저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: Ackman은 단기 시장 예측은 어리석다고 보지만, 2023년 후반 금리 인상 종료 기대로 주식 매수 기회가 올 수 있다고 본다. 금리 전망: 연준이 단기 기준금리를 약 5%까지 올리고 2023년 대부분 그 수준을 유지할 것으로 봤다. 인플레이션 전망: 연준이 물가를 2%로 낮추려면 일자리를 크게 파괴하는 깊은 경기침체가 필요하며, 3% 내외 인플레이션을 용인하는 것이 장기적으로 더 나은 전략이라고 주장했다. 투자 시점 전망: 인플레이션이 빠르게 둔화되고 연준이 금리 인하를 준비하면 그것이 주식 매수 기회가 될 것이며, 2023년 후반이 그 촉매가 될 수 있다고 봤다. 음악 산업 사례: 디지털화로 음악 산업이 한때 붕괴 위기였으나 Spotify 등 스트리밍으로 회복했고, 스트리밍이 음악 산업 매출의 절반 이상을 차지한다고 설명했다. 유니버설뮤직(글로벌 점유율 약 1/3)을 대표 보유 종목으로 언급했다. 경기침체 영향: 부채가 많고 경기에 민감한 기업이 아니라면 경기침체가 기업 가치를 크게 훼손하지 않으며, 강한 자본구조의 기업은 일시적 매출 감소에도 회복한다고 봤다. 보유 종목: 힐튼, 유니버설뮤직 등 내구성 높은 기업을 강조했다. 치폴레는 대형 투자 종목으로 언급됐다. 헤지 전략: 금리 상승에 베팅한 스왑션 등 헤지 포지션으로 투자금 약 4억 달러가 약 28억 달러 수준으로 불어났다고 밝혔다. 퍼싱스퀘어홀딩스: 연초 대비 약 2% 하락해 S&P500(-17%), 나스닥(-28%)보다 선방했으나, 순자산가치 대비 31% 할인 거래 중이다. 리스크: 단기 시장 방향 예측은 하지 않는다고 명시했으며, 인플레이션이 예상보다 끈질기면 금리 고점이 길어질 수 있다.
다듬은 글
a world in which rates did not rise is probably a world in which our stocks would have done very very well so it had the has the benefit of cushioning the downside I think the discount is largely driven by the relatively small Universe of people uh relative to kind of General investors in the market that buy closed-in funds and as we're the second largest closing fund of the World by nav and it it uh the universe of people who can own us therefore and we've also outperformed dramatically in the last you know five years and so we've outgrown in some sense the traditional buyers of closed end funds star investor Bill Ackman gazes into his crystal ball and makes some predictions about inflation interest rates and Federal Reserve policy he is the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management a company that manages hedge funds before proceeding further in this video please make sure to click on the Subscribe button below to stay updated with our latest content Bill Ackman believes markets could have a better time in 2023 bill says predicting the market in the short term is a sucker's game but believes the later part of next year could be when stocks pick up in a series of exclusive interviews with shares editor Daniel coatsworth Ackman outlined his belief U.S interest rates could hit 5 in the short term and stay around that level for most of 2023.
I think Federal Reserve I think people understand is going to continue to raise rates you know getting to something approaching a five percent uh short-term fed funds rate and that rate staying there for an extended period of time yeah I.E probably most of 2023 so there's not any subsidy if you will to the markets coming from the Federal Reserve is basically the opposite and that of course will also be it's already having the effect of restraining the economy and hopefully inflation I think once the market starts to see inflation taper and if taper you know if inflation tape is pretty quickly they can begin to predict that the Federal Reserve is going to take a its foot off the brake a bit and perhaps start taking down rates I think that will be a perceived and probably likely buying opportunity so I think that's a potential Catalyst more toward the end of 2023 for markets to you know people starting to get excited about owning equities again Ackman added that he didn't think the FED could get inflation backed at two percent without a deep job destroying recession he said that accepting inflation around three percent is a better strategy for a strong economy and job growth over the long term Bill Ackman says digitization of music made it easy to pirate and more convenient to steal music than go to a record store and buy music that almost killed the industry according to Ackman Spotify launched and that led to the recovery of the music business and streaming has become more than half of Music Industry revenues Universal is the dominant player with a third of Global Music market share the value of a business unless it's a highly levered uh very economically sensitive company is not particularly affected by the ons you know uh by the event of a recession right if you own it the value of a stock right the value of an interest in a company is the present value of the cash that business generates over its life and if it's a business that should exist forever I'll pick Hilton for example um though we can expect that over you know in in past history there's been a recession every seven or eight years let's assume the future is the same and there's a recession every seven or eight years going forward it doesn't that's kind of factored into the value of the of the Enterprise the only reason why a recession creates it destroys value is if you have a company that is highly levered and then if revenues decline you know there are cash flow goes negative and they kind of they can't support their debt and they go bankrupt right but if you own a very well capitalized business I don't think a recession has a meaningful impact it might affect that Year's revenues and cash flow but that's just one line item and a long spreadsheet of cash flows that you discount if you will into the present but the businesses we own Universal Music being the largest one uh and a good example you know people are not going to you think cancel their apple music subscription because we're in recession it's the cheapest form of entertainment it's you know 10 cent an hour or something like this uh compare that to a movie or a video game and you pay a lot more Bill ackman's Pershing Square is Chipotle Mexican Grill largest investor with a 1.6 billion dollar state that comes via 1.1 million shares Pershing Square Holdings instead took a direct stake in Universal Music and it is this investment which has helped to revive the investment company's share price in recent months Ackman insists that predicting short-term Market movements is a Fool's game and is not something we do but ultimately he says Pershing Square Holdings core strategy is about owning super durable undisruptible companies according to Bill Ackman Pershing Square Holdings has held up relatively well with a mere two percent year-to-date share price decline versus a 17 decline in the S and P 500 and a 28 slump in the NASDAQ however its shares trade on a 31 discount to net asset value much to the frustration of the manager so we've actually made a lot of money on our Hedges so we we spend a small amount of capital on investments that have option like payoffs and many of them are actually options themselves not inherently particularly complicated but a a bet on interest rates Rising for example you know so a couple of those bets have led to you know large profits for us this year we've invested a little under 400 million and that's turned into about 2.8 billion system-wide now some of that profit was realized unrealized last year accrued into our results last year are in the bulk of it has been realized this year and those have been some very successful Hedges and we're doing more of that you know it's something we've done over a long period of time opportunistically and the I would say inherent volatility uncertainty the world has made a number of those Hedges both good Hedges and also interesting Standalone Investments so anytime you can hedge the portfolio so for example we thought race would rise a lot and we hedged rates by buying so-called interest rate swaptions um you know it helped offset some of the mark to Market losses we've suffered on the long side of the portfolio but it's also on a standalone basis of good investment and those are the best Hedges ones where you don't mind making a big profit in the Hedge even if your stocks go down because we think our the businesses we own we'll we'll do fine and recover over time and in fact our companies have actually reported quite good results and so what we've seen is more a reduction in the multiples people are paying for businesses really no real impact on the underlying companies themselves for at least for our portfolio during his recent interview with AJ Bell Bill Ackman explained why investors should focus on super durable growth companies in this market what is your outlook for 2023 and the ongoing inflation and recession in Market let us know in the comment section below our conversation for 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