Wharton's Jeremy Siegel: September jobs report was 'a wonderful report' for Fed Chairman Warsh

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고용보고서는 헤드라인은 약했으나 노동참가율·근로시간 증가 등 내부 강세가 있어 워시 연준 의장에게 10월 금리 동결 명분을 준다고 봄. 금리 상승은 인플레이션이 아닌 성장 기대 때문이며, 유가 90달러 이하 유지 시 4분기까지 랠리 지속 가능. 10년 금리는 연말 4.75%까지 내려갈 수 있으나 5% 이상 유지 가능성이 크다고 봄. AI·Mag7 주도 랠리는 식었고 고금리는 고마진 빅테크 외 섹터(주택 등)를 압박. 광범위 지수, 특히 유럽(PER 14-15)과 일본 TOPIX(PER 16)를 선호하며 소형주는 금리·유가 부담으로 열위 전망.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Jeremy Siegel is t the University of Pennsylvania and Chief Economist at WisdomTree. Does Friday's employment report make you optimistic or pessimistic? Good morning, Andrew. I think this was just a great report for Kevin Warsh. A report in the style of " Goldilocks". Let me explain why. The main statistical indicators turned out to be weak.

02. You know, the unemployment rate went up a few basis points, which rounded it up to one tenth. Employment figures were weak, but there was a lot of strength hiding beneath the surface. I mean the increase in labor force participation rates , which, as you know, has been declining for a long time. We also got an increase in the length of the workweek , which had previously also been reduced.

03. So, the headline numbers give Orsha a reason to wait until October. As you know, there are 6 days left until the midterm elections. I do n't think he wants to raise the stakes. He wants to be, quote, "neutral" at that time. And I believe that gave him the green light for such a decision. If we talk about the period from now until Christmas, and look at the current state of affairs.

04. We expect a big Anthropic IPO in mid- November. Do you see this as a market with significant growth? Do you see a stable market? What does this look like in your opinion? I was very impressed that despite the huge increase in interest rates, the market held up. And I believe that the increase in interest rates is not due to inflation or the budget deficit.

05. I think this is due to growing expectations for economic development. And you know, that's why stocks hold up. So, if we can keep the oil price at $90 or below. And, you know, I warned that Iran wants to escalate the situation before the elections and may carry out certain attacks. But if we can keep oil below 90, I think this rally could continue into the fourth quarter, because the third quarter earnings year-over-year are definitely going to be extremely good .

06. But if you look at interest rates, what is your forecast for their level, say, at Christmas at the current pace? Well, I know Tom Lee said before that maybe they'll go down to 4 and 3/4, of course it's possible, but looking at the world, it's really exciting. Every major developed market has seen a sharp rise in interest rates, and all of this has come at the expense of real interest rates.

07. You know, my long-term inflation expectations are not increasing at all . So, you know, real rates are driven by many forces, but one of them is economic growth around the world. So, you know, my feeling is that we can stay in the over 5% range for the rest of the year. And why, in your opinion, did this slow down the processes?

08. Because I hear conversations all the time, especially among people in private equity, who obviously have extraordinary debt to support their institutions. A number of large public companies that also often look like private equity style companies. And, of course, the development of data centers is also often financed through debt.

09. Well, I mean, and you gave the reason. I mean, they're so powerful and they generate such huge profits for ISPs, hyperscalers, and everyone else. And yes, the rest of the market, you know, is not showing itself in the best way. It was, you know, a kind of rally for artificial intelligence, or SI, if you want to call it that .

10. I mean all that expansion that we saw in the first half of the year, which I think peaked when we called " Leopold's bottom" with the Ash and Brenner situational awareness fund. It has practically disappeared. I mean, we haven't returned to the historical relative highs that AI stocks and Mag 7 stocks reached last October and November.

11. But we have moved back significantly, and because they have provided this strength, it means they are keeping interest rates high . They provide profits, and that puts pressure on the residential sector, on everything that is sensitive to interest rates, and on everything that does not have the 40-50% margins that hyperscalers have - going down to 8-9-10% will lead to a squeeze on those sectors.

12. But you know, they are only one part of the entire stock market. You are a fan of indexes. If you were buying an index now, would you buy a broad index or a very narrow one, and if so, which one? I'm a big supporter of broad indices, and despite the problems in Europe, you know, they have a P/E ratio of 15-14, which means they don't have to grow quickly to make you a profit.

13. I mean, Japan has done very well this year, and you can look at the Topix index. It has a P/E ratio of 16. I know that small-cap stocks are undervalued and they are underperforming because I think they are being squeezed by higher interest rates and higher oil prices. So they have a relative disadvantage, but in the long run, you know, I still believe that diversification will pay off for the investor and provide them with greater security than favoring one sector over another.