeing some signs that inflation is starting to decline.
But, this makes one party very nervous , because the Fed is so far behind , they are forced to be aggressive. Of course, an equal number of people say, " No, if the Fed continues to crush the market, they will push us into a great recession ." We talk about this often , we use it to do fundamental research on great companies, and to take advantage of this fantastic opportunity in the market to buy stocks of great companies at low prices that are satisfactory through the fundamental research we do every day .
Whether it's SAS businesses , AMD's very undervalued , or businesses that we think are overvalued . If you want to participate in the live streams where I explain them, be sure to check out the courses to grow your wealth below . As for AMD, AMD currently looks more attractive compared to Nvidia , not only due to their multiples, but also due to the impact Nvidia has suffered from the gaming downturn; This was largely a crypto slump, as crypto is tied to gaming revenue .
Anyway , if you have any additional information about AMD or Nvidia , please share it with me in the comments below. Post a comment there or join me in the live sessions for those course members . Remember, this Friday the 30th is a coupon code that expires . I think it's Friday . Maybe it's Thursday .
Whatever the 30th is . Ah, the 30th is Friday . Okay, whatever . So, what do we know? We know that the Fed acts fast. We know they say they need to act fast. There is a legitimate concern that the Federal Reserve may further increase its hawkish stance in the next few cycles. We are going to continue to feel that kind of crisis throughout this year .
I'm going to talk about catalysts now , but first I want to talk about the Federal Reserve , because we have to remember that we're trying to predict what the Federal Reserve is going to do, regardless of the short-term changes . In the current unprecedented period , Jerome Powell goes so far as to say that we are in a new era, which is a bit unsettling , because it implies that the Federal Reserve can do things it has never done before, right?
Maybe they don't know what they're doing . Either way , they seem to have lost control. So, markets are not only looking for safety , but are also factoring in the possibility that the Federal Reserve could move us into a tighter third stage , where the Federal Reserve interest rate would be 5 to 6%.
Before we talk about incentives, I want to be very clear about what the final interest rate of 5 to 6% means . First, it is my opinion that this will definitely lead to a real estate decline of 20 to 30% . That's a final interest rate of 5 to 6% . Currently, we are at about 4.5% . I think my target of a 15 to 20% decline in the real estate market is still feasible.
If you want to learn more about the triggers I look for to identify when the market is bottoming out , watch the full free video at the link below that explains the triggers I recommend for identifying market bottoms. I talked a little about my startup, House Hack, and you can also visit househack.com for more details.
But it's a great video in terms of incentives for the real estate market. Anyway , if we reach a rate of 5 to 6% . We're not just going to see an additional 10% drop in real estate , we could see an additional drop of maybe 15% or even 35% . We are not going to see a situation like 2008 . I don't believe that will happen, because we have strong banks.
We are not going to face a financial and banking crisis . Of course, people may sell their homes out of fear that house prices have peaked, and they do n't want to face another cycle. But, many people have obtained loans at very low interest rates. Therefore, it is better to stay in the old house than to sell the house and buy another house at a higher interest rate .
But not everyone is in that position, especially those who own more than one property . They can sell other assets while maintaining the low interest rate on the home they live in. Actually , it's something like what I did . In any case , we need to look at what would happen if the Federal Reserve's interest rate rose to 5 to 6% .
This is just the beginning of the stock market's woes. This is really just the beginning. The S&P 500 index is likely to fall another 20%, as Ray Dalio expects . We thought the worst was when the S&P 500 was around 3600 , but it could go below 3,000. In fact, they predict it could drop as low as 2900 .
It is very damaging and very painful . So, if you intend to get through this next cycle , it's best to get out of the margin and be firm. In fact, my biggest recommendation is this: do whatever you can to save money, put money aside, pay off credit card debt and be prepared, because we are going to face a very difficult time .
When we do recover , let's hope it happens quickly . Personally, I don't like to stand aside from the market . I'm still in the investment , even though it's painful, but I don't want to miss the good days that will come when the Federal Reserve finally eases its stance . In general, I've been saying this since January, if you don't want to be in the market for a long time, the right time to re-enter is when the Federal Reserve changes its policy.
Unless you own stocks that perform well even when consumer demand falls during a recession. In my opinion, companies like Tesla, American Express, or EnFace are among such stocks . The problem is that the decline in the housing market will also affect Enface. So, you won't have much left . Don't worry , we will continue to do basic research daily, and I hope I can share some of my favorite things with you soon.
However AMD, check out my AMD review. That's a good study. Also, I'll make sure you check out my other reviews, like my Polestar review . Anyway , now let 's talk about catalysts. Well, a big catalyst emerging now is definitely Russia. That is, Russia is trying to recruit 1 million men . Now the problem with this is that these will be untrained individuals .
You should send them to training camp. You need to train them. But many Russian leaders are dead . The Kremlin is considering closing borders and preventing people from fleeing Russia . People are queuing for hours to enter countries like Kazakhstan , and people are traveling to Finland at twice the speed of normal .
So Russia is going to be a potential catalyst here because Putin is being pushed into a corner and will not only fail but will continue to fail . This has some concerned about the possibility of small-scale or strategic nuclear weapons use , which the United States says it will not tolerate. But then again, we've seen the US say it won't allow certain things and then they happen , for example when chemical weapons were used in Syria .
But again, we're not going to go into specific examples where we did nothing even though red lines were crossed . Tuesday , there's a real estate booster coming, I like watching the real estate booster, depending on , unaccredited investors . I hope we can open it for you in January . The sooner you join, the more warrants you can get, which are not a kind of free call options .
Just read PPM. This is not a request. PPM is, you can read more about those options, they are very elegant . They expire at the end of each month . So, there is an incentive for that . Anyway , on Tuesday , monthly new home sales data comes out. We expect minus 2.2% . Last month, we had minus 12.6% .
It will be interesting to see if we really only get minus 2.2%. I think it could get worse, but we'll wait and see. The house price index is coming up and is expected to remain unchanged . This is because interest rates did not rise as rapidly last August as they did in September. So, I expect more impact on this in next month's report .
On Wednesday, Vail Resorts and Basex companies report. I 'm very curious to hear their thoughts on job losses and the employment situation, especially since the Federal Reserve has made this a priority . I also expect information on reserves from all reporting companies . For example , Nike 's earnings report is due on Thursday.
Information about inventory is important here. I also want to know if a revenue slowdown is starting with Nike . Nike had a year-over-year growth of minus 1 percent . I would n't be surprised if it turns negative again, and that would mark an official revenue slowdown for Nike. Their net revenue last quarter was down minus 5 percent year-over-year.
So, let's see what happens. Bed Bath and Beyond should have gone bankrupt, but it's still alive . I'd rather see something else happen here than see revenue decline because their business is bad . I would like to see how the spend per basket changes . This means how much people spend each time at Bed Bath and whether that number is decreasing .
Are there any comments about people buying cheaper items rather than more expensive ones? I expect the same not only at Bed Bath and Beyond, but also at Rite Aid, which is reporting on Thursday . CarMax reports on Thursday. Jobless claims are expected to be 215,000 on Thursday . I'm telling you this is not a big number .
The number of less than 300,000 is relatively small, and this is not intended to disparage anyone who is losing their jobs, it is just a small number . Historically, 200,000 unemployment claims is not a big deal. Annual GDP data comes in on Thursday, which is expected to be minus 0.6 percent on an annual basis .
This will reaffirm that we are still in a recession . Carnival reports on Friday, and I'd like to see its capacity numbers . It's just how many seats are booked on their luxury ships . A lot of data is due to be released on Friday. Friday the 30th. We will receive many important information on Friday .
There is little news on earnings, but there are some important factors . I just want to finish these two things first . The coupon code for the wealth creation courses in the link below expires on Friday. We are bringing a major change to the Path to Wealth curriculum . So, whether you are in it or planning to join , the curriculum is being completely revamped .
It wasn't completely finished at first , and I'm sorry about that , but it's getting a huge makeover. As a reminder, it's a good idea to join before the price increases on Friday and before we announce changes to that plan . So wait , but it's better for you to join before then. You wo n't regret it.
Also, Thursday or Friday is the last day of the month. So, if you are interested in investing in House Hack, make sure to send your money by Friday and get a maximum of 55% of the warrants . If you are a curriculum member, you get an additional 10%. Now, inflation figures for the Eurozone are due to be released .
They are expected to be 9.7% . To be honest , they could even be as high as 10% . If it were to go to 10% , I think it would have a huge psychological impact on the markets, because hyperinflation would be very devastating . Again , we expect 9.7% , but we'll see what happens . In the US , PCE data is released on Friday.
It will be released at 5:30 in the morning . If you think I should go live about PCE, please comment below . On a monthly basis, we expect 0.1% . On an annual basis, we expect 6% . These numbers are always lower than the CPI . Core PCE is expected to be 4.7% on an annualized basis and 0.5% on a monthly basis .
This is not so good, because this is probably the most important number . A 0.5% core reading on a monthly basis would be 6% per year, which is bad. This is the exact reason why the Fed continues to torture us. As if there weren't enough factors on Friday or this week, the University of Michigan's expectations are also being released.
These will provide a glimpse into consumer sentiment , which is expected to be at 59.5 . One-year inflation expectations are not yet known, but we expect them to remain stable at 2.8% for 5 to 10 years . These expectations are actually coming down , and with the pressure Powell continues to give us , I expect these to continue to come down, which is very good.
Therefore, upcoming earnings reports, PCE, and the University of Michigan's consumer expectations are very important. And, look, everything is going to be towards the Federal Reserve . Are they going to continue to destabilize us or are they going to give us a chance ? Anyway , if we continue to be crushed , it's nice to meet you.
May the soul rest in peace . Maybe when we recover from this and look back a year from now and think, "Thank God we invested in 2022," a round of applause. I will celebrate happiness with you too. Okay, friends. Thank you very much. Bye.
댓글 0