저자: AmitKukreja · 외국인
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결론: 발언자는 로쿠(Roku)를 캐시 우드 ARK가 보유하는 이유로 '선형 TV 종말→OTT 광고 이동→로쿠 플랫폼 수익화'를 제시하며 장기적으로 긍정적이지만, 아직 본격 매수는 하지 않았다고 말한다. [시장 배경] 미국 선형 TV 가구수는 2010년 정점(약 1.1억) 이후 하락 중이며, 2025년 약 4,400만으로 48% 감소할 것으로 예상된다고 인용했다. 18~34세는 케이블 해지 의향이 18%로 높다. [광고 시장] 미국 TV 광고 시장은 2021년 약 650억 달러 규모이며, 신문 광고가 2006년 이후 급감한 사례처럼 선형 TV 광고도 2024년경 300~330억 달러 수준으로 줄 것으로 전망했다. 광고 예산이 OTT로 이동할 것이라는 주장이다. [스포츠 변수] 케이블 유지 이유의 60%가 실시간 스포츠인데, MLB(유튜브), NHL(Fubo), 아마존(NFL), 훌루(NBA) 등 스트리밍 플랫폼이 중계권을 확보하면서 이 변수도 해소되는 추세라고 봤다. [로쿠 수익 구조] ① 셋톱박스·로쿠 TV 하드웨어 판매(수익 비중 약 30%, 마진 낮음) ② 로쿠 OS 라이선스 수수료(다른 TV 제조사에 OS 제공, 미국 스마트TV 점유율 약 38%) ③ 앱 결제 수수료 분배(애플 앱스토어 30%와 유사한 구조 언급) ④ 자체 'Roku Channel' 광고 수익(10만 편 이상 콘텐츠, 광고 수익 일부를 파트너와 배분). [주가] 2021년 정점 약 400달러대(발언 기준 '480' 언급)에서 2017년 대비 약 2,000% 상승 후 하락해 200달러 미만으로 내려왔다. 발언자는 펀더멘털이 변하지 않았다고 주장하며, 2021년 성장 둔화(시청시간 약 6%, 계정 가입 약 60% 감소)는 우려 요소로 인정했다. [결론적 전망] 2025년까지 로쿠 가입 가구가 약 2,000만 늘어난다면 하드웨어·라이선스·광고 수익이 함께 늘 수 있다는 장기 시나리오를 제시했다. 단, 본인은 아직 포지션을 잡지 않았고 추가 분석이 필요하다고 명시했다.
다듬은 글
hey everybody welcome back to channel okay roku roku roku roku what the heck does this company do and why is it the like second largest biggest holding in kathy woods arc innovation etf i want to answer this question today because i have been wondering about this question myself i've been seeing in a lot of comments because i obviously do a lot of power to your videos and a lot of people like hey what do you think about teledog what do you think about roku and i'm like well teledoc i kind of understand in terms of it going after the healthcare market and it's telemedicine and everything's going digital and there's like a real big chance for an opportunity for it to explode don't really understand it too much you'd still have to go deeper but roku i never got you know why because i have a roku downstairs and it kind of sucks to be honest like all it does to me is allow me to go on to netflix or like watch youtube from it or something like i i i don't understand what's so special about it other than it says roku in fact i tried to go on the web browser on my roku tv because i wanted to go to an illegal movie website to go watch some movies and on my samsung tv i could go on their web browser through their interface like you know you go on like google chrome on your computer like a smart tv usually has like a web browser where you can click on it and then access the internet and my roku tv didn't have that and i was like this is stupid like like every smart tv is supposed to allow you to connect to the internet not just go through the internet through the selected apps that are given so i was really annoyed at the roku tv and that's why i was also really annoyed because i like kathy i like arc i like disruptive innovation i vibe with the vibes but i don't know how roku is disrupting anything it's disrupting my ability to watch a movie illegally online that's when the magic of twitter started going into this if you're not following me on twitter please follow me there amit is investing there's a lot of fun memes and tweets so if you like the videos there's a lot of fun little jokes i put out uh we get through the pain of the market every single day together uh but i came across a tweet and let's go into my computer right now okay this is a tweet from a arc analyst named nick grouse and i came across this tweet this tweet is from may 8 2020 uh but this like i think it's better sometimes to come across twitter threads which are kind of like articles but they're more easier to consume versus finding articles because it kind of just hits you you're more likely to consume the information it's short it's right to the point and then it gets through the analysis now real quick before we get into this this video is not going to go super super in-depth into everything about roku i have to do a lot more analysis and research and like really try to understand all the fundamentals and their numbers but top level overview which is what i think everyone's wondering about which is like why does kathy like this stupid stock like what is so good about roku tv here's what you need to know for why it matters to summarize both roku and the trade desks q1 earning calls by the way trade desk is a advertising technology platform linear tv is dead what is linear tv linear tv is the stuff you probably grew up with with a channel and you went to the channel and there were ads in between the shows you were watching on the channel through like comcast or whatever that's dead we couldn't agree more we think the number of u.s linear tv households will fall from 86.6 million which is it is right now so roughly 44 million by 2025 a 48 decline so it's like okay before we get into roku this is the first level of uniqueness we need to understand the unique thing that's going on the status quo which is another piece of terminology for the present day moment that we have right now is that in 1970 we had really barely any millions of tvs and then at 2010 we hit a peak of like 110 112 and then it starts to go down this is where we have the social media revolution this is where we have the introduction of youtube and uh all these other apps and netflix and all this stuff where people start cutting the chord and they cut the chords so dramatically look at this from 2020 where we're at around around this area right now down to that from 2010 i mean that's a steep decline if you look at the line uh the slope of the line and then it's gonna project it to be even lower in 2025.
before we move on uh into the into into this thread do you agree with that personally i i think it's hard to disagree right like so the the first point of this thesis is like do you agree that linear tv is gonna die at the level at which it's going to to die and which people are just going to start cutting the cord given the dynamics of how entertainment and media is transforming in the new age i think it's hard to disagree with that in generally so i kind of agree with that uh large projection e-marketer for forecast a four percent decline in linear tv households over the next few years uh trade desk conducted a survey that found that across all households 11 of those who still have a cable plan uh cable plan to cut the cord by the end of the year that number goes to uh 18 for 18 to 34 year olds that makes a lot of sense because 18 to 34 year olds do not sit on a couch and go to a channel to watch tv it just doesn't happen i mean some of you may do that and correct me if i'm wrong but most people that i know at least from the 18 to 34 demographic are hitting netflix or they're hitting youtube right or they're hitting like some other streaming service if they sit down on a couch and actually plan to watch tv it's just not happening at the level of cable tv and channels like it was before the rapid pace of cord cutting will cause a dramatic shift in linear tv ad spend here is where the disruptive innovation is happening the advertising tech money in tv is bonkers the tv advertising market in 2021 was 65 billion dollars that means advertisers spend more than 65 billion bucks to get in front of your eyes in the middle of a show that you are watching on regular cable tv that's going to start transitioning steve loud and roku cfo on last night's call the best analogy for what will happen between linear and ott adspen which is over the top media is what happened to the print business during the great recession that's their argument so look at uh the printed advertising decline from 2006 it was about 80 billion dollars of ad revenue going to print uh tv print advertising so like the new york times wall street journal you look in the newspaper and there's a bunch of ads because people are reading the news well people don't read the news that much anymore people don't really look at the newspapers i mean it happens but not at the level that it was happening obviously in 2006 by 2014 that went down to 30 billion that's a massive decrease in the amount of money that's being spent in print advertising u.s linear tv advertising was at around 70 billion 2016 and it's going down and down and down uh all the way into 2024 this is what it's projected to be around 30 to 33 billion that's going to be pretty big for the companies that innovate in this space print has been seeding the audience significantly into digital media because digital publications have been stealing a lot of those advertising a lot of the advertising that's been going on 2000 to 3000 to 2008 but it took the recession to really reset the investment levels in print it has never recovered so it was already declining from 2000 2008 the recession really hurt it and obviously the recession 2008 2009 is when a lot of digital platforms started uh coming up which is where the advertising dollar started to go now the primary reason we haven't fully seen the cutting of the chord yet and this is a really good point is sports and this probably i think a lot of people can relate to if they're watching or if they if they are watching this video right now that also care about sports according to trade decks 60 of those with cable keep it primarily for live sports now i used to watch live sports now i just got the highlights on youtube it's just the way it operates it's a lot more efficient a lot more easier for me to get the content so so that i can see why why people won't cut their cord however if you've noticed mlb signed with youtube nhl has on hockey on fobo tv amazon has partnered with the nfl uh hulu has partnered with live sports for the nba no cable required so as you can see these major streaming platforms that control the majority of how attention is shifting are just going to get the live sports um ad spend that these technology platforms are going to be able to cut deals with major live tv sports because they have all the money and they have all the attention so they really do have all the leverage here and if major uh live tvs can't go get the same level of audience which means they can't sell the same level of advertising which is how all these tv sports actually make money basketball nfl nhl uh and mlb then they're gonna have to partner with the companies and the tech platforms that actually have the attention now how does roku make money roku generates money in numerous ways one may one method is selling it's set top boxes so like the literally the hardware boxes that you buy which essentially is a a gateway into other platforms so you want to think about the roku box that you buy or the roku tv that you buy as an iphone with apps meaning the roku tv os is an operating system by which all the other platforms are integrated onto its uh operating system so netflix disney plus et cetera they reach audiences because noku roku has such a foothold in the market in terms of you know they've been around since 2002 so and they went public in 2017 so they really spent a long time building out that uh that customer base and because of that so many people have roku tvs and netflix obviously they want to sell a subscription for their content so how do they get access to you they have to be on the roku tv because if you load up the roku tv and amazon prime is there and netflix is not there netflix is screwed because people are going to choose amazon prime people are pretty lazy they choose what's in front of them so roku tv is an operating system the iphone app store is an operating system for developers to build content applications on top of that operating system which is how roku operates these devices are available on their website amazon or walmart roku offers a lot of devices streaming 6 audio bars hdmi enabled devices so their hardware business is doing pretty well and roku offers the devices for close costs ad supported roku has higher margins and it is possibly made for by this over 60 and almost 30 of roku's income now comes from device sales the contribution of less than one percent of the profit is the most significant one roku also has licensing fees they have offered other tv makers the ability to integrate its operating system which is the key value proposition here when it comes to why i think how kathy's thinking of it onto their own devices it is projected that roku enables smart tvs in the united states while claiming market share of 38 in 2020 to take the lead in addition the corporation already holds 31 in canada roku makes money whenever someone activates one of these smart tvs profits from each gadget are stated in the contract between the companies which is not public so they make deals with these companies to create a uh it's to create a contract a licensing fee that when someone signs up for a service via roku's operating service roku gets a piece of that service so if you sign up for a eight dollar subscription to netflix i don't know maybe roku gets like a dollar from that or something just like apple takes thirty percent of all the uh uh app store fee so if you sell an app on the app store for like ten bucks apple gets three bucks out of that because they take 30 because they gave you the traffic in the first place advertising fees roku introduced its own branded channel in 2017 which showcases material from third-party media firms so roku doesn't really make the content they just license the content from third-party media firms um and roku channel offers more than 100 000 movies and tv shows there are more than 100 channels to explore and they fund their operations by displaying ads in between programs as well as during their breaks a share of the advertising revenue is subsequently passed out to their licensed partners the roku channel is now one of the most significant review generating channels the firm has so it's not the hardware that's creating all the money it's not the operating system it's the fact that their advertising business is so intense because of this roku channel this sort of integrated cross-communication platform that they have within their devices that they're really able to make a dent in the advertising market the roku service is also dedicated to delivering reviews the best commercial so the ad quality is decent and enhancing its advertisers advertising partners earnings so where is the disruptive innovation actually coming from the way i'm thinking about it and again i'm going to go deeper in future videos try to understand this a little bit more i ha i haven't started a position in the stock yet even though it's decimated because it hit 400 like uh 80 or something uh at the peak of 2021 which is up 2 000 from 2017 which kathy looked like an absolute genius during the time and now it's come back down but if you think about it nothing has changed right like when it hit 480 and it was up 2 000 probably it was a little bit overvalued everything was overvalued but now it's down to under 200 and it's like well nothing has changed nothing about the macro level dynamics on how people are consuming content as per the linear ad tv stuff that we talked about has changed nothing has changed about live sports going to technology platforms and nothing has changed about roku's business in terms of the devices that they're selling or the operating system or any of the true fundamentals now they did have a decrease in growth in 2021 as per 2020 that happened for every company especially media companies i mean even youtube saw a little bit of decrease of watch time happening on youtube because people started going out more because they had so much money that was saved up and they wanted to have more experiences after after the panda and after the the lockdown stopped so there was there was a decline in the level of viewing that happened at around six percent and there was a decline in the level of accounts that were signing up at around 60 which is a pretty steep decline but that's not a reason for the entire thesis for the investment to go away so to me the thesis for the investment the real innovative part here is that if roku operates as the operating system for hundreds of millions of tvs throughout the entire world and in the united states it's going down as from from 80 million to around 40 million in 2025 in terms of cable if 40 million more tvs go away and there's only 40 million traditional tvs left in 2025 where do those 40 million people get their content from it's gonna have to be from some tv provider right like they're not just gonna be on their computer or their phone they're gonna most households have some type of tv if roku takes up even 50 of that market i mean you're talking about 20 million more households that are accessing roku devices which means a they paid for the device so there was a um there was a there was a there was a purchase fee so there is a hardware fee right there b they signed up for other services through roku's operating system which means there is a profit sharing agreement or a revenue share agreement between roku and the apps on its platform just like we talked about with iphone and app store and apple and app developers for 20 more million households and c there's a ton of content being watched through roku's channels and tvs and and partner uh third-party channels in which the 65 billion dollar advertising market is going to start to transition into where the attention is on tv and if the attention is not on the traditional networks like cbc nbc uh cbs and abc and it's on all these roku channels or these integrated third-party party uh people that have to go through roku where there's a world in which cnn and cbs and abc they have to go through roku because no one's watching it through their traditional cable cores then that means all that ad money is going to go to roku and there's going to be profit sharing agreements and revenue splits in which roku gets a bulk of of that market opportunity if they're able to capitalize on actually getting those 20 30 million households by 2025.
that to me is the big market opportunity here now am i super bullish on it yet no i know i'm a little bit energetic because i'm trying to kind of make the point of why i think kathy's bullish on it but that is a pretty unique thesis and that's a pretty unique thesis if you're betting on an innovative world in which attention is changing this is kathy's bet on where attention is going and if she believes that attention is going in this way backed up by really numbers and research because and that's the thing i really love about their deep dives on these stocks there's a lot of numerical analysis and historical trends to sort of project where the future is going that's where this investment decision ultimately comes from so let me know you guys thoughts i hope that gave a good overview of what's going on i know i didn't get super super deep into the numbers but i wanted to just present a general argument so at least when you think about this in the future or someone asks you about it you're able to say hey this is what roku does this is the market opportunity and this is why kathy and a lot of other people are invested in this stock potentially being the future of ott over the top media uh in in the coming years so thank you guys for watching look forward to your comments i'll see you in the next one
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