저자: MariusKonichine · 외국인
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넷플릭스 하락 사례로 본 성장주 밸류에이션 리스크와 테슬라 경고 빌 애크먼의 넷플릭스 투자 실패(약 4억 달러 손실)를 계기로, 성장 둔화 시 고평가 성장주가 급락하는 구조를 설명하는 영상이다. 애크먼 사례: 구독자 증가 둔화 이후 투자했으나 분기 구독자 성장이 마이너스로 전환되며 주가가 급락했고, 그는 손절했다. 발표자는 그의 판단 자체를 비난하지 않는다. 넷플릭스 밸류에이션: 팬데믹 중 주가가 계속 상승했으나 PER 60~90배까지 치솟았다. 성장 둔화 한 번에 주가가 분기 중 약 20% 폭락했고, 현재도 PER 약 20배 수준으로 여전히 비싸다고 본다. 발표자의 밸류에이션 기준: 성장 없고 감소도 없는 기업은 순이익의 약 10배, 성장하는 기업은 성장률에 따라 그 이상을 허용한다. 이 기준으로 보면 넷플릭스는 여전히 고평가이며 발표자 본인은 주가가 절반 이상 떨어지기 전에는 관심이 없다고 밝혔다. 투자자 유형: 성장 투자자는 가격을 가리지 않고 매수하고, 가치 투자자는 하락 후 진입한다. 가치 투자자조차 넷플릭스 가치를 가늠하지 못해 이탈하고 있으며, 일부는 성장 재개를 가정하고 베팅 중일 것이라고 추정했다. 테슬라 경고: 시총 약 1조 달러 수준이 과도하다고 보며, 테슬라를 저가 자동차 회사가 아닌 고가 럭셔리 자동차 회사로 평가한다. 경쟁 심화와 팬층 소진 시 성장이 둔화되고, 고평가 탓에 넷플릭스처럼 큰 폭락이 올 수 있다고 경고했다. 결론: 고평가 종목은 작은 실망에도 크게 무너지므로 밸류에이션에 주의하고 과열 종목을 피하라는 메시지다.
다듬은 글
i created a new verb netflix bill akban got netflixed so please go to the comment below and congratulate me on creating a new verb netflix if you're new to this channel my name is marius konichine i run microcap explosions a website dedicated to microcap stocks which are ignored and underfollowed by the investment industry i also wrote about 10 books on investing one of which is available for a free download at microcapexplosions.com i also created valueinvestinguniversity.com which is a free resource to make you a more intelligent investor how do you lose 400 million dollars in a matter of three months well you put a billion dollars into an investment that declines significantly and that's how you lose 400 million dollars see this is what snowball is all about remember how i said you put a ball out of snow on top of the hill and as it rolls it picks up more and more snow and this is what investing is about that when you only have ten thousand dollars to your name and you double your money you only made ten thousand dollars by when you have a million dollars in the uw money you made a million dollars so a snowball works both ways you can make a lot of money and you can lose a lot of money and in case of bill ackman as you know he invested in netflix after the previous quarter that showed a slowdown in the company's subscriber growth he invested and now the most recent quarter came out and the growth turned negative and then the stock is in a complete freefall and so bill ackman's fund lost about 400 million dollars he got netflix but he cut his losses short very quickly he said i made a mistake i cut the losses and i sell and i'm not here to say whether he did the right thing by selling or whether he was smart or stupid to invest in netflix i'm not here to bash anybody or to say that somebody was dumb or stupid but i find this whole netflix situation pretty fascinating because when the pandemic started netflix was the darling the darling of the pandemic right people are going to be signing up for for netflix because they're stuck at home two weeks later they said people are gonna be signing up for netflix because of the pandemic three weeks later people are gonna be signing up for netflix because of the pandemic and then the stock kept going higher higher higher higher higher and nobody paid attention to anything as to well how much are you paying now for the netflix stock in relation to to revenues oh shut up shut up everybody's going to be signing up for netflix and and the stock just kept going up and up and up and up and then now you know we're behind the pandemic for about two years and then the stock is lower than it was before and now the growth turned negative and if you think about this growth for a second i mean it's not really that surprising i mean i didn't really predict it i thought it was a possibility but like it's not surprising because look when you have so many people signing up for netflix like it's gonna be very difficult to maintain that growth right that's obvious but then you're also gonna have this group of people that are gonna cancel the subscription and the growth might turn negative so now the stock of netflix is absolutely crushing and not because the company is not profitable not because it doesn't have revenues not because it's not a great business only because the growth turned negative and there is now uncertainty uncertainty about is netflix even a growth stock because you see i always say to myself i just made this up is that if a company is not growing stable revenues stable net income i would say it's worth 10 times 10 times net income if it's not growing it's not shrinking it's 10 times now if the company is growing its revenues or bottom line but i'm talking about bottom line though it is worth more than a pe of 10 okay now the faster it grows the more pe i would say it deserves right so netflix was trading was growing right and it was trading for a crazy amount i don't even know crazy 60 80 90 pe right and now at first growth slowed down so there was still growth but it slowed down so then the stock price crashed because obviously it was stretched to the limit that's all you need with these crazy valuations all you need is a little hiccup and then the stock gets destroyed that's why you should pay attention to valuations and just stay away from those companies when they're you know crazy valuations just you know because you see stocks go up taking stairs but they go down taking the elevator so so you don't even have time to get get out of these stocks when you don't pay attention to these things but anyway so so it's crashed like 20 in the prior quarter 20 in one day right just because the growth slowed down so think about this i said if the growth is zero i would put a 10 multiple on it if the growth is negative then i wouldn't even put 10 on it right well now netflix the growth turned negative and then the stock is still trading at 20 times pe so following my you know rule of thumb i wouldn't even pay 20 times for netflix right it would have to get cut in half more than cut in half from the current level for me to get even interested right and probably even then i wouldn't get interested because i have better ideas that i'm interested in but that's besides the point the point is that you see you have different groups of people that are in these stocks you have you know these growth investors that will pay any price and then the people on the bottom or the people that will catch is value investors like because the if the stock goes down low enough eventually the value investors are going to pick it up bill ackman is a value investor and think about this bill ackman walked away from netflix he lost 400 million dollars because he doesn't know how to value it he doesn't know how to value it because he doesn't have the visibility as to you know what netflix revenues are going to do what the net income is going to do so he's just like i'm out because i can't value it so now the next question that you should ask yourself if value investors are walking away how much lower will netflix have to go in order for value investors to get interested and i bet some value investors are already interested why because they probably are making predictions or they're making bets like for example oh you know netflix is still a growth company just because it dipped now the the growth will resume because it did because you know there was so much signing up during covet if it wasn't covered it would still be growing so they're making all kinds of rationalizations or or guesses or projections so some already are interested but it's not super clear as to like okay you know it's growing and i'm gonna pay for this no that's why i don't know like how low netflix can go but there's a lesson here there's a lesson here and i'm gonna keep using that word oh so-and-so got netflix uh and i think that it's a matter of time before tesla get netflix and tesla does need to get netflix because it's the similar situation right now oh the car is nice oh they're selling more cars oh look at this quarter oh so what the the company is valued at one trillion dollars valued it's not worth one trillion dollars the the lunatics are valuing it at a trillion dollars right and you see they're even talking about that tesla is going to sell more cars than toyota right and if you look at the most popular cars the tesla sells they're 66 000 cars right so tesla is more of a luxur luxury car manufacturer than it is an affordable car manufacturer so at what point will there be a slowdown because competition is obviously you know coming in and come on tesla is just a car with a battery right and and and a software so like unless you are you know tesla lover yeah you're gonna buy tesla but for somebody like me i don't care i'll buy whatever i need to and i don't even need an electric car i'm gonna be driving the car that i have and when i have to buy an electric car i'm not attached to tesla i'm going to buy what's the best for my money right and after you run out of the fanboys on tesla or the people that want to flex and show that they have tesla the growth is likely going to slow down but the valuation is stretched so high that it's not going to take much for tesla to get netflix so we'll see but that's it for this video i hope you enjoyed it you know what to do click on the subscribe button notification button leave me a comment and hopefully you like this video thanks for watching
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