저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
유가 상승이 주식을 나쁘게 만든다는 통념은 틀렸다는 주장이다. 핵심 논리: 유가가 오르면 소비자 지출이 줄지만 그 돈은 에너지 기업 등으로 흘러가 GDP 총량은 같다. 유가 상승은 대체로 석유회사 수익을 늘려 에너지 주식에 유리하고, 다른 기업에는 불리할 수 있다. 다만 시장이 이를 미리 반영했는지에 따라 차이가 난다. 장기 상관관계: 유가와 주가의 상관계수는 장기적으로 사실상 0이며, 15년 롤링 기간에도 0에서 크게 벗어나지 않는다. 2011~2014년 유가가 배럴당 100달러 이상으로 유지되던 기간에도 기업 실적 성장과 함께 주가는 약 60% 상승했다. 결론: 유가가 주가를 결정하지 않으며, 다른 요인이 더 중요하다. 이 통념은 상관관계 검증으로 쉽게 반박된다. 출연자는 자신의 책 Debunkery에서 같은 주장을 했다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
whenever you hear intuitive common sense there's two things you should do now you may have heard that oil prices are high these days uh you'd have to kind of be in the upper end amazon basin fleeing humanity to not know that but there's a general myth or what i call a bunk concept that i wrote about years ago in my book debunkery that high oil prices cause stocks to behave badly now i understand the thinking behind this uh and i think you do too the idea is well lots of us have to do things like drive a car to get to work or to go to the grocery store that uses up gasoline we have to heat our house if we spend more on that that's money we don't have to spend on other things that make the economy bad you're familiar with that logic let me just tell you that's intuitive common sense and whenever you hear intuitive common sense there's two things you should do one check to see if you can actually play the math in inverse to see if it's really true and two check to see if there's an actual long history of oil prices and stock prices and see how they correlate now in this case we can play this both ways but we want to always think globally first that's the right way to think if you possibly can and let's think about that person who only has a hundred dollars to spend and is before the price of oil goes up is spending 25 of that on things that derive from petroleum products and 75 on other stuff that person's contribution to gdp is a hundred if you cannot add 25 and 75 and get to a hundred and this is the only advertisement i'm going to make today here if you can't add 25 and 75 and get to 100 you probably really do need professional help with your money management but having said that let me just say that if the price of oil goes up by 15 from 25 to 40.
now that same person instead of 75 to spend on everything else only has 60 to spend on everything else which is what you feared but note when you put the two together it's still 100 contributed gdp it's just different sources that get it and in the real world price of oil going up tends to make the oil companies more profitable not always but often makes the energy stocks do well and then makes some other companies less profitable and makes their stocks do less well the less well or the or that more well is largely a function of whether the market saw the price increase coming at them or not whether the market is surprised by it or already priced it into the stocks but the reality is it doesn't change the gdp feature now the other point that i want to make and i did this in my debunk read book but i did it years ago when i was young i used to believe this stuff because when i was young it wasn't easy to access mega data fast the rise of pcs started to allow for that but it's just really easy to go online and get the price of oil going back pretty much as far as you want the price of stocks going back pretty much as far as you want and overlay them and see what is the correlation between them now if the correlation between two things comes out to be perfect so that when the one goes up the other goes up when the one goes down the other goes down when you run a correlation you'll get a number of one if they're exactly the verse the one goes up the other goes down or vice versa then you'll get a negative one the fact of the matter is you can look up how to do this online you can do it yourself if you can't hire a teenager to teach you how because it's pretty simple and when you do that with oil you find in the very long term the correlation has been zero the correlation coefficient of oil to stocks is zero and in fact if you take 15-year time periods rolling along you can get a little ways away from zero but not very far what is that saying it's saying that the price of stocks and oil come from everything but the price of stocks and oil i just want you to think about that repeat after me everything but everything but there's actually no consistency whatsoever of the price of oil going up and stocks doing anything in particular let me take you to some recent examples and some logic on this just some recent history the price of oil has been recently above 100 whether you use wti or brent the fact of the matter is those prices we can track a long ways back and they were above a hundred dollars pretty much steadily between 2011 and 2014.
now 100 then was worth more than a hundred dollars now because there's been some inflation in the meantime but in that time period corporate earnings grew the stock market rose by 60 percent though was not massive inflation and the theory that people believe rising oil must be bad for stocks that period alone should teach you that you pretty much all live through and can easily go back and see the modern history of by looking online as not true and it's not true because you know what it's not true i want you to repeat after me the price of oil does not drive stocks everything but everything else matters the price of oil tends to be in the market and not driving stocks so with that i just want to as i did throughout my book debunkery uh which i wrote some years ago uh expressed to you that this like so many other commonly accepted pieces of conventional wisdom are both wrong and easily disproved by just simply looking at continuous price periods of a and b and seeing if there's a correlation there if there's no correlation there can't be causation and in oil and stocks there is not
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