저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 드러켄밀러의 거시 경고(정부 부채·QE 후유증·고평가)를 근거로 향후 주식시장은 부진하거나 악화될 가능성이 높으며, 일부 개별 기업과 AI 관련 기회는 존재한다. 거시 경고: 2020~2023년 약 3년간 미국 재정적자 약 9조 달러 누적, 그중 약 60%를 연준이 조달했다고 언급. 아르헨티나와 비교하며 달러의 기축통화 지위가 인플레이션 충격을 일부 완화한다고 설명. 가계 부담: 신용카드 부채 1조 달러 이상(사상 최고), consumer 1인당 평균 6,000달러 이상. 블랙프라이데이·사이버먼데이에 후불결제(BNPL) 이용이 늘어난 점을 QE 시절 소비 습관이 남아 있다는 근거로 제시. 채권: 현재 금리 수준이 적정하지 않으며 투자자들이 QE 시기 패턴이 계속될 것으로 믿는 '최근성 편향(recency bias)'에 빠져 있다고 주장. 채권·금리 방향에 대한 구체적 수치 전망은 제시되지 않음. 주식 전망: 주식시장은 현 수준에서 횡보하거나 더 나빠질 것으로 예상. 2024~2025년 경제 내 어딘가가 깨질 수 있다고 봄. 기업 밸류에이션(PER)이 비QE 시기보다 높아 닷컴버블 말기 이후 가장 높은 수준이라고 차트로 설명. 개별 기업·AI: 특정 기업은 매우 잘할 것이며 AI가 향후 몇 년간 많은 기회를 가져올 것이라고 언급. 구체적 종목명·목표가는 제시되지 않음. 비트코인: 현재 가격 수준은 예상하지 못했으며 일부 보유해야 한다고 생각하나 실제 보유 여부는 불명확. 리스크 요인: 공급망 문제, 지정학적 상황, 정부 지출 억제 실패 가능성, 금리 상승에 따른 부채 부담 증가. 결론적 태도: 거시 환경은 비관적이나 돈은 사라지지 않고 이동하므로 자금 흐름을 분석해 남들보다 먼저 자리를 잡는 것이 투자자의 역할이라고 강조.
다듬은 글
for the billionaire investor and former hedge fund manager Stanley dren Miller has been warning about the economy and what is likely to be happening over the next few years Stanley has been saying that Stock Investing will be tough in the next 10 years due to what he believes is a turbulent decade that is going to be synonymous with what we saw back in the 80s he also talked about the government deficit issue and highlighted the exaggerated spending which he referred to as a drunken sailor spending and said that it needs to stop even though he does not believe that this spending spree will slow down anytime soon given the current geopolitical situation and the conflicts that are happening in the world today moreover the rising interest rates are also adding significant pressure to the growing government debt which is now at a record high but what does stanle dren Miller's outlook for the economy look like and what investments is he expecting to perform well during the current economic environment but before we continue with answering these questions make sure to subscribe to the channel if you haven't already now Stanley highlighted the fact that the US economy has accumulated a $9 trillion deficit only in 3 years between 2020 to 2023 He also mentioned that 60% of that deficit has been financed by the Federal Reserve another country that also did the same thing was Argentina and they now have one of the biggest inflation problems in the world the only difference between the US and Argentina is that the US has the dollar which has the world Reserve currency status which in turn is reducing the inflation effect on the economy because of the global demand for the US dollar however despite all of that demand the inflation problem in the US currently is still putting a lot of pressure on us households when it comes to affording their basic needs we have credit card debt now at an all-time high level of more than $1 trillion which is a level that has never been reached before this comes down to an average of more than $6,000 of credit card debt per consumer for Stanley also made a few comments on bonds and bond yields and how they are not where they are supposed to be today with the current interest rates according to him many investors are now living in the past where they think that what happened in recent years during the QE or quantitative easing years will continue to happen this is something that psychologists call recency bias where a person or an investor gives greater importance to the most recent event we can also see that being represented in what happened recently on Black Friday where consumer spending was at an all-time high level even though the credit card debt is also at an all-time high during the sales on Black Friday and Cyber Monday consumers chose to use buy now pay later to pay for their items instead of using their credit cards so the average consumer apparently is also still living in the QE period where they are still used to a lot of spending instead of slowing things down during the current economic environment for for now when it comes to the investment side of things and how to go about it Stanley believes that the stock market will be at the same level or performing worse moving forward he is also expecting that something in the economy could break in 2024 or 2025 however he also thinks that specific companies will do very well and that AI will bring a lot of opportunities in the next few years but the overall situation and the valuation of companies in the market is not where it is supposed to be this is because companies are now trading at a higher price to earnings ratio compared to what it used to be before during the non-quantitative easing periods as we can see in this chart the only time when such companies valuations were almost as high as now was during the dotom bubble in the late 1990s for also when it comes to bitcoin Stanley says that he did not expect it to be where it is today and that he should own some but he doesn't so obviously Stanley's General outlook on the market is not so optimistic this is due to what is happening on the macro level when it comes to several factors including the supply chain issues and the overall geopolitical situation in the world but as a matter of fact there are always opportunities in the markets regardless of the overall macro situation in the world since money does not simply disappear but rather moves from one place to another and that's what we do as investors as we try to analyze and figure out where the money is moving and try to be there at the right time before everyone else so that was it for this video If you enjoyed this one make sure to leave a thumbs up and subscribe to the channel and with that being said see you in the next one
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