저자: AmitKukreja · 외국인
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중국 주식 투자는 도덕적으로 허용된다는 결론이다. 중국 내 인권 문제(위구르 등), 뉴욕증시 상장폐지 움직임, 당국의 기업 통제 등 정치적 우려를 설명한다. 찰리 멍거가 알리바바 지분을 약 3만주에서 60만2천주(약 7,200만 달러)로 늘린 점을 소개하며, 알리바바가 2020년 10월 고점 309달러에서 약 123달러까지 떨어져 저평가됐다고 주장한다. 덩샤오핑의 개혁개방과 시장경제 도입으로 6억 명이 빈곤에서 벗어났다는 배경을 설명하고, 중국 정부가 자본주의를 활용하면서도 공동부유 등을 이유로 통제를 강화하고 있다고 분석한다. 잭 마 실종과 앤트그룹 IPO 중단 등 중국 정부의 기업 규제 사례를 언급한다. 윤리 논리로는 기업과 정부를 분리해 봐야 하며, 아이폰 사례처럼 제품 제공자에게 최종 책임을 묻는 것은 무리라고 주장한다. 공리주의 관점에서 중국 주식 투자는 기업의 힘을 키워 중국 시민의 삶을 개선하는 효과가 있다고 본다. 다만 사업적으로는 상장폐지나 정부 개입 위험 때문에 투자 결정이 어렵다고 인정하며, 본인은 조심스러운 입장이다. 멍거의 발언: 중국 공산당이 지난 30년간 이룬 성과에 놀랐다고 하며, 싱가포르 모델을 베낀 점과 저축률이 높은 빈곤층의 저축이 성장 동력이었다고 평가했다. 결론적으로 중국 투자는 도덕적으로 문제없으나 정치 리스크로 인해 실제 투자에는 신중해야 한다는 메시지이다.
다듬은 글
is it immoral to buy chinese stocks this is such a fascinating question i really wanted to explore today from a business perspective political perspective and obviously philosophical perspective if you don't know by now i am a little bit more philosophical than i am anything else and i really like interrogating the answer these questions for investors i think this is a fundamentally important question to answer and to ask yourself and to interrogate to understand your own investment perspective on if you feel there is a meaningful relationship between morality and ethics in the context of china now why is this question so relevant right now well there's a couple of things that are going on there's some political turmoil going on going on internally in china in terms of how the chinese government is treating a lot of the chinese citizens particularly some of the things that the chinese government has been alleged to be doing with muslims and uyghurs in china it is questioning the authority of how china is morally acting within its own country in terms of human rights abuses the second thing that is going on is chinese companies are being delisted from the new york shock exchange ied global and chinese companies are being sort of reigned in by the chinese government because it's very important to understand that the chinese government is called the ccp for a reason they're the china communist party they are not a normal average democracy that people in the west may be used towards and because they are not the average democracy their government has a strong control over everything companies do because it's not like companies are free to do things and there's a constitution and there's like freedoms and there's certain regulations certain not it's they have full control over everything and if they want to get rid of you they can get rid of you in an instant and by the way if you refuse they bring guns to your head because that's how the government works it has a monopoly on violence on top of that charlie munger who is a very known investment person in the investment community obviously the vice president of berkshire hathaway just doubled his stake to about 72 million dollars in alibaba group about 602 000 shares up from when he had 300 000 which was just released a day ago so when we're talking about is immoral or not to ju to to invest in chinese stocks you have someone who really doesn't care uh and thinks alibaba which is one of china's law i think is china's biggest companies has a lot of potential it is grossly undervalued it was at a high of 309 in october of 2020 and today it's at like 123.
there is a lot of potential for it to grow and he's doubling down on his stake so in this video we're going to talk about a lot of the different perspectives between if it's immoral to invest in chinese stocks why maybe why may not be and ultimately what charlie munger thinks about the situation and why he's continuing to pour money deep into one of the biggest tax stocks in china the first thing to understand about the chinese economy is that it's very complex in the 1970s or up until around 1982 it was not a strong economy at all it was very very bad people were poor there wasn't enough food there wasn't enough production there wasn't enough energy they always had to rely on other partners china was not a self-sustaining economy at all this was not until deng xiaoping who became the leader of china after the death of mao zedong in 1976 changed everything basically this guy met up with the prime minister in singapore they saw all the stuff singapore was doing they had energy they had factories they had oil and gas they had like all this internal stuff going on in the company and he was like huh you guys are pretty much doing everything on your own and you don't need any help from a lot of other countries and you guys are pretty self-sustaining and you did this not by taxing the crap out of rich people but you let economic and market conditions dictate the amount of supply and demand that exists for every sector in the global economy or at least in singapore's economy and you put average people to work and uh deng xiaoping was just like we should probably do that and through coordination with jimmy carter and a lot of other different forces in the west he really started to understand okay if we let the market go wild meaning we let people start their own businesses we let people create new ideas we let people launch new products we can use what the west has sort of engineered and pioneered which is this global economic infrastructure of capitalism apply it via chinese principles and doctrines and still be able to get the best out of our original ideals which are the these these common prosperity for all philosophies and this idea of communism being this overall social good with the market conditions to be able to actually increase the ability for our economy to get bigger this changed everything by 2014 china was the largest economy in the world you had about 30 years of just letting people do whatever they wanted letting capitalism run free letting the free market be the free market and china took about 600 million people out of poverty i mean it was one of the most amazing transformations of all time and it is something that has been well documented in history for why capitalism is a good thing for human progress now even though they let people do capitalism and do their own thing the problem was the government didn't just let them only do their own thing the chinese government eventually started realizing okay the west is getting the the west has engineered the system of capitalism and we have been using it but now these tech companies are getting too powerful now people think they can really do whatever they want and the nature of an authoritarian regime which is pretty much what china is given it doesn't have free voting and democracy and a lot of that stuff and there's not really like true freedom of speech is that they are going to reign in when the regime doesn't feel like their authority is being respected which is why we saw jack ma which is the president or founder of alibaba group uh back in 2020 disappear after he went to a conference and said some like disparaging remarks about the chinese government it wasn't even that bad like the stuff people say in america is like a trillion times worse i think he just said some controversial comments about some regulations they passed and he was gone for about a couple months if jeff bezos had said some controversial statements about the government and he disappeared for a couple months financial media would go insane every single day they would be questioning where is jeff bezos where is he he's the ceo of one of the biggest public trading companies in the world there's no way that he can just go out of the public light like that it's when it's a public company you got to be a public person especially because you have billions if not hundreds of billions of dollars of people's money at stake we're talking about not just you know institutions we're talking about pension funds and all these like 401ks these are average people that are invested through these institutions in these funds and if you as a public official are gone the trust in the company reduces which means the stock purse reduces which means a lot of people are affected when you are the comp when you are the ceo of a public company it really matters and so for jack ma to leave for those couple months it really shook a lot of people in the west because they saw that china was having a lot of power additionally jack ma's ant financial group was supposedly going to be the largest ipo in history and because you know the chinese government really thought that that company was going to have too much power they thought that jack ma was sort of getting ahead of himself a little bit and feeling like he was the big dog they reigned it in and they stopped it from happening it was supposed to happen i think in october november 2020 and it hasn't happened yet they're still trying to figure out how they can get it done because the chinese government said not we're putting an end to this so the point here to understand is that even though the chinese government used capitalism and western values of a free market enterprise to build up the economic mobility of so many millions of people in china and you know china's one of the world's largest populations about 1.3 1.4 billion people they also have this overhead that doesn't let it get too big from a socio-cultural perspective to be able to make sure their values of common prosperity are always maintained leading some people to believe that there is a world in which china gets rid of a capitalist system not fully but really reigns it back because they only used it to let the world prosper or to let china prosper to let average people uh get some type of economic mobility but now that has gotten to such a big extent they don't need it to go rampant like we have throughout the rest of the world where there's just extreme extreme wealth inequality at that point they're like well you know we used it we got a lot of people out of poverty but now we should focus more on common prosperity so this brings up a very interesting question if all this internal turmoil is going on in china literally one of the main chinese companies dd global group have to resign from the new york stock exchange because china did not want it to be on the stock exchange anymore chinese stocks are getting hammered because of the uh internal uh problems within the government and then literally you know chopping off the ceo's heads in terms of making them step down and make them disappear from the public why is charlie munger doubling down his investment into china take a look at this clip i'll be back in a minute well i don't think i've got deep knowledge on exactly what works well in the internal politics of every other country who would have guessed that the chinese communists would improve their big country as much as they have in the last 30 years that surprised you well they didn't the first 20 years they had the cultural revolution it was crazy and now they have one of the greatest success records in the history of mankind i don't know about you but i did not predict it i didn't but but what so what is the secret to china's success then they copied singapore which i remember the communist leader said i don't care if the cat is black or white i care whether it catches mice and they copied a very wonderful famous chinese man in singapore and lo and behold they they found the right they found the right chinese leadership outside of china which amuses me now he was chinese but look at the way it worked in the whole history of the world no nation that beg has ever advanced that fast and they did it by having a bunch of poor people save half their income they did not use the wealth of the rich world to get ahead they they use the savings of poor people i am a huge admirer of what the chinese have accomplished so this brings up the final question that we have to answer is it immoral to invest in chinese stocks given everything that's going on the problems within the chinese government in terms of how they're treating other people and the actual sort of dictatorial regimes of like stopping people from doing what they want and stopping ceos from being public all that stuff is it still philosophically moral to invest in chinese companies here's my answer i'm looking forward to see what other people say in the comments yes it is absolutely moral to invest in chinese companies i think anyone who says it's immoral is like making a very weird philosophical philosophical argument now my counter argument is that it's a bad business decision in some scenarios right from a business perspective you might not want to invest in china because there's different forces that are operating which means you don't know if alibaba gets de-listed now i don't think that's going to happen we'll talk about that in a second but from a from a business perspective it may be a little bit harder from a moral perspective i don't think it's immoral now here are the couple reasons i don't think it's immoral at the end of the day business and ethics is incredibly complicated and when you're investing in a business a lot of times you're detaching it from all the ethical consequences that exist uh if you don't do that you really can't be an investor the reason for this is because businesses oftentimes have to do some unethical things or at least there there are objectively unethical things applied within the business even if the business is not intending to do unethical things so you know imagine how many people have done unethical things like i say that very broadly because it's meant to be broad using their iphone right people have probably planned stuff using their iphone they have probably robbed people planning up where to meet people like they've probably done a lot of things using that iphone but we can't blame apple for that because philosophically we have to recognize that apple just provides the product they've done a good service in giving people a catalyst to enhance and improve their lives and then people have their own free will to be able to do something with that iphone at the end of the day and if they choose to do something wrong with that if we were to blame apple for that we would not be able to survive as a society because this is the nature of individualistic beliefs like at the end of the day people have to be responsible for themselves are there collective assumptions are there collective problems if china's polluting a lot in the environment to make those iphones should we hold them accountable and should we make them change absolutely but holding them responsible for all the problems that exist via their product as an ethical issue i think is i think is not the strongest thing to do so when i say investing in china is not immoral if you're investing in chinese companies at the end of the day they are separated from their government like alibaba group and there are probably some like unethical things alibaba group has done which i'm sure every company is is akin to and holds blame for but at the end of the day they're just trying to make a business right they're just trying to provide jobs for people they're trying to provide opportunities they have so many subsidiaries in terms of commerce and alipay and there's they have this ali hollywood basically starting up right jack ma is really excited for that creating movies and media um it's gonna have to be dictated by how the chinese government feels about their movies and media but at the end of the day they have so many different services that they're offering to the 1.3 billion people in china and the other six billion people across the world that they're just trying to operate as a business and if the government is doing some things that are unethical immoral so from the western perspective they're not allowing freedom of speech that's immoral to us they may be you know not allowing freedom of religion because in china you really can't be religious that's immoral to us all of those individualistic values that we feel that the chinese government is not upholding to me have no impact in terms of the investment decision that you're making within chinese companies because an investment decision is i give you a dollar i want to back and i just need to feel good at night about how i get those two dollars back but just because i'm giving you one dollar and you're in this country that has these sort of dictatorial regimes and values doesn't mean that that one dollar to you is unethical additionally from a utilitarian perspective investing in chinese stocks is actually helping the economy a lot like utilitarianism is the branch of philosophy that says we should aim to give the greater good for the greater amount of people so if i do something it should aim to help society writ large when you're investing in companies you're giving more money to those companies which means they have more power to operate and go through their operations so in the context of china you know if you're giving money to alibaba group or neo or whatever obviously you want to see a return but you are making those companies more valuable more powerful and that in turn is helping chinese citizens create more products and services have more goods have just a better more efficient effective productive life so there's a very strong utilitarian argument that if you were to invest in chinese stocks you are theoretically helping right people who live in china uh because those companies play a major role in their lives so it's just funny to me when i go on twitter and i see like these investment managers say like screw china i'll never invest in china it's like you realize all of your operations and your supply chains for every american company you invest in are coming from china right you really like all these companies do business with china because you can't ignore china that's the conundrum and the paradox that exists within the 21st century and let's see if it gets solved in the 22nd century i won't be here you guys probably won't be here either but we're we're gonna it's gonna have to get resolved eventually right which is like america has different values the west has different values than china but china's so big and they've you know stolen i say that in a good way a lot of those western values in terms of capitalism to implement within their regime but they haven't implemented the social cultural values which are kind of go hand in hand you can't just say free market and then say no freedom of speech because the whole idea is freedom should be central to the core of a governing society and when you when you have this conundrum of uh like authoritarian values with free market it creates this weird paradox and the rest of the world is like how are we supposed to deal with this right because like this is not what we want to deal with but we kind of have to because you're you're supplying the world's goods and services you're supplying most of our food most of our rice most of our grains it's incredibly complicated and it's something that needs to be understood in a more meaningful way which is exactly what i think monger was talking about in that previous clip he's saying look the chinese economy is booming they they were the first people to really get everything they were they were the first to recognize what western values could do in a country that was governed by dictatorial regimes and socialist regimes and a lot of other countries around the world didn't get it they acted upon that and they blew up the country which is why he feels very ethical and comfortable investing in that company in that country because he knows there's going to be a big return and he knows this country is going to do really good things he's not thinking of it from a perspective of oh i'm investing in china therefore i'm giving the chinese government more power because if these chinese companies become more powerful intrinsically the government is going to become more powerful given their communist regime he's thinking it from two perspectives number one i'm making a return on my money which is the nature of how investing works and number two i am detaching my ethical concerns with the government if i have any with the investment i'm making in a business because at the end of the day i have to let that business operate and if there's good fundamentals to the business it is separated from the government and i'm just hoping for the best that the government's not going to shut down the business and i'm going to make a return on my money with the business which is why i think it is a hard decision financially to justify given the current political climate that's why i'm very hesitant to invest in china but morally it's really hard for me to believe that philosophically people don't want to invest in china for these like reasons oh those are my thoughts on the situation let me know what you guys think in the comments is it good to invest in china do you feel it's bad do you feel philosophically is bad do you feel business-wise it's bad looking forward to reading the comments my name is mitt thank you so much for watching i'll see you in the next one
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