저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 수요가 공급을 크게 앞서고(15:1) 인프라 buildout은 3년차로 8~10년 지속될 것. 엔비디아는 최근 실적 기대치 대비 조정을 겪었으나 펀더멘털은 견고하며 forward PE 20배로 역사적 저평가. 빅테크 capex는 가속 중이며 거시 둔화에도 줄지 않을 것. 엔비디아 시총 4~5조달러 가능성을 제시. 자율로봇·물리적 AI로 확장 강조.
다듬은 글
Right now we believe 15 to1 demand the supply you know in terms of what we see of Blackwell it's about not just things like in terms of Ruben others physical AI autonomous robotics and I hear everything that Josh is saying but in my opinion we are in year three of an 8 to 10year buildout for the AI revolution.
If you think we've already seen the peak of AI think again. Right now demand for AI chips is outpacing supply by a staggering 15 to1. AI isn't just about large language models anymore. It's evolving into something far bigger. With NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture, we're moving beyond just AI powered software and into physical AI applications.
Think autonomous robotics, edge computing, and nextgen automation. Whether it's cloud computing, autonomous systems, or generative AI, companies can't get enough of the hardware and compute power needed to fuel their AI ambitions. From self-driving cars to AI powered robotics and factories, the future of AI isn't just digital, it's physical.
We're not looking at a short-term AI hype cycle. The investment in AI infrastructure today is setting the foundation for a decade of innovation and economic shifts. All right, so Nvidia shares have now pulled back notably, not as much as other mega cap technology stocks have, but a lot of it was driven by kind of the recent quarterly reports that have come out.
The fundamentals are very much intact. Nobody's going to dispute that. But the question is relative to expectations and that's where Nvidia ran into some problems with its most recent numbers. They're still growing and by a rapid clip. But why are analysts then so much more bullish where they cannot meet exactly or exceed a lot the expectations that are out there.
I think it's a digestion period. I mean I think we go through the next four quarters, you're going to ultimately see I think street numbers are going to come up 15 20% over the next few years. I think buy side definitely is very negative here. But as this all plays out, I think it's a stock that has a two in front of it because the AI revolution remember despite Deep Seek in terms of everything we saw there with some of the Cinderella story in terms of some of the the fears in terms of Nvidia and the chip side.
There's one chip in the world fueling this. It's Nvidia. Nvidia's recent pullback has caught the market's attention. But let's be clear, this isn't a fundamental problem. The AI juggernaut is still growing at an incredible pace. And yet, investor expectations seem to be the biggest hurdle right now.
No one is questioning its dominance in AI chips, but the market is digesting just how explosive that growth has been. Analysts are bullish, but buyside sentiment is cautious, waiting to see how AI spending evolves in the next few quarters. The reality, street estimates could rise by 15 to 20% over the next few years.
The AI story isn't slowing down. Despite some concerns about market saturation and competition, there's still one company leading the AI revolution, and it's Nvidia. While some investors hit the brakes, the big picture hasn't changed. The AI revolution is still in full swing, and Nvidia is the engine driving it forward.
This is the cheapest you have been able to buy Nvidia stock since October of 2022 before the launch of chat GPT which set off the AI era. So Nvidia in the AI era as the leading player in AI has never been a better bargain than it is today. The stock is uh the company has 52% growth expectations for this year.
It's now a 20 forward PE. How insane is this market right now where they would rather buy Walmart at 30 some odd times earnings than this at 20? Walmart if they're lucky might be growing single high single digits this year. I'd say in 25 years doing this it's I can name count the times that have been almost the generational opportunities relative to what the stock's doing.
That's where I think Nvidia is here. think this is a a generational I think because my view is we're going to be talking about Nvidia 4 trillion 5 trillion over the coming years despite near-term you know in terms of political export controls everything else that's where this is going we're talking about two trillion of AI capbacks next three years there's only one red phone that you could call to get those chips it's you want to laugh you know you know what you know what he should announce at uh GTC how about a buyback I think that would probably do more good than any technology okay it's really at this valuation should be shrinking the flow.
For investors who have been waiting for the perfect moment to buy into Nvidia, this might just be it. Right now, Nvidia stock is cheaper than it has been since October 2022 before the launch of Chat GPT ignited the AI revolution. 52% growth expectations are in 2024. Nvidia is still the undisputed leader in AI with demand outpacing supply.
The company is forecasting massive revenue growth. Yet, the market is pricing it at a 20 times forward PE, a valuation that seems almost too good to be true. Investors are willing to buy Walmart at 30 times earnings, while Nvidia, the company fueling AI's $2 trillion capex explosion over the next 3 years, is sitting at 20 times earnings.
That's an absurd disconnect from reality. When it comes to AI chips, there's one phone to call, and it's Nvidia. No other company dominates the sector like Jensen Huang's powerhouse does. Whether the future is $4 trillion or $5 trillion. This isn't just about a short-term rally. It's about where Nvidia is headed.
The AIdriven future means exponential demand for computing power and Nvidia is still at the center of it all. Some are calling this a once- in a generation opportunity and they might just be right. All right. So speaking of the valuation kind of construct, the paradigm that we're in right now, Joe, if you look at the way that it's been described on the forward basis and and the valuation that's out there, there there is a a balancing that's happening right now about whether or not it is the fact that the analyst consensus, the forward earnings expectations for Nvidia are relatively off or whether it's the price that you pay for those earnings that is relatively off.
Do you think though that this is the equilibrium point at which the analysts are more correct when you project earnings out in the next year and is the market valuing those forward projections properly? So unfortunately I have to give you an answer that is is not succinct and it is dependent upon the capex and the question ultimately becomes does the macro environment begin to arrest the capital spending on the bar on the part of those big players and if in fact that unfolds over the coming year then when you think about where Nvidia is I think it could has the potential to cheapen its valuation.
Right now, the debate isn't just about how much Nvidia will grow, but rather how much the market is willing to pay for that growth. Analysts are caught in a tugof-war between forward earnings expectations and the stock's price relative to those earnings. The real wild card here is capital expenditures or capex.
If macroeconomic pressures start to slow down AI spending, then Nvidia's growth could hit some turbulence. But let's be real, AI demand isn't going away. The industry is in the third year of an 8 to 10year AI buildout and every major player is still throwing billions into AI infrastructure. If spending slows, Nvidia's valuation could compress further, making it even more of a bargain.
At the end of the day, this isn't just another tech cycle. This is the AI revolution, and Nvidia is still sitting at the center of it all. All right, Dan, if that is the case, the people who spend the most money with Nvidia are hyperscalers. These are the most ginormous balance sheets in the history of corporate world.
What does the capex picture change by? How can it be affected by a hypothetical weakening macro backdrop? Yeah, and Joe brings up awesome point. I just tell you come back from Asia, it's actually accelerate in terms of we see about 70% of that capback actually accelerating because it's an arms race.
In other words, you have 325 billion that's going to be spent by big tech 100 billion year-over-year. You have you don't even have the sovereigns. You don't have the rest of the world. This is something where actually the industry is underestimating capex. And I get the point in terms of worries about macro, I actually see more and more big tech accelerating in terms of because this as this arms race plays out whether it's M&A when we see Alphabet and others, no one is pausing.
They're actually accelerating. And I think that's going to be the key. I think that's something you're gonna hear from Jensen, you know, on stage. Can I say one thing on this really quickly that I think is important? It's not definitely the case that CFOs are going to look at AI related capex as a cost too high in a recession because we're about to have an IPO.
Uh CLA is coming public. CLA fired everybody and they're basically operating customer service on AI. That's the story that they're telling at their road show. This might be like the poster child for how much money a corporation can save in staffing costs using AI. So, it's not a foregone conclusion that a weaker economy necessarily means slashing capex.
They might actually look at this as a way to get through a recession. Forget the doom and gloom scenarios. AI capital expenditures aren't slowing down, they're accelerating. The biggest spenders on Vidia's technology are hyperscalers. Fresh off a trip to Asia, analysts are seeing something striking.
AI spending is actually speeding up. $325 billion. That's how much big tech is expected to invest in AI this year. A 100 billion year-over-year increase. And that number is still rising. Global expansion. This doesn't even account for sovereign nations and corporations outside of the US ramping up their AI investments.
This is an arms race and no one is hitting the brakes. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and other tech titans are all doubling down. Some might assume a weakening economy would lead CFOs to cut capex. But AI isn't a cost, it's a moneysaver. The upcoming CLA IPO is a prime example. They've drastically reduced staffing and are running customer service almost entirely on AI.
AI isn't just an investment, it's a survival strategy. Companies may actually increase spending on AI to drive efficiency and cut costs during economic slowdowns. I would say that when you're if you're driving down the floor to go to the final four, this is the jump shot you take 100 times out of 100 times buying Nvidia in this market at this multiple.
And I'll give you two reasons. Really, you from the macro standpoint, the survey data has eroded very quickly, historically quick. And that's the uncertainty that that's within the market right now. That's the uncertainty that the administration's brought. But I think it's been so quick of an erosion that that it's flushed out.
And I and you're starting to see that. I think Atlanta Fed GDP is going to swing back for a number of reasons. And the other side is there's a bigger story. Yes, there's competition with the LLMs and you're going to see new chap GPTs drop. It's going to be deepseec. There's going to be another instance, but it's bigger here where you're the robotic story.
You're also looking at the software. There's no second. This is this is their competitive advantage. That's their mode. So, this is where I want to buy. If you're driving down the court with the game on the line, this is the shot you take every single time. Buying Nvidia at this valuation in this market, it's a no-brainer.
The macro setup is flushing out weakness. Market uncertainty has been eroding at record speed historically fast. Yes, volatility has been high, but it's already flushed out much of the downside risk. Atlanta Fed GDP is likely to swing back, bringing renewed confidence in the market. AI is bigger than just LLMs and chat GPT.
The future is autonomous robotics, AIdriven software, and nextG computing. Competition exists, but there's no true second place. Nvidia remains the dominant force. As AI continues to expand beyond just chat bots and into automation, robotics, and enterprise solutions, Nvidia is positioned to lead every step of the way.
All right. All right, guys. We're going to This is Nvidia conversation can go on forever. Let's move on here. Now, by the way, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will be sitting down exclusively with our own Jim Kramer tomorrow at 10:15 a.m. Eastern time. two dynamics is happening at the same time. The first dynamic is that the vast majority of that growth is likely to be accelerated.
Meaning we've known for some time that general purpose computing has run out of course run its course and that we need a new computing approach. And the world is going through a platform shift from handcoded software running on general purpose computers to machine learning software running on accelerators and GPUs.
This way of doing computation is at this point past this tipping point and we are now seeing the inflection point happening the inflection happening in the world's data center buildouts. So the first thing is a transition in the way we do computing. Second is an increase in recognition that the future of software requires capital investment.
Now this is a very big idea. Whereas in the past we wrote the software and we ran it on computers in the future the computer is going to generate the tokens for the software. And so the computer has become a generator of tokens, not a retrieval of files. From retrievalbased computing to generativebased computing, from the old way of doing data centers to a new way of building these infrastructure, and I call them AI factories.
They're AI factories because it has one job and one job only. Generating these incredible tokens that we then reconstitute into music, into words, into videos, into research, into chemicals or proteins. We reconstitute it into all kinds of information of different types. So the world is going through a transition in not just the amount of data centers that will be built, but also how it's built.
The conversation around Nvidia and AI could go on forever, but let's cut to the chase. We are witnessing a fundamental shift in computing, and Nvidia is at the epicenter of it all. Oh, and by the way, if you want more insight straight from the source, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will be sitting down exclusively with Jim Kramer tomorrow at 10:15 a.m.
Eastern time. Mark your calendars. For years, we relied on handcoded software running on generalpurpose processors, but that era is now over. The world is shifting to machine learning powered computing running on accelerators and GPUs. This isn't speculation. We've already passed the tipping point. Data centers are undergoing a massive transformation built specifically for AI workloads.
The next phase of computing is here faster, more efficient, and fully optimized for AI. This is the big idea in the future. Software won't be written. It will be generated. Instead of computers retrieving files, they will generate AIdriven tokens that become text, music, videos, research, chemicals, proteins, you name it.
This new model demands a completely different kind of data center. Not just more data centers, but AI powered factories built for one purpose, generating intelligence. ey .
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