저자: KenGriffin · 외국인
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켄 그리핀은 인플레이션이 2% 목표로 빠르게 내려가기 어렵다고 보며, 연준이 성급히 금리를 인하했다가 되돌리는 것이 가장 파괴적이라고 경고한다. 미국 정부부채(34조 달러 이상)와 이자지출 급증, 신용등급 강등에 따른 국가 신용(주권) 리스크를 우려하며 해외 수요 감소 가능성을 언급한다. 투자 측면에서는 PER이 높은 빅테크(매그니피센트 7) 대신 PER이 역사적 평균에 가까운 산업재 섹터 분산을 선호한다. S&P500 선행 PER은 약 20배로 1990년대 말 버블 고점 25배보다 낮아 추가 상승 여지가 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
big picture you know we still have an enormous amount of government spending and that's his investment firm Citadel is considered today one of the most successful hedge funds with billions of dollars of profits since its Inception in 1990 as of 2023 he tops the list of the new Mega rich list in finance who accumulated immense wealth in the last 10 years also one of the most prominent firms that he founded is Citadel Securities which is also one of the largest market makers in the world and it operates in more than 50 countries the perspective that Ken Griffin has over the market is considered extremely valuable given the fact that his Market maker firm has access to unique and instant Market data especially when it comes to the ability to observe the buy and sell orders in real time it is estimated that Citadel Securities handles around 40% of us retail trades and is considered one of the biggest mediators in the market so what are exactly some of the economic challenges that Ken Griffin foresees ahead and are there any potential opportunities that he perceives in the market so we've got two big big Tailwinds that continue to support the inflation narrative now the good news is is that the fed's tighter monetary policy is clearly bringing inflation rates down but it is a bit of a battle between two different opposing forces the monetary policy of the fed and the propagate fiscal spending of Washington and the and the push in the west towards de globalization unfortunately the inflation problem in the US currently is still putting a lot of pressure on us households when it comes to affording their basic needs the average American household now owes close to $88,000 in credit card debt with people between the ages of 42 and 76 years old having the highest average amount of debt this is happening at a time when consumer spending is also at an all-time high level which sounds very irrational to some extent some analysts suggest that Americans are doom spending and that this behavior is a way to cope with stress as their economic uncertainty worsens in addition there are also some predictions about the possibility that inflation won't actually return to its normal annual Target of 2% anytime soon which in turn is going to further exacerbate the problem for middle and lower class households when it comes to the increase in their cost of living the challenge with the FED right now remains in bringing inflation down but investors are expecting a bunch of rate Cuts soon which in turn is driving up asset prices and making Financial conditions looser we also have the fed's chair Jerome Powell in his latest fomc meeting that happened in May expressing his concerns about the high inflation rate which is now at 3.5% and about the possibility that more progress in bringing it down is not assured according to Ken Griffin the worst thing the FED can do is to cut rates pause and then go back to higher rates quickly look I think they've been pretty clear they're going to continue to wait to see how the data plays out and if I'm them I don't want to cut too quickly the worst thing they could end up doing is cutting pausing and then changing direction back towards higher rates quickly that would in my opinion be the most devastating course of action they could pursue Ken Griffin has also expressed his concerns about the current sovereign debt issue and the massive government spending that is occurring only interest payment on the total government debt today which is now over $34 trillion is the fastest growing part of the budget and has recently surpassed the $1 trillion Mark interest payments are also projected to surpass the government's total spending on National Defense later in 2024 which is the third highest expense currently the recent downgrades of Us credit ratings by credit rating agencies have also been a concern to some investors including Ken Griffin the downside of such credit downgrades is that other countries and investors could potentially be less likely to buy and invest in us treasuries because of the risk of a potential default on its debt and therefore not getting back their invested money I think the biggest issue that's not priced the market right now is is The Sovereign risk of Us credit Us credit Us credit AAA credit well that's not AAA anymore right I wish it were AAA you think that should be better priced in bonds I I think that it's just not part of the day in and day out dialogue and that allows Washington to continue to spend at levels that are our borderline sanity at this point in the economic cycle I mean we're talking about a budget next year of $7 trillion spending is up about 20% in two years I mean this is just out of control and unfortunately when when your Sovereign markets start to put the hammer down and terms of of discipline that could be pretty brutal and there's no country that's going to bail America out we're going to have to write our own ship there's no IMF for the United States of America the countries that own the most amount of US debt through their investments in treasury bills are Japan China and the UK which collectively hold a substantial amount of the total foreign owned debt other countries that have significantly dropped their ownership of treasury bills recently are mainly countries within bricks due to short-term capital needs as well as the fear of sanctions although the purchasing of US debt has always been considered a very safe investment for investors and foreign countries alike the deficit spending and the sovereign debt issue together with the recent geopolitical tensions in Europe have created a lot of concerns about holding this investment that's the key question which is will we start to see a loss of confidence in owning an ever increasing stockpile of US debt particularly amongst countries with whom our Behavior havior has become ever increasingly adversarial over the last couple of years so it's a really interesting question we're going to have to turn more and more to funding our domestic liabilities with domestic money now when it comes to some of the potential opportunities that exist in the market today Ken Griffin sees two different strategies that could be implemented one of them is the pursuit of the big and bold Magnificent Seven companies which are the famous tech companies whose average price to earnings ratio nowadays is considerably High higher than the rest of the market or simply pursuing other companies across the industrial sector where the price to earnings ratios are much lower and More in line with the historical averages it is also worth mentioning that the SNP 500's forward price to earnings ratio stands today at about 20 times earnings which is below the 25 times earnings Peak that was reached during the bubble back in the late '90s when the internet was the big new thing instead of artificial intelligence that we have currently this could mean that even though stock prices are making all-time high levels and many analysts suggest that we are in a bubble right now there is still a potential chance of a 30% upside if we compare what's happening today with what happened during the dot bubble especially when we also consider the you've got this incredible story that's just ripping through the equity Market about the transformative changes that are coming with AI and then you've got much of the market is at at earnings priced earnings levels that are far more in line with historical averages particularly across the industrial base so it's these are this is a moment in time where you can you can in some sense you can sign up for big bold you know these companies are changing the future or you can put your money to work in areas of the market where price earnings ratios are much much more in line with historical averages and have a very different risk reward profile so overall there are definitely some serious concerns about the inability to bring inflation down to its normal Target level of 2% given the current attention the way they should from investors and policy makers alike but still there are always opportunities out there in the markets whether the economy is doing good or bad and if you want to stay on top of that make sure to leave a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel and with that being said see you in the next one
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