저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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미국 경제는 고용·성장·주식시장이 견조해 연착륙 기대가 높지만, 인플레이션 체감은 여전히 나쁘고 백악관은 경제 성과를 더 잘 전달해야 한다. 다만 소비 둔화, 저축 감소, 공급망 압력 등으로 성장이 1~1.5% 수준으로 둔화하고 역성장 위험도 있다. 기업 간 차별화(디스퍼전)가 커지고 시장이 과도한 금리 인하를 반영하고 있어 하방 리스크가 있다. 본인 개인 전망은 첫 금리 인하가 여름 무렵 25bp 수준으로 나올 것이라는 것이다.
다듬은 글
better than expected data boosting optimism for a soft Landing just last week we saw the biggest jump in 30 years and how positive consumers are feeling about the economy things are finally beginning sink and we pass a lot of really good legislation we knew it was going to take time for it to begin to take hold but it's taking hold now and turning the economy around but Muhammad aleran of Queens College camebridge writing early this month the Biden Administration cannot simply rely on Lower inflation to alleviate voters concerns about its economic management it needs to communicate more effectively the exceptionalism of US economic performance Muhammad I'm pleased to say joined us now for more Muhammad good morning I think you're right on the money now dip this is a big big issue for communication in the white house right now can you give us what you think they should do in the weeks and months to come sure John thanks for having me on they have to translate things that they've achieved and that the public doesn't appreciate amazing job growth very strong economy you remember even Bloomberg said 100% probability of recession um in 20123 instead We've Ended up with a 5% third quarter a 3.3% fourth quarter um remarkable stock markets record high and it's the only Advanced economy that is investing in the drivers of tomorrow's growth that is a long list of achievements and yet if you ask the person in the street and and when we talked about the polls they think that the Administration has mishandled the economy there's two reasons for that one is inflation you're absolutely right people think in terms of price level so for them when you say we are winning the war over inflation they think that that means prices will come down not that the rate of price increases will come down and the second thing is they haven't communicated in a manner that translate this to the every day so you need a lot more consistent communication and you need it simplified so that the person in the street understands why not only are they better off than they've been before but the prospects is that we have new growth engines coming in I'd also argue Muhammad you need the labor market to hold up for the rest of this year to allow the scar of inflation to actually heal do you think the easing of financial conditions over the last few months let's go from the end of October Muhammad do you think that's sufficient to delay any weakness in the labor market I don't because a lot of this is like pushing on a string um corporates will be able to refinance at lower rates um mortgages slightly better but the reality is that there structural issues I mean that is the big risk for the administration is that the economy slows this year because some of the drivers of last year's growth are no longer there including High savings and secondly inflation stops going down you know John I I've said we are in in the sweetest spot of the inflation reduction right now it's going to get tougher going forward and we've already seen from Europe that it's not out of the question that not only does inflation stabilize but once in a while you get the weight going up and that would really impact perceptions the White House is so excited to lean into this Muhammad soft very soft Landing expectation the timeline may be on their side but when you look out to November where are the vulnerabilities to that soft Landing so the vulnerability of there's three of them one is what the external world is imposing on the US it is getting harder to grow in this in this global environment we have disruptions of Supply chains we have cost pressures in the pipeline we have delays in shipments all that has a marginal impact two the consumer is going to be under more pressure you've talked about debt levels in in the previous hour savings have come down we no longer have the pandemic savings being utilized to the extent it was before so there's a real risk that growth slows to the one to one and a half% level with downside that we may slip into a negative quarter and then thirdly inflation we need inflation to keep on going down the mar the market expects that it will do so in a much more orderly way than I think will materialize unfortunately I'm struck by something I keep thinking about as Cameron Dawson said Muhammad where she was saying she's checking for pricing power among a lot of companies and they're going to be reporting earnings if they don't have that much pricing power that's great news for disinflation that's very bad news for their bottom line in terms of just their margins how much is this sweet spot for disinflation not necessarily a goldilock spot for a lot of the stocks that are getting bid up simply because it means margin compression down the line oh and you're seeing it I mean you know my big theme for this year is dispersion and just look today we've realizing that not All Tech is Tech and not all luxury is luxury that is what the results are telling you between Intel um on the one hand for Tech and on the other hand um for lvmh what you're seeing is growing dispersion and and some companies will have pricing power others will not and we are going to see this dispersion now the market right now is betting on a very aggressive rate cycle allowing for everything to go up because that is the experience since the global financial crisis as long as the FED loosens everybody benefits I think this time around we're going to see a lot more dispersion than we've seen before Deutsche Bank says we'll get a reality check later this year they're looking for say 10% downside on the S&P 500 it's not particularly unusual are you expecting that kind of reality check Muhammad anytime soon for markets given where stocks are at alltime High High spreads Global Credit spreads incredibly tight you know John I'm I'm not in the business of predicting um whether it happens and when it happens um and where people have been wrong in the past including last year is ignoring the technicals and the technicals right now are incredibly favorable so the the big question for me is what breaks favorable technical by that I mean there's still money in the sideline that can be put to work so dips will be viewed as buying opportunities for while L John the thing I worry about most is the sense that growth is going to disappoint with a downward risk the balance of risk on the downside this comes against the universal romance with the softest of all soft landing and then secondly a recognition that the FED is not going to validate what's being priced in right now in terms of cuts chairman P next week what kind of message you expecting the one we heard from Williams a few days after he spoke in December or the one we heard from pal at the December news conference or the one we'll hear at the beginning of the press conference versus the one we'll hear at the end of the press conference I don't know true it's been confusing sorry it's been confusing it has been confusing part of that is that this is a confusing time um you know people that I talk to privately expectations John are all over the place that people who think they won't stop they won't cut r until the summer and then we'll get 75 basis points that people who think they'll start in March and they'll they'll they'll frontload it because of the elections there people who think like me that they're likely to wait until nearer much nearer to the summer and then start with 25 basis points expectations are all over and what's really interesting is that forward guidance have lost has lost its power the FED has been very clear in terms of its forward guidance and the market is saying yeah sure but I'm not going to listen to you that's that's really problematic you said you're not in the business of predicting the future can I just jump in and get you to predict the future when's that First Rate cut coming Muhammad my my own gut feeling is that it will come in the beginning of the summer so call it June maybe July and it will be 25 basis points and not only do I think that that's what's going to happen I think that that's what should happen Okay Muhammad appreciate your time today this morning thank you sir as always Muhammad Al Erin of Bloomberg opinion and Queens College Cambridge
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