저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적은 딥시크 우려가 기우였음을 보여주며 AI 혁명이 다음 성장 단계에 진입했다는 근거다. 분기 매출은 110억 달러로 과거 전망 30~40억 달러를 크게 웃돌았고 향후 분기 150~200억 달러로 성장할 것으로 본다. 블랙웰 출하 가속에 따른 마진 훼손은 단기 비용일 뿐이며 수요는 칩 1개당 구매자 15명 수준으로 강하다. 목표가 175달러(기본), 200달러(강세) 제시. 딥시크는 엔비디아에 오히려 호재이며 AI 파급효과로 기술주 강세장이 이어질 것이라 주장. 현 주가 약 130달러 부근에서 밸류에이션이 매력적이며 자사주 매입과 3월 개발자 컨퍼런스를 감안하면 매수 기회로 본다.
다듬은 글
right but if you look at fundamentally what happened here I I think this was just a robust quarter that shows that a lot of the deep seek worries that was smoke no fire I mean these are numbers that show this AI Revolution is actually just hitting its next gear of growth and there's only one chip fueling this and and it's the person wearing the black leather jackets Godfather V Jensen Nvidia you know it's interesting uh speaking of Jensen Wang I think it was almost a year ago when Nvidia unveiled their next generation of chips uh Blackwell uh with a lot of fanfare uh and there was a very aggressive Push by Nvidia to get that product into the hands of customers because it's sophisticated it's powerful uh for the Wall Street fans it's very expensive and there's a lot of demand but I think it seemed like the takeaway from last night was to get that product into the hands of customers quickly and efficiently came at a short term cost and nvidia's message last night was yes that hurts our profit margins in the short term but people love the product demand is great and over time we'll make up whatever costs we had to incur in the short term nvidia's latest quarter highlights the ongoing strength of the AI Revolution with nvidia's powerful chips driving this growth despite concerns about deep sea risks the results proed those worries unfounded nvidia's aggressive push to deliver its Advanced Blackwell ships quickly came with short-term costs impacting margins however strong demand and customer enthusiasm signal that these Investments are likely to pay off in the long run reinforcing nvidia's dominance in the AI chip Market was that your takeaway oh yeah I mean and there's a great summary but let's put this in perspective when if you go back two quarters ago the view is this would be 3 to four billion a quarter it it was 11 billion and ultimately I think it's going to be on a trajectory to 15 to 20 billion per quarter so I think it just shows in terms of any sort of the margin deterioration that's something that's just going to continue to ramp and that's why I think 175 base case $200 bull case in terms of Nvidia and look the the haters hate they're always going to try to P CS they they've missed every transformational Tech stock the last 20 years I believe they'll Miss Nvidia and we believe in the rise to 4 trillion Mark cap when you talk about a wed Bush Target price in the range of 175 and you're alluding to maybe even more potential upside for a stock that begins the trading day in around 13 what are the things you have to watch for in between the stock uh in your opinion getting to that level could we see more volatility look of course you can see volatility and and you look at export controls you know every five minutes something coming out of trump in terms of tariffs there's going to be a lot of noise you got to see through it you know you'll have the big Conference of India had next month and look 15 to 1's demand to supply in in terms of these chips and when it comes to deep seek and some of the others I view that deep seek is actually bullish for NV video in the broader AI Revolution John like it's about the multiply it's not just about video for every dollar spend on video chip there's $8 to $10 multiply across the rest of the tech that's why this is going to be a tech bll Market going forward video's growth continues to defy expectations with quarterly Revenue surging to 11 billion far exceeding earlier projections of3 to4 billion analysts now predict nvidia's Revenue could climb to 15 to20 billion per quarter reinforcing its dominance in the AI sector despite concerns about volatility and geopolitical risks nvidia's strong demand estimated at 15 buyers for every available chip underscores its Market strength additionally nvidia's influence extends far beyond its own sales driving $8 to $10 in Tech Investments for every dollar SP spent on its products fueling a broader Tech bull market Nvidia now below deep sea glow suggesting that that January 27th selloff might have been more than just a knee-jerk reaction potentially more of a structural shift now concerns of course are piling up you've been talking about it all morning there's CeX and efficiency questions the threat of an expanded chip ban and now of course these new China tariffs now Nvidia is the poster child of this unwind but it is hitting Ai and Tech more broadly the SMH semi ETF down nearly 10% this year and all all of the Mega caps except for meta are underwater now here at the Palace Hotel the CFOs of alphabet and Microsoft they're set to speak today Nvidia CFO call it Crest she's set to speak tomorrow the stakes really couldn't be higher especially given the sell-off and concerns around the AI trade and tariffs key question will they hedge or temper language around capex as tariffs introduce new uncertainty some investors like Dan NS in your interview a few moments ago they have expressed skep ISM around these huge ramps and spend saying that some level of digestion is needed so could any of these CFOs allude to that in any way Josh KY mentioned Nvidia being hired today you know that's been a pain Point nvidia's recent dip below its previous DEC low suggests more than just a brief selloff it could signal a broader shift in Market sentiment Rising concerns around capex efficiency potential chip bands and New China tariffs are fueling uncertainty Nvidia as the face of the I boom is feeling the pressure with the semiconductor sector broadly impacted as well with key CFOs from alphabet Microsoft Nvidia set to speak investors are watching closely for signs of caution or reduced spending forecasts any hints of a Slowdown could weigh heavily on the AI trade um within the market Bernstein Stacy rascon Says valuations are looking increasingly attractive they suggest that that stock has done historically well if you buy it at 25 times or lower it's obviously had a huge pullback we've suggested you're not really going to get a better feeling Market until the likes of Nvidia looks a little better in its own right I mean there yeah there are there's so many green stocks right now that we should be talking to like um eBay alphabet McDonald's like these are pretty big market caps but Scott you're right to that point nothing is big enough to offset Nvidia there's no 10 stocks that are big enough uh to offset Nvidia so I do think it's important for uh maybe not necessarily overall volatility but just for the indices to kind of find some support you you kind of have to have a name like Nvidia bottom and go green look 26 times forward earnings with a 50% growth rate a buyback um and arguably some of the best news flow of the year out of any stock still ahead including a huge develop ERS conference in March why wouldn't this stock be a buy here so I I agree with that that sentiment and uh you know if if I'm out looking for things to do and I haven't done this yet I would have it on the list nvidia's recent pullback has made its valuation increasingly attractive with analysts noting the stock historically performs well when trading at 25 times earnings or lower despite positive movement in other major stocks like eBay alphabet and McDonald's nvidia's sheer size makes it crucial for broader Market stability with strong growth forecasts a stock buyback and upcoming events like nvidia's developers conference many see this as a key opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the AI boom now Nvidia to your point it stock is on a wild ride trading at a market multiple that almost matches the S&P 500 so when normally it should be trading at a premium because it's a Growth Company still and that raises the question is NVIDIA undervalued some are saying yes or is the market headed for a fall you know for that market multiple to be uh lower there's still a lot of regulatory risk for NVIDIA AI diffusion rules restricting chip exports to certain countries that would come into play this may the possibility of fur the China band specifically the h20s we talked about that yesterday but just it is a big portion of their business to China off the Q4 earnings that's not justified right like we're talking about some of those names like Nvidia like oh maybe they grow earnings only 65% of 70 I mean come on no and they're like oh yeah that needs to be 30% down really on that kind of news no that's that's way way way overdone to me so even in the max 7 even in Tech and then overall then obviously in the US I think you want to buy that as well it's not a point of buying Europe over the US it's buying Europe and China and the US it's actually really broadly where things are still pretty all right we will leave it there that's I I think today when you look at the rally that you had in Nvidia yeah it was just pressed down it was down nearly 30% from those recent highs it was a crowded trade people got out of it and people are going to be looking for opportunities to get back into both of them and I think we were correctly cautious since that January engulfing pattern across the desk and that proved to be right and today's the first day in terms of price action you can actually make a case you can play it from the long side I'm not saying it's going straight up from here but you know that 110 low to your earlier point that was a low that we saw basically back in September on heavy volume which is a good sign so for me for the first time in a while Nvidia actually looks nice for a trade because we have export restrictions on quite a few countries but apparently not Singapore yeah and I I I was just there on Friday right so so I I could tell you the sense is that these export controls it's not going to be really constrained to ultimately Singapore and I think the fear here and I think you're seeing on the Nvidia selloff is that this is going to be a huge ripple effect it's going to be harder and harder to get those chips that's something even though there's the China piece it could have a much broader impact across the region I do I think Bark's worse than to bite I mean as someone you know in Asia for two weeks I think it's one I get the fears but I don't think this is that's really going to be as much of a restrictive Factor despite everything we saw today do you think it's nvidia's recent decline has sparked debate about whether the stock is now undervalued despite trading at a market multiple similar to the S&P 500 unusual for a Growth Company some argue the drop was overdone regulatory risks like AI diffusion rules and potential chip export banss to China remain a concern however analysts point out that nvidia's earnings growth even at 65 to 70 % is still impressive the recent pullback down nearly 30% from its highs has created a potential buying opportunity as investers look for re-entry points while export concerns persist they may have less impact than feared with regions like Singapore seemingly unaffected deep seek concerns that are spurring this next wave potentially of Regulation and I guess perhaps just as importantly has the train already left the station when you look at homegrown chip development in a place like China look I think deep seek that was a shot across the bow because I think everyone recognized okay they didn't do this in the basement with no chips and it comes down to if they use nextg Nvidia chips what does that mean and I think look the broader fear especially that you see in the Trump Administration is okay we got to restrict it more and more so I think what you're starting to see from an investor perspective is okay what does this mean for NVIDIA second derivatives is this going to crimp the supply chain now we disagree I think when it comes to tariffs we've seen many times this is one it's going to have an impact but I do not believe it's going to have such a pronounced impact that think is being factored in here in terms of supply chain still 15 to1 demand to supply even when it comes to blackw deep sea concerns have heightened regulatory fears especially regarding nvidia's nextg chips potentially fueling advancements in regions like China while the US May tighten restrictions further analysts believe the overall impact on nvidia's supply chain will be limited demand for nvidia's chips remains incredibly strong with 15 buyers for every available chip reinforcing the company's resilience despite geopolitical pressures
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