저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 약세장이 와도 장기 투자자는 자기 통제를 유지하면 은퇴자산이 치명적으로 훼손되지 않으며, 자본주의의 혁신력이 결국 이긴다는 것이 핵심 주장이다. 약세장 인식에 대한 반론: 많은 사람들이 약세장이 더 깊어지고 은퇴자산을 파괴할 것이라 걱정하지만, 이는 우스꽝스러운 생각이라고 주장한다. 이 발언 시점 근거: 2022년 6월 13일 주가지수가 고점 대비 20% 이상 하락 마감하며 약세장에 공식 진입했다고 언급했다. 약세장 기간: 역사적으로 모든 약세장을 보면 대부분 1~2년 이내로 짧았고, 일부는 더 길었으나 소수에 그쳤다. 통제 가능한 요소: 주가의 방향은 통제할 수 없으며, 투자자가 통제할 수 있는 것은 자신의 지출과 바닥에서 파는 충동뿐이라고 강조했다. 변동성의 의미: 하락 시의 부정적 변동성과 그 뒤 따르는 강한 반등의 긍정적 변동성이 함께 있어 주식의 장기 초과수익을 설명한다고 주장했다. 자본주의 낙관론: 사회·정치적 추세가 자본주의를 압도한다는 주장은 과거에도 반복되었으나 항상 틀렸으며, 현재의 우려 역시 같은 전철을 밟을 것이라 본다. 혁신의 역할: 지난 20년간 존재하지 않던 배달, 화상회의, 스마트폰 등 새로운 제품과 서비스가 등장했고, 미래의 혁신도 장기 이익을 만들 것이라 전망했다. 투자 태도: 장기 자본이라면 자본주의에 베팅하는 쪽이 낫고, 이번엔 다르다는 미디어의 메시지는 대개 틀렸다고 조언했다. 책 인용: 저서 『Debunkery』 8장의 내용을 근거로 제시했다. 대상 자산 예측: 특정 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 장기적인 주식시장 낙관 견해만 제시했다.
다듬은 글
A lot of people say boy oh boy if it's a bear market it's got to get a lot lower and oh by the way a bear market can destroy my entire retirement. Well that's actually pretty ridiculous if you stop and think about it. On June 13th we officially entered a bear market by closing below 20% off the highs in January.
In that a lot of people say boy oh boy if it's a bear market it's got to get a lot lower and oh by the way a bear market can destroy my entire retirement. Well that's actually pretty ridiculous if you stop and think about it. You agreed cannot control stocks. You cannot control where they go. You can control yourself and yourself is about all you can control.
In that the long-term history of the stock market includes all bear markets ever. Uh there have been a few very long ones. But only a few. Ever. Mostly compared to your retirement they're not very long. A year to two at the most. Some of them shorter. Yes, some of them longer. But even there as long as you control yourself your expenses and your propensity to want to sell out at the bottom there's no irreparable harm.
It's the feature that people don't think through which is that the volatility of stocks which includes the negative volatility that they dislike coupled with the positive volatility that comes on the other side of a decline, of a big decline. That volatility is exactly central in economic theory to why stocks have that long-term superior return.
The fact is we have a very long history of stocks. We have a very long history. And in that there has always been this notion that one big bear and I'm done. And it's never been true. Never. And it's paralleled to another thought that I wrote about in my book Debunkery where this was the eighth debunk that I did.
And I actually brought the book with me to show you some of it. But in this one a central argument has always been that tied to this feature, that feature, the other feature. It's not going to be the way in the future that it's been in the past. Capitalism will not be able to overcome the problems that we've had.
It could be because of sociopolitical or other features. But in reality, that view is not new. And in reality, that view has always been wrong. And will be wrong now. The power of capitalism to create new, better, improved, and to maneuver around the problems that we have with a little bit of time is simply awe-inspiring in terms of the material well-being of human beings is uh the most blessed thing that's ever occurred to humans.
So, I want to read to you briefly Remember, the future includes as of yet unimagined earnings from currently unfathomed products and services born of boundless human ingenuity, innovation and desires from years to come, not yet conceived. Always been that way. Forever people have been moaning about stocks being too high and capitalism done.
Fine, but every single time they've been proven wrong. If you're betting with long-term capital, I suggest you bet on the side of it and not betting against it. If any different this time, despite it always feeling different and the media always giving you countless reasons for why it is now and will be different.
It isn't. Just think in the last 20 years, how many things you see and have that did not exist before. Whether it's delivery systems to your house with food, whether it's Zoom meetings that you had during COVID, whether it's what's on your smartphone. In so many ways, even though you might have had a cell phone 20 years ago, they're pretty primitive compared to what you have today.
The ability to keep coming up with new, different, better and the beneficiaries of those often being firms that had nothing to do with their creation, but their utilization of them to do something else for consumers is simply awe-inspiring. Often the popular conclusion is that social and political trends will overwhelm capitalism.
That isn't a new view. Now now that argument's also pretty common right here, right now in 2022. Uh there's a big portion of our investor world that thinks that boy oh boy, you know, capitalism is under assault like it's never been before and you know, they kind of miss notions of things that have happened in our country and in other countries.
Uh in the past, whether it would be in the '30s or or or Yeah, not always, but almost always in democratic nations globally capitalism has ended up more powerful than politicians, social trends, and temporary political will and wins out in the end. Uh so, I just want you This is chapter eight of my book debunkery.
But, I I think it's important to note that the fact is that bear markets aren't that long. The bounce back is usually not perfectly so, but relatively V-shaped compared to the prior decline. The fact is that the tendency is always to think it's different. But, in reality while it's always a little different, it's never so much different to motivate you to a conclusion that says one big bear and you're done.
It isn't true. It hasn't been true. And I absolutely believe that it will not be true. Thank you .
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