저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준이 인플레이션을 용인할 수밖에 없어 달러는 크게 하락하고 금·은은 현재 가격이 지나치게 낮으며, 채권·주식은 고평가되어 있다는 주장. 채권·금리: 국채 금리(30년물 3.4% 언급)는 인플레이션이 일시적이라는 전제를 반영하지만 실제로는 훨씬 높아야 하며, 채권 가격은 과도하게 높다고 봄. 금리 상승 방향을 전제로 한 발언. 달러·환율: 미 달러는 구매력 상실로 지나치게 고평가되어 있으며, 환율은 현재보다 훨씬 낮아져야 한다고 주장. 기축통화 지위를 잃을 가능성도 제기. 금·은: 현재 금 가격(약 1800달러)은 인플레이션이 없는 세계를 전제로 한 것이라 지나치게 낮으며, 인플레이션 심화 시 금 5000~10000달러까지 상승 가능. 금광 기업은 채굴 원가 대비 가치가 재평가되어 큰 수익 기회가 있다고 봄(매수 관점). 주식: 미국 주식은 밸류에이션(PER 등)이 너무 높아 고평가. 소비재 중 임의소비(사치재)는 인플레이션과 금리 상승으로 타격이 예상되어 회피 권고, 필수재·배당주·가격결정력이 있는 기업 선호. 해외(특히 신흥국) 가치주에 투자 권고, 신흥국 펀드 및 통화 강세 기대. 리스크·조건: 연준의 금리 인상이 주식·부동산 시장 붕괴나 금융위기를 유발할 수 있고, 결국 연준이 피벗(금리 인하)할 것으로 예상. 투자자가 인플레 지표에 대해 채권 매도·달러 매도·금 매수로 반응할 때 붕괴가 시작된다는 신호로 제시. 다만 그 신호를 기다리지 않고 미리 포지션을 잡는 것이 더 나을 수 있다고 봄. 출연자 전망: 10년 넘게 이 시나리오를 준비해 왔으며, 붕괴는 예상보다 긴 시간축에서 전개 중이라는 견해. 붕괴가 클수록 버블 반대 베팅 수익도 커진다고 주장.
다듬은 글
bonds are woefully mispriced yields need to be much higher prices need to be much lower stocks are overpriced uh their multiples are too high the U.S dollar is dramatically overpriced because it's going to lose a tremendous amount of its purchasing power over time and therefore it should have a much lower exchange rate than the one it has right now it also means that gold and silver prices are much too low because right now gold is priced for a world where there is no inflation where inflation has been vanquished by a a a a a a tough Federal Reserve that is committed to ridding the economy of inflation when the markets realize that that's not the case that the FED is going to choose inflation as the Lesser evil because that's the choice do we have a massive economic collapse financial crisis depression waves of defaults and bankruptcies or do we tolerate higher and inflation the FED already made that deal with the devil and it's going to keep its commitments we're going to have higher inflation the markets just need to come to terms with that and price it into assets and of course it also means a huge decline in the American standard of living because I think the recognition of this reality is going to be the final now in the Dollar's coffin it's going to include cause it to lose its status as the world's Reserve currency and so Americans are not going to be able to exchange the money that we print for the goods everybody else produces we're going to have to live within our means and those means have been greatly diminished during the years that we've been able to run these massive trade deficits and Outsource all of our manufacturing we've gotten a small taste of those Supply Channel bottlenecks recently well is we're going to get a full uh helping of it later once the dollar plunges and we really really see how much we depend on Global Supply chains but again to wrap this up when it comes to individual investors right we need to take advantage of this situation you know I have been preparing and helping my clients prepare for this for over a decade and the only thing that surprised me is that we've been able to Kick the Can down the road for as many years as we have but everything else that's happened is what I predicted it's just taking place on a longer time scale than I would have imagined over a decade ago but be that as it may we're here and the fact that we were able to Kick the Can down the road for as many years as we did just made the problems much worse the bubble has grown much larger during the years of canned kicking and as a result the collapse is much greater it means that investors stand to lose a lot more purchasing power if they don't understand what's going to happen and modify their portfolios to account for this and it also means that the investors who do make those changes are going to make even greater profits I believe as a result because the bigger the bubble the more air there is to come out and the more air that comes out of the bubble I think the more profits that the people make who bet against that bubble and so that's what we're doing at Europe Pacific Asset Management with our strategies but I think for people who want to speculate and who are willing to assume a higher degree of risk and that's always uh the case when you're investing in gold and silver mining companies I think those assets are among the most mispriced assets in the market um because if inflation drives the price of gold up to 5 000 or 10 000 uh the markets currently assume that the price of gold is going to stay at 1800 or lower into the indefinite future uh I think the markets are wrong but more importantly not only will a much higher price of gold relative to the cost of mining it really help earnings of these gold mining companies but it's going to cause a lot of gold that markets currently assign a zero value to to all of a sudden have incredible value because if a gold mining company has gold and it costs two thousand dollars to get that gold out of the ground and you don't think the price is going above 1800 that gold is worthless it costs more to mine it than you can get by selling it but that whole dynamic changes what if the price of gold goes up to five thousand and the cost of mining it goes up to three thousand you know now you have two thousand dollar value for every ounce in the ground and now that value is now going to be factored in to the price of these stocks so I think you have tremendous opportunity in that segment of the of the market for those of you who don't want to take as much risk I think you can also protect yourself with our other investment strategies uh that invest in value-oriented companies outside the United States companies that pay good dividends companies that sell products and provide services that people need you know inflation is a problem worldwide the FED isn't the only Central Bank that kept interest rates too low or printed too much money so when you own a business you want to own businesses that provide products and services that people need so that you have pricing power to raise your prices as your costs are going up you don't want to be in the business of providing items that people just buy after they finish paying for all the stuff they need you want to sell Necessities not luxuries the discretionary items are the ones that are in trouble because as people pay more money for food or more money for energy and things like that they're going to have to cut back on other things and so you don't necessarily want to own stock in those companies because they're going to be facing a lot of economic headwinds in addition to this higher interest rates and Rising inflation so we are making these calculations when it comes to determining our our allocations and the companies we buy specifically all the companies we're buying are designed to thrive in an environment where the U.S economy is weak where we have stagflation where we have high inflation and a weak economy in the U.S and I believe that when the dollar finally tanks on this reality that is going to set off an economic boom outside the United States particularly in the Emerging Markets because those economies have suffered from an overvalued dollar they are going to experience relief when the dollar is no longer overvalued and in fact I think there's going to be big inflows of capital into these economies that is really going to provide a big boost to their economy and therefore provide a significant increase to the uh asset values in those economies I actually do have an emerging market fund that people can invest in specifically to take advantage of the repricing of Emerging Market assets not just the stocks but the currencies that those stocks are denominated because as the US dollar Falls I think it's the currencies of those countries that are going to ride but the important part is when is this Insanity going to end when are investors going to wake up and stop selling gold every time inflation is hotter than expected and buying the dollar every time inflation is hotter than expected because inflation is going to keep getting worse and so investors can't keep buying dollars and selling gold because inflation keeps getting worse they'll only do that so long as they think higher inflation now guarantees lower inflation in the future because they believe that high inflation is going to force the fed's hand and of course that is exactly what the markets believe because there is no other reason for an investor to accept a 3.4 percent yield on a 30-year U.S treasury bond you would only accept that yield if you are convinced that the eight percent inflation that we're experiencing now is indeed transitory maybe it's a little less transitory than the FED initially claimed but you still have to think it's pretty damn transitory to accept a 3.4 percent yield for the next 30 Years and you also have to assume that the FED is going to succeed in getting rid of inflation and returning it to two percent or lower if you are going to be selling gold into Rising inflation after all gold is an inflation hedge and if investors expect more inflation they're going to hedge with gold and if you expect inflation to continue gold is going to Discount that future inflation into the present and it's going to be reflect acted in the current price of gold so today no matter how much bad news on inflation the markets get investors don't expect it to continue so when are those expectations going to change how many more months can the CPI come out hotter than expected and investors still believe that inflation is going to go away how many more rate hikes do we need that are ineffective at reducing inflation before investors figure out that it's not going to work and of course how many rate hikes will the FED be able to get away with without crashing the stock market without crashing the real estate market without causing a financial crisis and to the extent that the FED pushes that envelope Until It Breaks if they keep hiking rates until that happens then what will the FED continue to Hype rates if all that bad stuff happens or if the FED begins to suspect that something that dire is around the corner will it try to take action to prevent it from happening in in other words will the FED pivot because it anticipates the next Crisis or will it pivot in response to the next Crisis that it failed to anticipate but as long as it pivots at all that means inflation is going to run out of control and if it is then the dollar needs to go way down and gold needs to go way up so how many more bad inflation numbers is it going to take my personal opinion on this is not that many more when you see the markets respond to worse than expected inflation news by selling 30-year treasuries by selling dollars and by buying gold you will know the party is over and it collapse is eminent now I wouldn't necessarily wait for that signal before taking a position in fact I haven't waited for that signal because I think it's possible by the time we get that signal it could be a much worse entry position than the one we have right now because the markets can start and anticipating that signal before we actually get it I know it's going to happen eventually but when it does happen that's when you'll know the end has finally begun
Comments 0